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  • Iran threatens an oil embargo.

    They're claiming they'll "inflict pain" upon anyone country which opposes their quest for nuclear weapons and votes/voted to refer their case to the Security Council. Logically the only thing they can do is withhold oil though that would hurt them much more then it would hurt anyone else since the Iranian economy is in the crapper and they survive mainly on oil revenue.

    U.S.: Iran remarks 'provocative'

    VIENNA, Austria (CNN) -- The United States has dismissed Iran's comments that it can inflict "harm and pain" on Washington for its role in pushing for U.N. Security Council action over Tehran's refusal to halt its nuclear program.

    The White House said on Wednesday Iran continued to move in the wrong direction and would be better served to make the decision to work with the international community.

    "I think that provocative statements and actions only further isolate Iran from the rest of the world," White House press secretary Scott McClellan told reporters traveling with President George W. Bush to hurricane-affected states along the Gulf of Mexico, according to The Associated Press.

    Washington is seeking international pressure to force Iran to stop its nuclear program, which U.S. officials believe is aimed at developing nuclear weapons. Iran says its program is for civilian purposes.

    Earlier Iran, the world's No. 4 oil provider, said it would review its oil export policy if the Security Council tackles its case. European Union countries said this was now inevitable as Tehran had flouted demands to prove its program was peaceful.

    Javad Vaeedi, the deputy head for international affairs of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, blamed the United States for closing the door on diplomatic solutions to the situation.

    "In this stage we are trying to avoid confrontation," Vaeedi said.

    He hinted that if Iran is subject to U.N. sanctions, it could cause problems for the United States.

    "The United States may have the power to cause harm and pain but it is also susceptible to harm and pain," Vaeedi said. "So if the United States wishes to choose that path let the ball roll."

    After weeks of talks and diplomatic maneuvering over the crisis, the international community Wednesday moved one step closer to taking action against Iran.

    Mohamed ElBaradei, the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, formally presented his report to the United Nation's nuclear watchdog on Wednesday, the final day of the IAEA board of governors' meeting in Vienna.

    The report raised questions about Iran's claim that its pursuit of nuclear technology is for peaceful purposes only.

    Under the terms of an agreement reached last month, the matter of Iran's nuclear dossier will be handed over to the U.N. Security Council now that ElBaradei has presented his report to the board.

    The 12-page report states that the Iranians are testing 20 centrifuges and enriching uranium in 10 others, well shy of the thousands that would be required to produce enough fuel for nuclear weapons.

    The report showed that "the leaders in Iran have done nothing to raise international confidence" about what Tehran says is a peaceful nuclear energy program, according to Greg Schulte, the U.S. ambassador to the IAEA.

    "Quite the contrary, their behavior has only contributed to mounting international concerns about its pursuit of nuclear weapons," Schulte said in a statement.

    "The time has now come for the Security Council to take action."

    Over the past few months, Iranian officials have made veiled threats about what it would do if the matter is handed over to the council, which could issue sanctions against the Islamic republic.

    A modified Russian proposal, considered by some diplomats to be the last shot at diplomacy before the Security Council addresses the issue, went nowhere on Tuesday.

    High-level diplomats close to the IAEA told CNN's Matthew Chance that the proposal to let Iran enrich a small amount of uranium on its soil was floated by Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov during his trip to Washington on Tuesday.

    But Lavrov and U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice told reporters after their meeting that no such proposal was discussed, or even existed. They both stood by the original Russian plan to enrich uranium on Russian soil and then ship it to Tehran.

    Rice said the United States would not back away from its position "that enrichment and reprocessing on Iranian soil is not acceptable because of the proliferation risk."

    While Russia and the United States, both permanent members of the U.N. Security Council, announced their solidarity in finding a diplomatic solution to the crisis, a rift could emerge should the council consider sanctions.

    Russia and another permanent council member, China, have voiced their opposition to sanctions. Lavrov would not address the issue in Washington, saying no proposal for sanctions was under consideration.

    Talks between Iran and the EU3 -- Britain, France and Germany -- stalled in January when Iran began small-scale uranium enrichment and ended its voluntary cooperation with the IAEA, which had been conducting surprise inspections.

    The United States and European Union demanded that Iran reconsider its decision, but Tehran accused the West of holding it to higher standards than it does the rest of the world.

    Copyright 2006 CNN. All rights reserved.This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed. Associated Press contributed to this report.


    Personally, I think it is all hot air. The Iranians are in the wrong, they know they're in the wrong, and all they can really do is make ideal threats. Even the Russians and the Chinese are in on this so it seems sanctions are going to happen. That said I don't think sanctions will work. If the Iranian government is hell bent on getting nuclear weapons no matter what it costs their people, their economy, and their political position then they will get them unless they are removed militarially which won't happen. That said sanctions are a useful tool because it can show the Iranian people how poorly their leaders have done in managing the nation's economy and that (over time) build up popular resentment against the one party Islamic state and increase the calls for change.

    What do folks think? Will the Iranians go through with their claims to "inflict pain" on the people who oppose them or are they just wind bags like the North Koreans? Should the UN deal with Iran's breaking of NNPT requirements and failing to live up to UN resolutions?
    Try http://wordforge.net/index.php for discussion and debate.

  • #2
    Just two more cents from me. I don't think the Iranians could maintain a total export ban for long so they'd quickly have to resort to a policy of simply not directly exporting oil to certain countries. Since oil is easily traded on world markets this would be the same as not having any embargo at all.

    So how do I see this playing out? The case will go before the security council, Iran will threaten but do nothing, the council will impose sanctions, then the Iranians will announce a partial export ban on their oil. This export ban will be targeted at the US and countries which voted for sanctions but will have little effect since the oil will simply be resold via 3rd parties.

    The sanctions will cause great damage to the Iranian people and their crappy economy will get even worse but the elites will continue their nuclear program and might even speed it up. The Israelis will at some point likely attempt to take out Iran's nuclear facilities however they will only be partially successful. They'll take out 1-2 facilities but the Iranians have deliberately spread out their production capacity and built redundent facilities so it will slow down but not stop the Iranian nuclear program. After that happens everything is up in the air.
    Try http://wordforge.net/index.php for discussion and debate.

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    • #3
      If Iran want's to stop exporting oil: fine with me, they have every right to decide if and to whom they sell anything.

      I know little of the NPT, but if they broke the rules of that treaty, they should be sanctioned as the treaty itself states.

      There is no universal ban on nuclear weapons (as India, Pakistan, Israel and South-Africa have shown) so there is little ground to stand on to disallow any country nukes on a moral ground.
      "post reported"Winston, on the barricades for freedom of speech
      "I don't like laws all over the world. Doesn't mean I am going to do anything but post about it."Jon Miller

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      • #4
        I don't think they have the production capabilities to have any effect, and I don't believe that they would do it anyway.
        I drank beer. I like beer. I still like beer. ... Do you like beer Senator?
        - Justice Brett Kavanaugh

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        • #5
          I'm moving to Fort McMurray.
          What?

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          • #6
            LOL

            Iran non oil related exports, 20%

            fruits and nuts, carpets, caviar
            I need a foot massage

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            • #7
              with korans a close 4th.
              "Everything for the State, nothing against the State, nothing outside the State" - Benito Mussolini

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              • #8
                IIRC Iran's achilles heel is its dependence on refined gasoline. Although oil rich they lack the refinery capacity to support their internal needs. Methinks they are on the short end of the proverbial stick if they want to play embargo games.
                "Just puttin on the foil" - Jeff Hanson

                “In a democracy, I realize you don’t need to talk to the top leader to know how the country feels. When I go to a dictatorship, I only have to talk to one person and that’s the dictator, because he speaks for all the people.” - Jimmy Carter

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                • #9
                  lol bombing begins in 5 minutes LOL
                  To us, it is the BEAST.

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                  • #10
                    Originally posted by Richelieu
                    I'm moving to Fort McMurray.
                    Why not -- there is oil everywhere!!! Actually anywhere in Alberta will do . I was talking to a geologist who indicated that there are not many places in Alberta where you won't "encounter hydrocarbons" but the trick is finding them in commercial quantities
                    You don't get to 300 losses without being a pretty exceptional goaltender.-- Ben Kenobi speaking of Roberto Luongo

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                    • #11
                      Ohh and oederin points out, a one supplier embargo on specific customers is useless if said supplier continues to provide the same quantities to other customers
                      You don't get to 300 losses without being a pretty exceptional goaltender.-- Ben Kenobi speaking of Roberto Luongo

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                      • #12
                        I think Israel should bomb their nuke facilities. No one likes them anyways. . It would be a PR nightmare for the U.S. to bomb them.

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                        • #13
                          yeah

                          it would totally make the muslim world hate us

                          like

                          so mad

                          they would fly planes into our buildings and stuff
                          To us, it is the BEAST.

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                          • #14
                            We haven't had any planes fly into buildings lately. Believe it or not, there are different degrees of hatred. It is possible to piss off even more of the muslim world. We could create hundreds of thousands of potential terrorists. Things aren't really that bad right now. Yeah the Iraq thing pissed a lot of people off, but most muslims and middle easterners aren't out to destroy the U.S.

                            We are messing with fire here. Once nukes become prevailent on the black market, the U.S. will cease to exist. I can't possibly see how the U.S. can defend itself against nukes.

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                            • #15
                              so what's worse

                              angry muslims

                              or an islamic fundamentalist nation with nukes



                              (if it takes you longer than a second to come up with the answer... please starve yourself to death)
                              To us, it is the BEAST.

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