When do you think Humans will start colonizing other planets?

[OzzyKP]

Originally posted by Seeker
In our own solar system?

Martian colonization could begin in the next 10-20 years if the financing was there. You really need Nuclear Thermal Propulsion to make it feasable in my opinion. The conditions needed are a prolonged period of prosperity around the world marked by a great reduction in the 'spikes' of tradtional capitalist 'boom and bust' cycles.
So 50-100 years or never.

Venus and some of the more slightly earth-like moons of Jupiter and Saturn would require tremendous effort and advanced technologies that only a unified World Government is capable of in my opinion, so 200-300 year or never.

I think you're missing the point. No one is gonna invest tremendous money, resources, and energy to colonize another planet just cause its cool and they've seen too many Star Trek episodes.

You need a reason to expand. Ditching capitalism and being unified and propserous don't really seem to me as legitimate triggers for leaving Earth.

Unless some minerals are found on Mars or the moon that are valuable enough to warrant the cost of exploiting them (doubtful) the only triggers I can think of would be tourism (its already starting) or some other political causes back home.

Look at the colonization of the Americas, the best, most appropriate guide we have for this. Why did people come here? To make a buck or to escape from persecution back home. (and to spread our religion, but I'm guessing we won't work too hard to set up missions among the martians).

Initially there may be a base set up on the moon, like Bush (right?) proposed simply to serve as a launch pad for further space exploration. Maaaaaybe because of tourism that could expand to have some permanent residents in the next 100 years. But it would be quite small, and even those "permanent" residents probably wouldn't live there for more than a few years at a time (at first at least).

Maaaaaaybe if we massively over populate Earth and there was some persecution and stuff then people would start going to the space colonies en masse. But if that happened it'd probably be in 200-300 years.

But ****, so much can change in 300 years, who can guess?

[Robert]

Never.
God placed us in this prison with walls of infinity.

I wish we could, but we will never reach any of the extraplanets and our solar planets aren't interesting for real colonization. Why would anyone want to live on bare rock?

[Pekka]

Never. We can't go to alien fields, because they own it and it would be racist to just go there. We're not even invited. We would just destroy their ecosystems as well and everything. Bring our crap culture of consumerism and evil there.

But we will do a mass suicide next week, putting bags over our heads that says 'sorry everyone'.

[Ted Striker]

The main trigger will be MONEY

It's always MONEY

Somehow there will be a Finn on board though

[DaShi]

Pekka Keep Humans Out of Space!

[binTravkin]

I think when Space Elevator, will be done, which some estimate at 2020, then it'll be only a few decades before we can do it, so my bet is 40-60 years from now.

[binTravkin]

Mars Colonization: Between 2250-2300 A.D.
Exploitation of the Outer Moons: 2300 A.D. - 2350 A.D.
Colonizing other Solar Systems: At least 10,000 years away, probably much longer

You're like that guy in 1800 who predicted that in y2000 everyone will still be moving around with horses.

[Blake]

Soon after a self replicating machine is invented that is released under not-too-restrictive liscening (or stealable). Once a colony in space or another planet can just build itself the cost goes way way down.

I suppose it's possible we could one day colonize space the hard way, but I think the smart way is more likely.

Or simply never in the case of catastrophic ecological meltdown or other natural or man-made disastor that wipes out humanity. (positive feedback cycle of carbon being released into the atmosphere? grey/green goo?).

[Leon Trotsky]

Humanity will sooner waste its resources in short-sighted whims. Unless Yang saves us all from extinction, that is.

[Sandman]

Preconditions:

A large, efficient economy generating vast surpluses. A war-torn, stagnating or heavily-polluting economy won't cut it.

A spirit of adventure. This is more difficult.

Comparisons with the Age of Exploration are not useful. For example, space colonization is the most expensive means of dealing with overpopulation imaginable. It will always be cheaper to control the population with other methods. And unlike the Age of Exploration, trade is impossible as well. There's nothing resembling spices or chinaware that can yield a quick profit (I'm not a believer in asteroid mining).

[_BuRjaCi_]

A large, efficient economy generating vast surpluses.
is not a precondition ( if you havent noticed there are wast surpluses in our econmy today, why do you think we need farm subsidies to employ farmers and produce way more food than we need while preventing agrarian based third world countries from developing ). Look at Sadams Iraq before it's invasion of Kuwait, it spen all it's oil money on weapons and got quite a formidable force (5th or 6th in world ranking I can't remember; sadly Saddam had no idea how to wage war and he eliminated anyone more competent tha him ) but the people lived in crappy conditions.If that isn't frivolis I don't know what is.
Today's economy is large enough we have sufficently advanced technology ( 6 months to Mars isn't that long, a Russian spent 2,5 years in orbit a few years ago- with the help of vodka ) we could colonise Mars with a few tousand people by 2020, the moon could house hundred's of permanent inhabitants not to mention turists. The stuff's there but most people consider the long term survival of the species a waste of money ( indirectly subsidising large SUV's that's the way to save the enviroment, that's the Americain way!).

[_BuRjaCi_]

I dont think a space elevator is fesable. I'd say fusion powerd planes will predate this ( 2080 or something ) wich will dramaticaly reduce orbital transport costs. Not to mention nanotech, just imagine ,dump a canister on Mars let the littel pests multiply for a decade or two then order them to build mines ( easy mineral and water acces- on the poles ), habitates, fuel production facilites and a few hydroponic farms and automated biolabs ( send an automated genteic bank to Mars and let the biolab synthisize tousands of geneticaly engenired seeds or microbes-food wats anyone ).
Let the AI manage it for 40 years; voila food suplies and all needed amnemnites to support tens of tousands of people by 2120, practicaly for free compared to shipping the materials there from here or even the moon. Nanotech, genetic engeniring and the AI needed will be developed by 2050 for comercial use the development will cost practiacaly nothing since it well only adapt comercial technology.

Now imagine a hundred canisters being droped.

Or an extremly advanced civ sending thousands of sublight ships to distant corners of the galaxy cariying advanced AI, nano and macro robots, genetic databanks of themselves and other life-forms ( the advanced AI would raise the children born on the planet or a tousand or so people suspended in hybernation ) The planet's a rock? No problem let the AI and the bots work a few tousand years while you sleep, using fussion to replicate any materials not native to the system or turning the entire planet into a space station if needed or just to get the fuel needed to go somwhere else.

[C0ckney]

ozzy

i can foresee a very limited human presence on the moon within my lifetime, but there'll have to be compelling economic reasons for anything more than that to happen.

[_BuRjaCi_]

A spirit of adventure is already, here there are by some studies that say, a thousand people in the world would be wiling to pay a few mill for a week on the ISS imagine the price drop to just a few doutzen K ( to transport you there in hibernation )+ a job opurtunity that probably pay's well and with virtual reality ( if I'm playing Civ I'm happy anywhere, imagine a dada plug into your spine feedenig you with information transporting you to any fantasy you want ) and russian vodka you won't even notice that you're living on a rock if you dont want to ( imagine trekkies role-playing on Mars, scaning with ridges and pointy ears in their space suits, they'd give anything for that, I'd be the time of their lives- well besides the adult only sensory simulations ).

[C0ckney]

burjaci, i get the feeling you watch rather a lot of sci-fi