New Study Shows Poverty, Not Age, the Key Factor in Teen Crashes

[The Emperor Fabulous]

Originally posted by Sava
why is Ozzy unable to accept the fact that teens are inexperienced drivers, naturally immature, more likely to be driving with friends (and hence, to be distracted), and as a result of these and other factors... more likely to be involved in accidents?

not to mention the fact that teenage brains have been proven (by recent studies) to be more prone to unstable behavior... not to mention the hormones that affect their brain chemistry...

all of these factors, combined with INEXPERIENCE... make it MORE LIKELY that teenagers will be involved in accidents...

are you completely blind to reality Ozzy?

but if you want to believe poverty causes accidents... whatever

Didn't I just say that?

[The Emperor Fabulous]

Not to mention:

Adults are more likely to have their own car.

Adults are more likely to drive farther distances.

Adults are more likely to have jobs that require driving.

Adults are more likely to actually have a license.

Adults are more likely to have an alcoholic beverage because it is legal.

[The Emperor Fabulous]

Originally posted by rah
That's what it is like in Illinois which I assume you are aware, Limited number of non-adults in the car when they're 16. I can't remember exactly when that limit is removed.

First 6 months of having a license, no under 18 riders unless a parent is present, in MA.

[OzzyKP]

Originally posted by lord of the mark
then why not give licenses to 8 year olds? Obviously inexperience is a factor, but theres some age thats optimal to get that experience. Your study is ONE, repeat ONE, entry into the discourse on when that age should be. There are many other studies, and the statistical limits of all of them should be weighed.


You cant just expect everyone to shut up and agree with you cause you post one study put out by your group. And then you attack a poster like myself for not critiquing a AAA study that i hadnt even seen. Frankly, your reactions on this thread are NOT making a case for the maturity of teens.

I wasn't attacking you specifically. But I just find it troubling how little people in general question any anti-teen reports or studies and how skeptical they are when any info shows something different.

If people are skeptical as a rule, then fine. If they are trusting as a rule, then fine. But the fact that they (in general, again not specifically attacking you) exhibit such blatant anti-youth bias when approaching such matters is quite problematic.

[:) Smiley]

Having been to many of these different parts of California I'm gonna say that geography may be as large a factor as poverty here.

The rural roads in the Central Valley are typically one lane in each direction with a stripe down the middle, and a straight shot fifty miles through the valley floor. Generally unlit at night, they intersect each other at right angles, sometimes with just a stop sign. People I know from the Valley will often do 75-90 mph on these roads, which would be impossible on an urban street.

Since high speed crashes are more likely to kill, this study needs to look at all accidents, and not just fatal ones.

[notyoueither]

Originally posted by KrazyHorse
If different insurance companies show a mean variation of 20% then the error on a single measurement of true risk should be ~14% (20%/sqrt2).

That seems to me to be very high. It is, for instance, much larger than the margin insurance companies operate on (insurance companies tend to break even in nominal terms, and use their float to turn a profit of ~4-5%)

Originally posted by rah
Having worked at a couple of different insurance companies I can attest that there is that much variability.
...


When you're talking numbers this large a single percentage point in loss ratio translates into huge dollars.

Is it possible that companies could be varying rates by geography to lessen exposure for things like crime, damage due to natural causes (hail, etc)?

Giving a discount in areas they have few policies and surcharges in areas where they have a lot?

[KrazyHorse]

Is it possible that companies could be varying rates by geography

Of course they do. That's quite possibly the largest component of the price you pay. My point was that both rate quotes were assuming the same location.

[Straybow]

Ah, youth is wasted on the young.

[Tuberski]

Originally posted by OzzyKP


I wasn't attacking you specifically. But I just find it troubling how little people in general question any anti-teen reports or studies and how skeptical they are when any info shows something different.

If people are skeptical as a rule, then fine. If they are trusting as a rule, then fine. But the fact that they (in general, again not specifically attacking you) exhibit such blatant anti-youth bias when approaching such matters is quite problematic.

I just don't understand why you want to make kids grow up before their time.

ACK!

[OzzyKP]

Because it IS their time. Their time to grow up has long past by the time our modern rules say they are allowed to grow up.

Why do you want to keep them children long after their time?

[Tuberski]

Originally posted by OzzyKP
Because it IS their time. Their time to grow up has long past by the time our modern rules say they are allowed to grow up.

Why do you want to keep them children long after their time?

How do you know it's their time?

If my 15 y.o. stepson wants to remain a kid, he can. If he wants to grow up at 16 or 17, he can. You seem to want to force these kids to grow up.

I say let them decide, they know far better than you or I.

ACK!

[OzzyKP]

But he can't grow up at 16 or 17. That's the thing. Exactly what I'm saying is let them decide, not bureaucrats in Washington or your state capitol. You can't get the right to vote or drive or anything any sooner no matter how mature or responsible you are.

I'm trying to give people more choice.

As for how I know, the idea that people remain children until 18 or 21 is a very, very new concept in human history. Indeed not only is it new for us, its unique to the West. Many other cultures don't have this problem. (they've got other problems to be sure)

Our artificial extension of childhood is against nature and against history.

[MRT144]

we also live longer now than in history. IT IS AGAINST NATURE AND AGAINST HISTORY!

[Urban Ranger]

Teen risks drop sharply with greater driving experience.

This seems to be stating the obvious.

[Urban Ranger]

Good call Smiley.

Poor teens tend to drive in poor areas, where the road conditions are worse than the better areas. Furthermore, teens, esp poor ones, usually have cars in worse conditions than older people.