Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

Econ Experts...your input please.

Collapse
X
Collapse
 
  • Page of 2
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts
Previous 1 2 template Next
  • #16
    Originally posted by DanS
    In December, the American consumer spent like a champ, with upward revisions to the November number as well.
    You know that it isn't just about the american consumer spending (although that might be what we are best at)...

    We also need other world consumers to buy our goods...

    JM
    Jon Miller-
    I AM.CANADIAN
    GENERATION 35: The first time you see this, copy it into your sig on any forum and add 1 to the generation. Social experiment.

    Comment

    • #17
      Originally posted by Jon Miller


      You know that it isn't just about the american consumer spending (although that might be what we are best at)...

      We also need other world consumers to buy our goods...

      JM
      As soon as they start we'll all start enjoying the economic growth.
      I drank beer. I like beer. I still like beer. ... Do you like beer Senator?
      - Justice Brett Kavanaugh

      Comment

      • #18
        In the architecture world, billings are still rising for residential projects. Seems like that even if the market cools a bit construction is still going to be profitable.

        Looking at it another way, particularly in California, if housing prices come down, people may have more money to spend on other things.
        Visit First Cultural Industries
        There are reasons why I believe mankind should live in cities and let nature reclaim all the villages with the exception of a few we keep on display as horrific reminders of rural life.-Starchild
        Meat eating and the dominance and force projected over animals that is acompanies it is a gateway or parallel to other prejudiced beliefs such as classism, misogyny, and even racism. -General Ludd

        Comment

        • #19
          From the WSJ, further supporting my perception that the headline GDP growth number seems low...

          Consumer Confidence Rises
          Amid Optimism on Hiring
          A WALL STREET JOURNAL ONLINE NEWS ROUNDUP
          January 31, 2006 10:21 a.m.

          U.S. consumer confidence levels surged to the best level in more than three years in January, driven up in large part by optimism over the state of hiring, a report said Tuesday.

          The Conference Board, a private research group, reported that its index of overall consumer confidence jumped to a reading of 106.3, from the revised 103.8 seen in December. January's reading bested economists" prediction of a rise to 105.0, and left the index at its best reading since the 106.3 of June 2002. The index was equal to 100 in 1985.

          "This month's increase was driven solely by consumers" assessment of current economic conditions, especially their more positive view of the job market," said Lynn Franco, who directs the survey.
          wsj.com
          http://online.wsj.com/article/SB113871235114360948.html?mod=home_whats_news_us
          I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891

          Comment

          • #20
            Originally posted by Jon Miller


            You know that it isn't just about the american consumer spending (although that might be what we are best at)...

            We also need other world consumers to buy our goods...

            JM
            For the US, that's maybe 10% of the picture. It shouldn't be overemphasized.
            I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891

            Comment

            • #21
              Hey, how many jobs were created in January?
              Visit First Cultural Industries
              There are reasons why I believe mankind should live in cities and let nature reclaim all the villages with the exception of a few we keep on display as horrific reminders of rural life.-Starchild
              Meat eating and the dominance and force projected over animals that is acompanies it is a gateway or parallel to other prejudiced beliefs such as classism, misogyny, and even racism. -General Ludd

              Comment

              • #22
                We'll know on Friday.
                I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891

                Comment

                • #23
                  Originally posted by DanS
                  From the WSJ, further supporting my perception that the headline GDP growth number seems low...



                  http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1138..._whats_news_us
                  Consumer confidence is not a lagging indicator. This tells us what consumer expenditures in the first quarter of this year will probably be like, not what they were in Q4 of last year.
                  DISCLAIMER: the author of the above written texts does not warrant or assume any legal liability or responsibility for any offence and insult; disrespect, arrogance and related forms of demeaning behaviour; discrimination based on race, gender, age, income class, body mass, living area, political voting-record, football fan-ship and musical preference; insensitivity towards material, emotional or spiritual distress; and attempted emotional or financial black-mailing, skirt-chasing or death-threats perceived by the reader of the said written texts.

                  Comment

                  • #24
                    Originally posted by Smiley
                    Looking at it another way, particularly in California, if housing prices come down, people may have more money to spend on other things.
                    Sales of existing homes doesn't add to income. It's just a transfer of income. Rent is the same.
                    I drank beer. I like beer. I still like beer. ... Do you like beer Senator?
                    - Justice Brett Kavanaugh

                    Comment

                    • #25
                      Originally posted by Colonâ„¢


                      Consumer confidence is not a lagging indicator. This tells us what consumer expenditures in the first quarter of this year will probably be like, not what they were in Q4 of last year.
                      I didn't say that it was a lagging indicator (i.e., something that would allow me to suggest that the GDP figure will be revised up substantially). Rather, consumer confidence at such a high level now doesn't seem consistent with an economy that had little to no growth in Q4.

                      In other words, if times are so good now, we can't really have been doing so poorly then.
                      I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891

                      Comment

                      • #26
                        Originally posted by Kidicious


                        Sales of existing homes doesn't add to income. It's just a transfer of income. Rent is the same.
                        This ought to be the case, but thanks to Prop 13, it's not.

                        Property taxes are based entirely on the purchase price of a house. They don't go up until it's sold. A market where fewer houses are being sold is one where fewer taxes are being paid.
                        Visit First Cultural Industries
                        There are reasons why I believe mankind should live in cities and let nature reclaim all the villages with the exception of a few we keep on display as horrific reminders of rural life.-Starchild
                        Meat eating and the dominance and force projected over animals that is acompanies it is a gateway or parallel to other prejudiced beliefs such as classism, misogyny, and even racism. -General Ludd

                        Comment

                        • #27
                          Originally posted by DanS


                          I didn't say that it was a lagging indicator (i.e., something that would allow me to suggest that the GDP figure will be revised up substantially). Rather, consumer confidence at such a high level now doesn't seem consistent with an economy that had little to no growth in Q4.

                          In other words, if times are so good now, we can't really have been doing so poorly then.
                          A high level in January. January is not in Q4, and confidence levels do bounce up and down every once in a while.

                          DISCLAIMER: the author of the above written texts does not warrant or assume any legal liability or responsibility for any offence and insult; disrespect, arrogance and related forms of demeaning behaviour; discrimination based on race, gender, age, income class, body mass, living area, political voting-record, football fan-ship and musical preference; insensitivity towards material, emotional or spiritual distress; and attempted emotional or financial black-mailing, skirt-chasing or death-threats perceived by the reader of the said written texts.

                          Comment

                          • #28
                            Originally posted by Smiley


                            This ought to be the case, but thanks to Prop 13, it's not.

                            Property taxes are based entirely on the purchase price of a house. They don't go up until it's sold. A market where fewer houses are being sold is one where fewer taxes are being paid.
                            True. I forgot about that.
                            I drank beer. I like beer. I still like beer. ... Do you like beer Senator?
                            - Justice Brett Kavanaugh

                            Comment

                            Previous 1 2 template Next
                            Working...
                            X