Record Profits For Exxon 10.7 B

[Flubber]

Originally posted by Kidicious


As an shareholder all he cares about is the short term. That's why the system is so ****ed up.

Nope generally I want long term growth so GENERALLY I stick with a stock I believe in for years and years. But when prices get crazy high, I start to look at locking in my gains and investing in soemthing else.

I had planned on investing in energy for the long term but these short term gains have brought stocks probably too far so I'm fearing the correction that may come

[Kidlicious]

Originally posted by Flubber
Nope but there were other places to invest rather than oil exploration .. . Oh and when a SINGLE offshore exploration well costs 100 million, yes they do have to have big ones . . . How would you like to be the one explaining you spent that kind of coin and found NOTHING !!!

Oh Please. They have plenty of money already. No one is impressed except for your type who has to pat yourself on the back for that sort of thing. The rest of us do other trully extraordinary things.

But its not necessary to consume nearly as much as we do.

So. I was refering to the amount that we do have to consume. I thought that would have been obvious.

You need to ask why we use oil . . its because relatively speaking it was cheaper than the alternative. These prices will cause some short-term crimps in demand and will also cause some structural changes in energy as some higher-cost alternatives become viable

We'll still have to buy oil. We'll probably pay even more, and you will make more from it. We will lose.

[Kidlicious]

Originally posted by Flubber
Nope generally I want long term growth so GENERALLY I stick with a stock I believe in for years and years. But when prices get crazy high, I start to look at locking in my gains and investing in soemthing else.

I had planned on investing in energy for the long term but these short term gains have brought stocks probably too far so I'm fearing the correction that may come

I think you should keep it. I don't think many people think like you. There won't be a correction.

[Flubber]

Originally posted by Kidicious


So invest in alternatives also. Alternatives aren't going to make the price of oil fall. They're only going to take up some of the slack.

Not a bad plan-- perhaps a nice utility or two . . .

But I disagree . . .in the long run it is exactly the case that available alternatives/changes in consumption patterns WILL cause the price of oil to fall. The only way this will not happen is if demand for oil continues unabated

[Kidlicious]

Originally posted by Flubber
Obviously-- but the relationship is not fixed. As demand lessens as people make some of the longer term structural changes and as more alternatives become more radily available, price drops a bit. We have all seen demand curves after all

This doesn't make sense. The only thing that would make prices drop is if alternative became cheaper than they are now. There's no reason to think that they will. The price of oil won't fall unless demand for it and alternative fall.

[Dinner]

Originally posted by Flubber

One point--
The big companies don't "have any say" on who plays in the oilsands. Its an open bid process for new leases and the reason the little companies generally can't play is that they don't have the money to bid high enough. So there is a market barrier . . Its the same reason the little comapnies don't play in the offshore.

Even if they manage to get a lease they then need joint-venturers ( I don't think a junior wants to try to raise billions on the stock/debt markets)--See Synenco and their Chinese partners as an example.

Costs are very prohibative but some small players do get on board late in the game. Companies like Venoco in California or Enterprise Oil in Scotland pick up the older platforms with declining production since the big players don't want to own these facilities when they're late into their production life. The small guys generally make their money figuring out how to squeeze every last drop out of the wells which the big guys figure are to small to matter to them. It's a small but growing field since lots of fields are now in their middle to old age and it is profitable since they get to keep the big companies on the hook for the eventual clean up costs.

[Flubber]

Originally posted by Kidicious


I think you should keep it. I don't think many people think like you. There won't be a correction.

And not many people thought the dotcom rush would burst either-- thats the nature of a bubble-- you get a herd mentality where stock prices get pushed up-- People rush to invest in things that have gained already so that their rush pushes up the stock price regardless of fundamentals. But eventually fundamentals reassert themselves


Part of the reason why I think natural gas is the place to be is because its price is lower this winter than expected.

[Flubber]

Originally posted by Kidicious


This doesn't make sense. The only thing that would make prices drop is if alternative became cheaper than they are now. There's no reason to think that they will. The price of oil won't fall unless demand for it and alternative fall.

Actually it does make sense. Assume there are energy sources whuch are viable at $45 a barrell. No one would invest in those when oil was at 30 but now long term projections are getting where people might. Enough of such projects would bring oil to somewhere above 45 but far less than 70. Of course if prices stayed in the 60s we would call those folks profiteers too but if prices went into the 40s we wouldn't hear much at all while they took their lumps

[Flubber]

Originally posted by Oerdin


Costs are very prohibative but some small players do get on board late in the game. Companies like Venoco in California or Enterprise Oil in Scotland pick up the older platforms with declining production since the big players don't want to own these facilities when they're late into their production life. The small guys generally make their money figuring out how to squeeze every last drop out of the wells which the big guys figure are to small to matter to them. It's a small but growing field since lots of fields are now in their middle to old age and it is profitable since they get to keep the big companies on the hook for the eventual clean up costs.

Everything you say is true but so far inapplicable to the oilsands for two reasons.

1. The oilsands are in their infancy so the concept of the "late-play" isn't active yet

2. these aren't platforms, they are massive open pit mining operations that require immense amounts of capital to run. therefore the North Sea experience may or may not be repeated-- only time will tell

[Dis]

why do people elect republicans?

oh yeah, the democrats are dumbasses.

[Flubber]

Originally posted by Kidicious

Oh Please. They have plenty of money already. No one is impressed except for your type who has to pat yourself on the back for that sort of thing. The rest of us do other trully extraordinary things.

Who said anything about being extraordinary? I just think it takes balls to be the techie guy that decides where a $100 million well is located.

I didn't think there was any backpatting at all-- particularly since I was not involved . . .

[Flubber]

Originally posted by Kidicious




We'll still have to buy oil. We'll probably pay even more, and you will make more from it. We will lose.

and you have to buy food too-- what's your point?

As for "we will lose", the people of Alberta are doing quite well off these high oil prices-- $400 per person plus new investment in social programs, hospitals etc--- ohh ya and essentially full employment-- anyone with desire and the ability to hold a job can have one (or two) and pay rates have gone up a lot because of scarcity of skilled labour.

So as a resident of Alberta and Canada-- we win !!!!

[KrazyHorse]

Originally posted by Flubber


I did

Now its decision time about whether to get out. There are mixed messages about where oil will go . . . So I'm thinking I'll hold what I have but will put any new money in other sectors and regions.

I think I would sell if I were holding your position.

There's more downside than upside in my mind right now.

[KrazyHorse]

At a guess, oil will probably stabilise in the low to mid 50s over the next few years.

[Asher]

Originally posted by Flubber
and you have to buy food too-- what's your point?

As for we will lose, the people of Alberta are doing quite well off these high oil prices-- $400 per person plus new investment in social programs, hospitals etc--- ohh ya and essentially full employment-- anyone with desire and the ability to hold a job can have one (or two) and pay rates have gone up a lot because of scarcity of skilled labour.

So as a resident of Alberta and Canada-- we win !!!!

On the news last night they were talking to one of the execs of Westfair Foods (Superstore, Loblaws, etc.). They're importing grocery store clerks and workers from out of province now because they can't find enough people to work here...

Some Denny's guy said they're doing the same thing. They spend a lot of time out on the east coast recruiting Denny's employees for Calgary...

I was at Hy's steakhouse downtown a few weeks ago, and our waiter was from Nova Scotia...and was recruited specifically for the job.