China Warns U.S. on Taiwan

[Vince278]

Originally posted by DaShi
WWIII just looms upon the horizon, doesn't it?

Basically my earlier point. Try this scenario: China is in a position to start it anytime it wants by going after Taiwan and encouraging NK to join in on the chaos by attacking SK and Japan. The US is too deeply entrenched there to avoid getting involved.

With the US tied down in Iraq and Afghanistan, China and NK won't have a better chance to get what they want.

Iran and a few other Islamic nations rise up in the midst of the chaos to take advantage of the perceived US weakness in the region. Before long, they attack Israel which will encourage more Arab nations to join in. Throw another oil embargo into the mix and stir.

The EU will be divided and the NATO treaty cannot be invoked because no members were directly attacked. The UK will side with the US along with a few others.

One wild card is Russia. The best thing they can do is nothing. They would gain much by trying to be a peace maker then pick up all of the pieces when its over. India would be better off trying to stay out of it but may get dragged in by the Arabs and China. The UN becomes worse than useless.

[Spiffor]

Originally posted by Vince278
With the US tied down in Iraq and Afghanistan, China and NK won't have a better chance to get what they want.

China and NK want different things. NK is increasingly a liability for China.

Iran and a few other Islamic nations rise up in the midst of the chaos to take advantage of the perceived US weakness in the region. Before long, they attack Israel which will encourage more Arab nations to join in.

I strongly doubt that a country (and an alliance even less) will wage a conventional war against an Israel with nukes. Besides, most Arabic countries and Iran have too deep domestic problems to wage an all-out war. Israel is very convenient as a scapegoat, but it has repeatedly proven that it is a terrible choice of a military target.

Throw another oil embargo into the mix and stir.

That's a real possibility, but an oil embargo would seriously hurt every power on Earth (bar Russia), not just the west. Actually, I wouldn't be suprised that China and India are more oil-dependent than the west.

Overall, you seem to forget that the presence of nukes makes war between great powers only possible in the periphery, at least until efficient countermeasures are in place. As such, no nuclear power will consider a direct military confrontation with another as a viable option. Even China.

For the time being, China has a longlasting and cohesive strategy of harsh diplo talk and some military posturing wrt Taiwan, in the hope that the US ends up considering Taiwan as a liability. This strategy can only work if the US continues to become increasingly dependant to China, to its industry, to its reserve dollars, etc. My guess is that the Chinese leaders hope that the US will realize that they need China infinitely more than Taiwan, and that, when the eventual push comes to shove, the US will choose to stand by and avoid getting economically burnt, rather than defending a tiny pawn such as Taiwan.

The invasion of Taiwan will occur only once the Chinese are sure that it will be only a war between the mainland and Taiwan, and when they'll be certain that the US won't militarly interfere.

[Vince278]

Originally posted by Spiffor
China and NK want different things.

Certainly, but both will benefit.

Originally posted by Spiffor
I strongly doubt that a country (and an alliance even less) will wage a conventional war against an Israel with nukes.

Sanity isn't Iran's strong suit right now. Same could be said of Syria and a few others. Also, a first use of nukes by Israel would make them look bad and they are less able to handle a retalitory strike.

Originally posted by Spiffor
That's a real possibility, but an oil embargo would seriously hurt every power on Earth (bar Russia), not just the west. Actually, I wouldn't be suprised that China and India are more oil-dependent than the west.

Who said anything about a general embargo? They can still supply China or anyone else they want.

Originally posted by Spiffor
Overall, you seem to forget that the presence of nukes makes war between great powers only possible in the periphery, at least until efficient countermeasures are in place. As such, no nuclear power will consider a direct military confrontation with another as a viable option. Even China.

Times are a changin'. I wouldn't take anything for granted. Besides, a direct attack on US soil would bring in NATO. The US itself would be reluctant to nuke China to avoid escalating the conflict. NK, on the other hand, is crazy enough to try it.

Originally posted by Spiffor
The invasion of Taiwan will occur only once the Chinese are sure that it will be only a war between the mainland and Taiwan, and when they'll be certain that the US won't militarly interfere.

Unlikely. But then Iraq thought it had a green light from the US before it attacked Kuwait.

[Sikander]

It would be difficult to supply anyone with oil that the U.S. didn't want to see supplied with oil during a general war like this.

[Sikander]

Originally posted by Pekka
Well Taiwan is basically the Chinese who went smart. China PRC is embarrased and they want to flex some muscles, but it's even more embarrasing as they try to fix relations with Japan. Because they really are not trying that one either. Every other day they threaten that the relations will go dry if they don't get the behaviour they want in Japan. Which they don't.

They're all talk. While they have power, a lot of it, the only way they'll work is aligning themselves and bury the hatchet with their dissident little neighbours. If not, well, they can bump their collective communist heads into the wall. THere's too much Western interest in there, they can't do anything. Unless they want to burn it all down and drag everyone else into the flames with them.

Good post.

[Agathon]

Whiny Americans interfering in other people's business.

Oddly enough, China didn't illegally invade a sovereign nation under false pretences for no apparent reason. Yet the Americans ***** and moan about their slow decline in world affairs.

[Vince278]

Originally posted by Agathon
Oddly enough, China didn't illegally invade a sovereign nation under false pretences for no apparent reason.

The Dalai Lama would disagree.

[Sikander]

Hey, those were real pretenses!

[dannubis]

woho !!!

now you are on the same moral level as china !

finally you realise !!!

[C0ckney]

a conflict over taiwan would provide us with a welcome opportunity to solve china's overpopulation problem

[Agathon]

Originally posted by Vince278

The Dalai Lama would disagree.

They had a perfectly good reason. You do not leave a militarily weak state between yourself and an enemy (in this case India).

Tibet is doomed by its location.

[binTravkin]

They had a perfectly good reason. You do not leave a militarily weak state between yourself and an enemy (in this case India).

Tibet is doomed by its location.

Wait, why isn't Taiwan then?

or better yet:

They have a perfectly good reason. You do not leave a militarily weak state between yourself and a strategically important geographical region which might be called enemy's territory (in this case US's) by the vast number of enemy military displaced there..

Taiwan is doomed by its location.

[Saras]

aggie, you're the best!

[Pekka]

Agathon, taking trolling to new dimensions! So outrageous, still so tempting to bite.. must...resist....calling....him...DL:.. NNRRRGH!

[SlowwHand]

Originally posted by Agathon
Whiny Americans interfering in other people's business.

Oddly enough, China didn't illegally invade a sovereign nation under false pretences for no apparent reason. Yet the Americans ***** and moan about their slow decline in world affairs.

It's ignotantass statements like this that make me lean towards isolationism.
Kick back and watch. Pass the popcorn.