Is there hope for democracy in the Middle East?

[PLATO]

Originally posted by GePap
The problem in Iran was the status of clerics in Shia Islam, where clerics earn a large amount of legitimacy with experience.

Is not the problem with Iran's style of "democracy" that all candidates have to be approved by the ruling clergy? If they have this power, then how can they be called anything other than a Theocracy?

...and, If they are a Theocracy, then how can they be more "democratic" than Egypt? (which, admittedly has only the slightest shimmerings of democracy itself)

[lord of the mark]

theres illiberal democracy, and then theres illiberal democracy.

1. There are states where elections determine who governs, but where the press is unfree, and public debate is limited
2. There are states with a free press, but where the winners establish a religious regime, that doesnt meet western standards of individual freedom on a range of personal matters.

IMHO, category 1 is not just an illiberal democracy, isnt meaningfully a full democracy. Category 2 may be a path to democracy different from the wests - the future is not all that clear.

BOTH Egypt and Iran fail to have a free press, IIUC - and Iran is less far along on this than Egypt is, IIUC.

I would suggest that concentrating on the cases of Iran and and Egypt, important as they are, leads to a more pessimistic view than looking at some smaller states, as Colon pointed out. I think there is hope for Lebanon - whereas at one time all the different sectarian groups were at each others throats, now the Maronites, Sunnis and Druze seem to share a vision of an independent and democratic Lebanon. The principle obstacle to further progress there is reconciliation between the new Lebanese forces on the one hand, and the Shiites on the other. The issues of electoral reform, the disarming of the Hezbollah group, and ties to Syria and Iran stand between them, but may be solvable.

[lord of the mark]

Originally posted by Arrian
Which they aren't interested in. Instead, they want to go back.

-Arrian

AFAIK there ARE salafist clerics in Saudi Arabia and elsewhere who support the OBL program of a return to the past, but IIUC this is far from universal.

[lord of the mark]

Originally posted by Odin
The problem is that democracy in the ME will often mean Islamists coming to power, which will scare the west, leading to secular dictators being installed, making the people hate the west even more and to look to the islamists and extremists even more...

If we can swallow the election of Islamists in Iraq, were we have 150,000 troops, I would suggest we can swallow the election of Islamists in Egypt.

[Vince278]

It would seem that democracy has a snowball's chance in Mecca of taking hold in the Middle East. Many see democracy as a western invention (which it is) and resent the west's attempts to force its values upon others.

[Pekka]

I see the appearance of democracy, partially, but not real democracy. Real democracy depends on the activity of its members, the citizens, NGOs and all kinds of segments. It means that it has to be understood by the majority, and supported by it. If we don't have that, the next best thing is to have the democratic processes, that in itself could be described by a democracy. However it's not functioning one unless it's understood and practiced outside few things like elections.

It's like this, look at Turkmenistan. They have the democratic party there, they have a president. Only it's president for life and the party used to be called the communist party, 3rd worst in the world with the freedom of press, no opposition allowed, the only thing that changed is the name.

Now, I'm not claiming we treat it as democracy, because we all know it isn't. We also know that it's not appearing as one either, even with the change of names, but I don't see how the ME in general is more democratic, when it counts.

And I don't see it going there unless the majority of people alter their opinions and views, which I don't see coming in general to the extent that we can say, well, they have a functioning democracy there.

So what does it matter if they do have democracy but it's just not as great as we do. Well, it's like saying that they have a car, but it's busted and won't start. Sure they have that car but they might as well not have it, there's no use to it.

Will the area move towards democracy, or some parts of it? Likely yes, the question is does it happen in the next 20, 50, 100 or 500 years.

[Sikander]

Re: Is there hope for democracy in the Middle East?

Originally posted by techumseh
I'd settle for Florida.

Alrighty, it's all yours then.

[Heresson]

Is there hope for democracy in the Middle East?

Yes. Syrýa

[VetLegion]

Heresson we know you're being watched when you type so we don't take it seriously anyway

[GePap]

Originally posted by lord of the mark
I would suggest that concentrating on the cases of Iran and and Egypt, important as they are, leads to a more pessimistic view than looking at some smaller states, as Colon pointed out. I think there is hope for Lebanon - whereas at one time all the different sectarian groups were at each others throats, now the Maronites, Sunnis and Druze seem to share a vision of an independent and democratic Lebanon. The principle obstacle to further progress there is reconciliation between the new Lebanese forces on the one hand, and the Shiites on the other. The issues of electoral reform, the disarming of the Hezbollah group, and ties to Syria and Iran stand between them, but may be solvable.

A basic tenant of Liberal democracy is one person, one vote, all equal. You can;t even have a freaking census in Lebanon without threatening the collapse of the country into civil war.

All the groups get along because they have a pact to defend their own interests- yes, the Maronites, Druze and sunnis get along, cause all of them want to keep the Shiites down- not **** Hizbullah remains so strong. Lebanon is no role model-the same forces that lead to the country splintering into civil war 30 years ago remain- they main remain quite, and over a long time become immaterial, but they remain.

I would say Iran is further along than Egypt because Iran has had elections that matter- legislative elections that are competative, and the legislative is the basis of democracy, eventually. Iranians have more practice with the reality of democracy than the Egyptians. At least in Iran they are "working" through the relation of Islam to the democratic state. IN Egypt they simply try to crush it, which is why the Muslim Brotherhood, even when banned, remains the single strongest opposition party.

[Vince278]

Re: Is there hope for democracy in the Middle East?

Originally posted by Heresson
Yes. Syrýa

[Geronimo]

Re: Re: Is there hope for democracy in the Middle East?

Originally posted by Vince278

hrmm when someone writing away from home writes back weird patently absurd nonsense isn't that supposed to be a possible coded appeal for help?

[Sava]

Is there hope for democracy in the Middle East?

[Lung]

Originally posted by Vince278
It would seem that democracy has a snowball's chance in Mecca of taking hold in the Middle East. Many see democracy as a western invention (which it is) and resent the west's attempts to force its values upon others.

Who wants to claim totalitarianism as an invention of their own? Democracy was invented just across the water from the middle east, so why do they think it's so foreign? Perhaps it's more popular among the powerless in the ME than we give credit.

[Bill3000]

You know, why does everyone think that everyone in the world wants Democracy? I don't understand that, and in my opinion, it's better for the people of the nations to decide whatever government they want. Who says that said government has to be a Liberal Democracy?