Red Sox Pick up OPB Machine - Ready for 06 World Series

[Apocalypse]

Originally posted by Lawrence of Arabia
plus, I predict NL wildcard will come outta the NL East this year. With 19 games against the Marlins, theres no way the Mets dont take 2nd in the league. (Could be another reason why the AL wildcard always seems to come outta the AL east, with 19 games against tampa bay)

Marlins will improve throughout the season...they have a young team, not necessarily a bad team.

Astros will take the Wild Card again though so it doesn't matter.

[Sava]

the Marlins are awful... they will be horrendous

the Astros will finish around or below .500

[Apocalypse]

Originally posted by Sava
the Astros will finish around or below .500

How do you figure?

[Arrian]

On the White Sox:

January 31, 2006
Prospectus Matchups
Windy City Precedent

by Jim Baker

Let’s face it, White Sox fans--you don’t like statheads at the moment. First of all, your general manager didn’t come off very well in a best-selling book about the analytical revolution in baseball. Then, prior to the 2005 season, nobody in the media--analytical branch or otherwise--picked your team to go all the way. (No, Ken Harrelson does not really count as media.) So, because we were wrong, the laugh is on us.

Of course, I would like to point out that it’s much more fun to surprise people than it is to be expected to win. Expecting to win every year makes one jaded. When you go to the store, you expect to find bread there and when you find it in the bread aisle, what joy is there in that? That’s what life is like for a Yankee fan: they expect to find their bread awaiting them every time out. Now, if you go the store hoping to find a Faberge Egg tucked away in the hardware aisle and you actually do, well, isn’t that much more gratifying?

In any event, if Sox fans hated statheads before, wait until the predictions for 2006 start coming out and they find their team pegged for second, third, and--for those keen on a Tiger awakening--even fourth. There’ll be hell to pay sure in Chi-town then, by gum. General manager Kenny Williams even predicted such a reaction from the experts immediately after the World Series ended, saying he fully expected nobody would predict the White Sox would repeat once the preseason picks came out.

The inescapable truth is that the White Sox did play over their heads during the 2005 season. Even the most diehard Cell habitué must concede that. They scored and allowed about enough runs to win in the low nineties and ended up instead with 99 victories. This will be the main cause for doubts about their 2006 chances among the stat-reliant crowd and their fellow travelers in the media. It would also appear that the Indians, a better team on paper last year, are in a position to hold their value come the new season, as they underperformed based on their differential. It’s certainly no guarantee that they are due to live up to or exceed it this year, but it holds more promise than the polar outcome.

Wanting to bridge the gap between embittered Sox supporter and know-it-all media types, I set out to find some recent precedents for teams that had similar run differentials to the 2005 Chicago squad. I wanted to see what happened to them the following year in hopes of finding some examples of teams that did what Chicago did last year and either improved or, at least, held their ground. I went back 25 useable seasons, beginning with 1975 (1980-81 and 1993-95 are not useable because of dissimilar game totals). I first identified the teams that came within eight runs either way of Chicago’s 96-run differential (741 RS – 645 RA).

Of course, not all 96-run differentials are created equally. They don’t predict won-loss records the same way the further to the extreme in total runs scored they are. (See Rockies; Colorado) So, in the search for good comps, a team like the 1996 Mariners didn’t make the cut in spite of dialing in very close with a 98-run differential. This is because they totaled 1,888 runs scored and allowed--500 more than last year’s White Sox. In those run-heavy environs, they were expected to win three fewer games even though their differentials were about equal.

I settled on 12 teams that were within eight runs in differential either way (88 to 104) and were about 100 runs total on either side of the White Sox’ 1,386. One of these 12 was the 1976 Athletics, a team I decided to heave out of the study because their owner, Charles O. Finley, purposefully denuded the roster of talent and they dropped 24 games in the standings. That is not a proper precedent for the 2006 White Sox, a club that is returning most of its starters.

What we have then are these eleven teams:

1976 Kansas City Royals
Record: 90-72, 713-611
Following season: 102-60, 822-651
White Sox fans--look no further. Here is the story you can look to for inspiration. The Royals went from a rather pedestrian division-winning season to having their best year in franchise history.


1984 Chicago Cubs
Record: 96-65, 762-658
Following season: 77-84, 686-729
The White Sox got more out of their 96-run differential than any team on this list, bagging 99 wins. These Cubs tied for second.


1986 California Angels
Record: 92-70, 786-684
Following season: 75-87, 770-803
Oh that wacky AL West in the mid-‘80s: one minute you’re in the ALCS, the next you’re in last place watching a team from your division with a negative run differential win the World Series.


1989 San Francisco Giants
Record: 92-70, 690-600
Following season: 85-77, 719-710
Will Clark slipped from a .346 EqA to .299 and Kevin Mitchell went from .351 to .314. The loss of Rick Reuschel to injury didn’t help. Neither did Scott Garrelts showing the signs that would end his career a year later.


1990 Cincinnati Reds
Record: 91-71, 693-597
Following season: 74-88, 689-691
The Nasty Boys weren’t quite as nasty and a tenuous starting corps got a little more tenuous. Result: 94 extra runs to overcome.


1992 Pittsburgh Pirates
Record: 96-66, 693-595
Following season: 75-87, 707-806
Yes, they lost Barry Bonds, but their scoring actually went up the next year, albeit not enough to keep up with the league average of more than half a run per game. It was the pitching that really got into the spirit of the new scoring environment, surrendering over a run more per game than the previous year, nearly doubling the league-wide inflation.


1992 Minnesota Twins
Record: 90-72, 747-653
Following season: 71-91, 693-830
Like the ’93 Pirates, the ’93 Twins pitchers took to the new offensive surge with a little too much exuberance while the offense didn’t get the memo.


1992 Toronto Blue Jays
Record: 96-66, 780-682
Following season: 95-67, 847-742
Another success story. The Jays parlayed another fairly modest run margin into a second-straight World Championship. More so than the ’76/’77 Royals, this is probably the team the White Sox community should keep in mind when wanting to vent optimism for the upcoming year.


1996 San Diego Padres
Record: 91-71, 771-682
Following season: 76-86, 795-891
There’s no way around it: when you give your opponents 200 extra runs, bad things are going to happen. Even the biggest hater on the planet wouldn’t predict that kind of largesse for the ’06 White Sox.


1997 Los Angeles Dodgers
Record: 88-74, 742-645
Following season: 77-85, 793-787
In terms of differential and total runs scored and runs allowed, this is the single-most similar team to the 2005 White Sox. They underperformed in ’97 and overperformed in ’98. Had they reversed the two performances, they would have won the division in 1997.


2003 Philadelphia Phillies
Record: 86-76, 791-697
Following season: 86-76, 840-781
This is one way to do it: play almost the same, losing about a run in differential a week for the year and move five games closer to first place in the process.


Overall, it doesn’t look good. Of the 11 teams, only two improved the following year and one of those wasn't by very much (seven runs, ’92 Jays). Their average record in the first season was 92-70. That dropped to 82-80 the following year.

It is probably not realistic to hope the White Sox can outstrip their differential by seven or eight games again this year. If they could somehow hold onto their 96-run gap or at least approximate it, they could still win the division by outperforming it by two or three games--provided the other teams don’t show up with a vengeance or outperform a modest positive differential by too much.

What White Sox fans must acknowledge is that it’s asking a lot to catch lightning in a bottle twice in a row. Either the White Sox have to genuinely improve their play or it’s going to take the cooperation of both the Indians and Twins and, perhaps, the Tigers, to keep them from slipping.

Based on precedent, it’s not looking good, but then, we were wrong before.


Jim Baker is an author of Baseball Prospectus. You can contact Jim by clicking here or click here to see Jim's other articles.

[Sava]

no starting pitching past Oswalt...

from what I'm hearing, they have given up on Lidge

things are in disarray for them

Cardinals and Brewers will be 1st and 2nd in the division... the Astros will be battling the Cubs for 3rd...

a wild card is a pipe dream for the 'stros

[Arrian]

I don't know if it's realistic to expect the Astros to go to the playoffs this year...

Will Clemens pitch for them? If yes, will he be as good as he was the last two years? Will the rest of the staff keep it up? They better. Is there reason to believe the Astros are going to score more runs in '06?

-Arrian

[Arrian]

Woah, Sava... no pitching past Oswalt? Andy Pettite is chopped liver, I guess? He was really, really, really good last year. AFAIK he's healthy.

Lidge... closers fail sometimes. Rivera has failed... spectacularly even. He's still getting it done. I'm not saying Lidge = Rivera, mind you, but what's the basis for thinking Lidge is washed up?

-Arrian

[Sava]

Originally posted by Arrian
On the White Sox:

that's fine

repeating is always tough

but let me ask you

who is better than the White Sox?

nobody in the division did anything to improve their team as much as the Sox... the Indians didn't do ****... they got rid of Crisp who was a Sox killer... THANKS FOR THAT

and the Red Sox have no pitching... maybe Beckett.. that's it... Schilling? PLEASE... he's toast...

the Yankees? have fun with Damon... I'm sure Jeter is going to love running halfway into centerfield getting those cutoff throws

or maybe he's just going to say **** IT and tell Cano to get them

the Angels? the Sox beat them last year and they'll beat them again this year

so yeah, repeating is tough... and the whole "stathead" argument is always an interesting angle, but this Jim Baker douche doesn't say who is going to beat the White Sox... funny...

[Apocalypse]

Oswalt, Pettite, probably Clemens. Bagwell will also likely go and free up a ****ton of salary so it'd be quite easy pick up a great trade along the way. Lidge would only go in a trade for someone good....it's up in the air. They haven't really given up on him. He is young mind you.

[Sava]

Originally posted by Arrian
Woah, Sava... no pitching past Oswalt? Andy Pettite is chopped liver, I guess? He was really, really, really good last year. AFAIK he's healthy.

Pettite is not healthy...

Astros broadcaster Milo Hamilton was recently on Chicago sports radio... he says Pettite is not healthy and probably going to be nursing nagging injuries this year.

So yeah, no pitching past Oswalt.

[Arrian]

but this Jim Baker douche doesn't say who is going to beat the White Sox... funny...

Basically, he says the Indians. They look to be pretty darned solid going into next year. The Twins & Tigers would be the other challengers (in the Central), but I don't consider either to be serious contenders. In the playoffs... dude, anything can happen. It helps to have the pitching, though, so if the WS pitching holds, they will have a good shot (provided they make it to the playoffs).

Pettite is not healthy...

Astros broadcaster Milo Hamilton was recently on Chicago sports radio... he says Pettite is not healthy and probably going to be nursing nagging injuries this year.

Really? If true, that is indeed bad, bad news for the Astros.

What about this stuff you heard about Lidge. Source on that? Same guy?

-Arrian

[Ming]

Originally posted by Arrian
We'll see if Jose Contreras remains the '05 edition... or if he reverts to his prior form.

Valid comment... who knows what we will get out of him this year

We'll see about some of those other pitchers, too (is Garland really that good, or did he put up a fluke year?).

We've been waiting for Garland to have a breakout year, and last year, he finally lived up to his "potential".
It is more likely he will continue to pitch well than Contreras

We also picked up some additional pitching help that will protect us in case of a starter injury, or will help in the bullpen... the pitching looks bright for next year.

We'll see if they miss Rowand's defense in CF.

Probably... but add Thome to the line up, and it will more than make up for any lost defense. When Frank Thomas was in the line up last year, the White Sox were unbeatable. Unfortunately, he was injured most of the year. Thome will bring that same help to the offense on a more regular basis. It's likely that they will score far more runs next year, making the stats shown by Arrian meaningless. Last year, they went through some key injuries... Podsednik being the worst. His speed was lost to the team for the second half of the year. I don't believe the "they played above their heads" crap. I think we have yet to see their best ball.

There are so many things that can go wrong. They're a strong team, and (given the division), I'd be optimistic if I were a WS fan... but not to the point of assuming a repeat.

Hell... every team faces disaster... but yeah, we are optimistic that they will have a good year. And no, no one is betting on a repeat. But at least their is strong hope, which is all anybody can ask for.

In any event, if Sox fans hated statheads before, wait until the predictions for 2006 start coming out and they find their team pegged for second, third, and--for those keen on a Tiger awakening--even fourth.

I would be willing to bet that they will finish higher than third in the division

[Arrian]

So would I. I think they win it or place 2nd... both are quite possible.

Thome will bring that same help to the offense on a more regular basis. It's likely that they will score far more runs next year, making the stats shown by Arrian meaningless. Last year, they went through some key injuries... Podsednik being the worst. His speed was lost to the team for the second half of the year. I don't believe the "they played above their heads" crap. I think we have yet to see their best ball.

Pods was hugely overrated last year. By the way, speaking of him... is he gonna play CF this year? You assume Thome will be healthy... why, exactly? IIRC, many of the WS players had career years, too, so there may be some natural regression to the mean. By bolstering the pitching, do you mean Javier Vasquez? Javy in a home-run ballpark... yikes. Not a huge problem, given that he's replacing El Duque (he of the 5ish ERA and many injuries) as 5th starter, but don't think you're getting a good pitcher.

As for Garland, he may indeed have simply turned the corner. There are reasons to think that he did. We shall see.

-Arrian

[Imran Siddiqui]

I think the Indians break through this year. The have an amazingly talented and young team. The Yankees are old and the Sox have questions, but I think the Sox end up taking it and the AL West will go to the Angels, but I think the Rangers, A's, and White Sox will be in the Wild Card hunt until the end of the year.

I think this is the year that the Mets come together and grab that playoff spot. In the West, I think a Bonds bolstered Giants will roll and the Central is going to be the interesting one.

[Lawrence of Arabia]

Sava, Ming, I thought you guys were Cubs fans. Real fans don't switch sides.