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Is It Time To Short Goog?

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  • Is It Time To Short Goog?

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    NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Investors are pushing Google Inc. (GOOG) for more information about business trends, as steep share-price declines and stomach-turning volatility recently stretch their tolerance of the company's tight-lipped approach to investor relations.
    On Tuesday, modest comments about slowing growth from the company's financial chief unnerved investors already skittish after fourth-quarter results last month that for the first time fell short of Wall Street expectations. Google's stock tumbled 7.1% to $362.62 Tuesday, erasing a tentative two-week rebound from a large post-earnings drop.
    Now investors, less forgiving of Google's maverick ways, will be looking for new clarity on Thursday, when executives will spend four hours talking to Wall Street at the company's annual analyst meeting. Investors are holding their breath in the meantime, keeping Google's stock essentially flat Wednesday at $365.43, up only 0.7%.
    Analysts don't expect Google to relent on its refusal to provide explicit financial guidance. But amid heightened risk around the shares, analysts are stepping up the pressure for more details about the company's business strategy and progress. Two analysts from top securities firms, for instance, published lengthy lists of questions for management in the last week.
    Google, when it filed for its initial public offering in April 2004, said it wouldn't provide financial forecasts. It cited an inability to provide narrow dollar ranges and an unwillingness to distract managers, charged with making the best long-term decisions for the company, with short-term targets. Google has since taken its pledge to what some consider extremes, providing little information to help investors get a handle on its growth trajectory. It won't even provide a schedule of speakers for the analyst meeting.
    A Google spokeswoman couldn't be immediately reached for comment.
    The company's approach to Wall Street stands in stark contrast to its approach to advertisers, to whom it provides ample information, via a free tool dubbed Google Analytics, to help them make rational decisions about keyword-ad prices - and avoid potential pricing bubbles. It also flies in the face of its pledge to users to make the world's information universally accessible and useful.
    On Wednesday, UBS analyst Benjamin A. Schachter published a four-page chart with questions for management on 23 themes covering everything from expenses to product plans to new ad models to click fraud. Question No. 23 asked about the possibilities for change in Google's relationship with Wall Street.
    Citing bruised confidence "in our and The Street's collective ability to accurately forecast revenue and operating expenses" following Google's quarterly report, Schachter said "it is difficult to recommend the shares in the near term." He rates the stock neutral. UBS has an investment-banking relationship with Google.
    Schachter's manifest followed a nine-item "wish list" published last week by Bear Stearns analyst Robert S. Peck. "In order for the analyst day to be a positive catalyst for the stock, the company will need to provide more clarity on a host of issues that we think the Street would like answered," he said. Bear Stearns has a business relation with Google.
    Wish No. 1: Answers to a slew of questions about the health of Google's advertising system and improvements in its ability to wring ad dollars from traffic to its search engine and other products, such as its email and local-search services.
    I never understood how the stock got so high and their shady public relations is troublesome. I like the company, I use to work right next door to them, but I wonder if they overinflated..

    Thoughts?
    Monkey!!!

  • #2
    Never buy into a fad.
    One day Canada will rule the world, and then we'll all be sorry.

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    • #3
      It was time to short GOOG about 2 weeks ago.
      12-17-10 Mohamed Bouazizi NEVER FORGET
      Stadtluft Macht Frei
      Killing it is the new killing it
      Ultima Ratio Regum

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      • #4
        I predicted what was it, 1-2 months ago that both AAPL and GOOG were substantially overvalued and would drop substantially?
        "The issue is there are still many people out there that use religion as a crutch for bigotry and hate. Like Ben."
        Ben Kenobi: "That means I'm doing something right. "

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        • #5
          Don't sell Asher short either.

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          • #6
            On January 4, 5, and 6, with GOOG's price at $445, $451, and $465, respectively, I shorted the stock.

            Or at least I did something close. I bought some very out-of-the-money puts. +GOURT. June expiry. $200 strike. Each contract cost me $35. Since the stock has declined to $360, each contract is now worth $140. A nice tidy speculation, I think you will agree.

            That said, I don't know whether I would make the same speculation today. There are a lot of buyers for the stock, who can move GOOG to the upside in an instant. On February 15, the stock gained $25 in a single day on no apparent news.

            Also, I think GOOG's PR is the opposite from shady. In the article above, replace "investor" with "Wall Street analysts." It does no good whatsoever for the long-term investors to get guidance from the company. Rather, guidance is a way of giving inside information to Wall Street analysts. GOOG's not playing Wall Street's game.
            Last edited by DanS; March 1, 2006, 21:46.
            I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891

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            • #7
              Originally posted by DanS
              Or at least I did something close. I bought some very out-of-the-money puts.
              Smart. There's nothing like selling short and then seeing the stock go thru the roof. The worst that could happen to you is that you lose your investment.
              Last edited by Zkribbler; March 1, 2006, 21:54.

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              • #8
                That's a lesson that I learned courtesy of randomturn losing so much money in the 90s selling Amazon.com short.

                My pocketbook thanks you, randomturn!
                I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891

                Comment


                • #9
                  I wouldnt short it anymore than I'd buy it. Its just too unstable (plus it'll quickly move back up to $400).

                  I bought some DNA this morning when it went down a dollar on good news from the FDA (I have to wonder about the sanity of some investors).
                  We need seperate human-only games for MP/PBEM that dont include the over-simplifications required to have a good AI
                  If any man be thirsty, let him come unto me and drink. Vampire 7:37
                  Just one old soldiers opinion. E Tenebris Lux. Pax quaeritur bello.

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                  • #10
                    I've owned DNA for over 5 years now, I bought more about 1 month ago
                    Monkey!!!

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                    • #11
                      Originally posted by Asher
                      I predicted what was it, 1-2 months ago that both AAPL and GOOG were substantially overvalued and would drop substantially?
                      I did it over 3 months ago. PWNED.
                      DISCLAIMER: the author of the above written texts does not warrant or assume any legal liability or responsibility for any offence and insult; disrespect, arrogance and related forms of demeaning behaviour; discrimination based on race, gender, age, income class, body mass, living area, political voting-record, football fan-ship and musical preference; insensitivity towards material, emotional or spiritual distress; and attempted emotional or financial black-mailing, skirt-chasing or death-threats perceived by the reader of the said written texts.

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                      • #12
                        good job
                        Monkey!!!

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                        • #13
                          My, thank you.
                          DISCLAIMER: the author of the above written texts does not warrant or assume any legal liability or responsibility for any offence and insult; disrespect, arrogance and related forms of demeaning behaviour; discrimination based on race, gender, age, income class, body mass, living area, political voting-record, football fan-ship and musical preference; insensitivity towards material, emotional or spiritual distress; and attempted emotional or financial black-mailing, skirt-chasing or death-threats perceived by the reader of the said written texts.

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                          • #14
                            It was still going up 3 months ago.
                            "The issue is there are still many people out there that use religion as a crutch for bigotry and hate. Like Ben."
                            Ben Kenobi: "That means I'm doing something right. "

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