Let the good times roll again! -- 274,000 new jobs

[Kidlicious]

Originally posted by Oerdin
Compared to the jobless recovery we had a few years ago this is good though I keep hearing NPR saying that compared to what we should be doing this late in the cycle job growth is lagging. DanS keeps saying job growth is fantastic so I'm a little confused. It sounds like the job growth is going well but is slightly below what people expected though I don't know the hard figures.

The Fed wasn't raising rates a few years ago though. I don't think the employment situation warrants the interest rate hikes. That's why I think job growth will decline in the coming months. I don't think we're going to see job growth the way that we used to. It certainly isn't dependent on profits or productivity anymore.

I'm also at a loss to understand what's going on with wages. I see some reports that say wages are up and others that say inflation adjusted they're down. I suspect that the middle class and the upper class are seeing very good wage increases while those who have few skills or experience (meaning the lower class) are making slightly less due to foreign competition. Again, I'm not positive that is what is occuring so some data would be interesting to see.

I doubt if many people are getting much wage increases actually. The job market is tight in some places, but there's no real drive from employers to hire like they once did. At this time employers are very conservative about hiring.

[Whoha]

Originally posted by Oerdin
Do we have any information on the median take home pay of the average American worker over the last couple of years?

In manufacturing: it peaked in 1978. 28 years ago. today such wages have fallen back to levels reached in 1972.

http://tradealert.us/view_art.asp?Prod_ID=2205

"There’s a new glut on world markets. No, I’m not talking about the gluts of Chinese apparel or shares of Google stock bought at $475 each or of sub-prime U.S. lenders. I’m talking about the new glut of studies claiming that what really ails the U.S. economy is a shortage of skilled workers.
...
"

the short and skinny of this is that according to the NAM survey companies aren't really spending money to train existing workers, and aren't raising wages: two things that they should be tripping over themselves to do if they were desparate for skilled workers.

[Ogie Oglethorpe]

Originally posted by Whoha


the short and skinny of this is that according to the NAM survey companies aren't really spending money to train existing workers, and aren't raising wages: two things that they should be tripping over themselves to do if they were desparate for skilled workers.

Its kind of a vicious cycle, the ever increasing disposability of the worker and/or mobility of the worker makes industry less likely to provide much more than bare essential trainings as the financial return is much less certain than in days past.

[Whoha]

especially if they won't also raise wages to try and hold on to that worker.

[MosesPresley]

I don't know how you guys are measuring inflation. Here in Delaware, the homeless rate just jumped 50%. Natural gas caused heating bills to double. Sewer rates have climbed 40%. And the cap restriction is being lifted from electricity in May and the rate hike is expected to be 50%. Joined with the higher price of gasoline and the higher costs of food, I don't see where wages have kept pace.

[Lawrence of Arabia]

I don't know how you guys are measuring inflation. Here in Delaware, the homeless rate just jumped 50%. Natural gas caused heating bills to double. Sewer rates have climbed 40%. And the cap restriction is being lifted from electricity in May and the rate hike is expected to be 50%. Joined with the higher price of gasoline and the higher costs of food, I don't see where wages have kept pace.

Let the Good Times Roll

[Colon™]

Originally posted by DanS

Don't be so predictable. Saw that one coming lightyears away.

The problem with your "near record" statement is that you're completely ignoring the effects at the margin. Labour participation rates don't fluctuate by several percents a year, they only do so by several tenths of a percent, at most. Several tenths of a percent up or down every year make all the difference. For instance, the fall of the employment rate from 67.0 % ending December '00 to 66.7% ending December '01 was associated by a rise of the unemployment rate from 3.9% to 5.7%, and a real compensation/hour that declined by 0.1% Q4 '00 compared to Q4 '01. In that light a decline from a peak of 67.3% to 66.0% now shouldn't be taken so lightly.

Seriously, the low-points reached in 2004 and 2005 were the lowest since 1988, and you're arguing we're near record levels?

[Ted Striker]

Originally posted by Oerdin


Compared to the jobless recovery we had a few years ago this is good though I keep hearing NPR saying that compared to what we should be doing this late in the cycle job growth is lagging. DanS keeps saying job growth is fantastic so I'm a little confused. It sounds like the job growth is going well but is slightly below what people expected though I don't know the hard figures.

I'm also at a loss to understand what's going on with wages. I see some reports that say wages are up and others that say inflation adjusted they're down. I suspect that the middle class and the upper class are seeing very good wage increases while those who have few skills or experience (meaning the lower class) are making slightly less due to foreign competition. Again, I'm not positive that is what is occuring so some data would be interesting to see.

DanS has adopted teh Roland technique where if you say something for 2 years straight you'll be right 1 time out of 10 so that makes up for the other 9 times.

[Ted Striker]

My empirical observations that pwn DanS's silly job growth numbers say that the job market has FINALLY recovered.


Took long enough.

[Kidlicious]

I think the Fed doesn't have a good handle on the corporate culture. There's no real danger of wages driving inflation. Corporations still have a bare bones mentality, and I don't see that changing anytime in the near future. I don't think the level of skilled workers matters, except that if there was a greater supply that wages would be lower.

[DanS]

Originally posted by Colon™
Don't be so predictable. Saw that one coming lightyears away.

It wasn't meant to be hidden.

The problem with your "near record" statement is that you're completely ignoring the effects at the margin. Labour participation rates don't fluctuate by several percents a year, they only do so by several tenths of a percent, at most. Several tenths of a percent up or down every year make all the difference.

I think you know my opinion on all of this. The participation rate shows an overall picture through the decades (we are near record highs). However, I question whether we can put much stock in year-to-year fluctuations, considering that we don't have such a finely ground notion of the number of people available to the job market (we were more than 2% off by the end of last decade by the time we got around to the census).

On the other hand, the measurement for payrolls is a lot more precise and trustworthy. That's why I quote the figures so often.

[Ted Striker]

The Participation rate is crap in general, it's nothing more than an estimate at best.

[Colon™]

Bull****. What's that in the title of this thread, huh? You're using employment figures as the main argument for your cheerleading so don't start plunging your head into the sand when you come across something that doesn't agree with it.

And the fact is that ever since 2000 compensation has failed to keep up with productivity, year after year. Not to mention the actual wages since these have been growing even slower than total compensation due to surging healthcare bills. Does that indicate that tight labour market you've been hyping all along?

[Ted Striker]

Yep

The jobs are there but the compensation is flat, because of the factors mentioned. (McJobs, healthcare, etc).

[DanS]

You're using employment figures as the main argument for your cheerleading

That's right. Payroll figures. Presumably, these figures are very precise and very accurate, at least as far as these things go.

And the fact is that ever since 2000 compensation has failed to keep up with productivity, year after year.

Indeed, corporate profits are near post-war highs. But eventually, profits will ease and the workers will gain the benefits of these productivity gains.