The leaders of IRAN: are they as crazy as it seems nowadays?

[Dinner]

Originally posted by GePap
Brazil, SA, and Argentina all began nuclear programs (SA went all the way) under revisionist regimes.

Brazil started a nuclear program in the 1960's and Argentina started one because they didn't want their great rival having a nuke without getting one themselves while South Africa wanted to prove that they were the greatest power in Africa. F.W. DeClerk gave up South Africa's nuclear weapons just before it was clear white minority rule was going to fall apart. DeClerk was reportedly terrified that blacks might have control of nuclear weapons and so he agreed to terminate the nuclear program and transfer South Africa's nukes to the Us (where they were dismantled) in exchange for greater development aid. In the early 1990's both Brazil and Argentina agreed to terminate their nuclear programs (neather had actually built a bomb but both had a great deal of nuclear material) amd the nuclear material was once agian transfered to the US in exchange for greater development aid.

Libya agreed to dismantle its program in exchange for lifting sanctions though Syria, Iran, amd Mprth Korea all have nuclear programs dispite years of saying other wise. India, Pakistan, and Isreal all had nukes since the 1970's though India & Pakistan didn't fess up to it until the late 1990's and Israel still refuses to comment on their nuclear program.

[Winston]

I heard the regime in Teheran is preparing to set up a so-called scientific conference to prove that the Holocaust never took place, that it was all a fabrication done by a conspiracy of Christians and 'Zionists'. They're trying to get the likes of David Irving, who is currently under arrest in Austria on charges of Holocaust revisionism, to appear.

[Vince278]

If the world appears powerless to stop the nuclear ambitions of Iran and North Korea then an entire Pandora's Box of crap is about to break loose.

[lord of the mark]

UK, France, Germany, and Solana are meeting to discuss actions. Looks like they will be calling for an emergency meeting fo the IAEA to call for referrall to the UNSC. The EU3 meet will be followed by a meet of the EU3 plus the US, Russia, and China (which is the P5 plus Germany, from another POV). That will be to make sure Russia and China are on board, at least as far as referral.

Optimistically, one might hope that just UNSC referal, with all the implicit dangers to Iran, might lead Iran to reexamine its policy. Assuming that this does NOT happen, the next step will be a UNSC debate and a UNSC resolution. The US is talking sanctions (of unspeficied kind) - I doubt that will happen in the first resolution - the Russians and Chinese of course dont want it, and the EU powers want to give Iran more chances to back down.

I would expect the first res. will be along the lines of "we're the UNSC, and we think it would be a very good idea to stop enrichment. And we resolve to remain seized of the matter(IE we wont need another referal from the IAEA)"

If THAT doesnt generate suitable follow up in IRan, the next resolution will THREATEN sanctions. If THAT doesnt work, the debate on sanctions will begin. Sanctions could well start with sanctions on nuclear related materials - that would only materially affect Russia, but its possible the Russians are pissed enough at the Iranians (and eager to avoid harsher sanctions on Iran) that they might go along. There are other possible sanctions that could be imposed - I DONT expect an all encompassing sanctions regime such as was imposed on Iraq.

[Colon™]

You think it's a coincidence this happens when Israel is essentially leaderless?

[lord of the mark]

Originally posted by Colon
You think it's a coincidence this happens when Israel is essentially leaderless?

Im not of the "Iran is about to move beyond the point of no return and Israel is about to attack" school of thought. I cant really speak to why they did this just now. I dont for sure that everything the Iranians do is rational. Assuming it is, I think it may have more to with the crash of a plane carrying the commander of revolutionary guards ground forces and several lesser commanders. Internal ferment, and the need for a confrontation ( a confrontation they think they can win) with the nasty western boogeymen.

I would note that the EU3 apparently HAVE called for the IAEA referall, saying negotiations are now over. In addition to the meeting with Russia and China, one source reports a US Dept of State official will be going to India next week to discuss this matter.

[Colon™]

Maybe you aren't of that school, but it's about their line of thought. I suspect they're more paranoid about it.

[lord of the mark]

Originally posted by Colon
Maybe you aren't of that school, but it's about their line of thought. I suspect they're more paranoid about it.

So they think that IF Israel had a govt in position to do such a thing then Israel WOULD attack on the restart of enrichment, but WOULDNT attack a few weeks after enrichement had begun? I guess I dont understand that, unless they think they will have a bomb before the Israeli election - and are willing to risk Olmert attacking before the election.

[Edan]

Originally posted by GePap
the US is stuck in Iraq

Is our air force stuck in Iraq? I don't know of very many people suggesting we consider use of our ground troops in Iran.

There's also a question of when any action might need to be taken - it may be some time from now, at which point the situation may have changed.

[Barnabas]

I read an article which says the president of Iran belongs to a very wacky sect of Islam, according to which some islamic prophet from the past (not mohammed by the way) will return to earth during a time of great chaos to put order and islamic state all over the world.

And so, by creating chaos, the president of iran thinks he is helping this prophet to return, that he will return sooner.

Similar to the neo cons who believe they may trigger the return of christ.

maybe some of the jewish posters have heard of this?

[Drake Tungsten]

Military action is not a serious consideration in the Iran situation.

Members of the Fort Wayne-based 122nd Fighter Wing are scheduled to leave for Southwest Asia about 2:30 a.m. Tuesday from the unit’s headquarters on Ferguson Road. It represents the wing’s largest single deployment since it was called to Chambley, France, in 1961 during the Berlin Crisis. This deployment is in support of ongoing operations in the U.S. Central Command Air Forces (CENTAF) area of responsibility, which includes Southwest Asia. The unit will deploy fighter pilots, as well as maintenance and support personnel.

http://www.fortwayne.com/mld/newssentinel/news/local/13586753.htm

Insightful as always, GePap...

[Colon™]

Originally posted by lord of the mark So they think that IF Israel had a govt in position to do such a thing then Israel WOULD attack on the restart of enrichment, but WOULDNT attack a few weeks after enrichement had begun? I guess I dont understand that, unless they think they will have a bomb before the Israeli election - and are willing to risk Olmert attacking before the election.

After a few weeks the momuntem will have diminished. The risk of backlash is always highest during the initial phases, so if you're going to take a risk, it's best to do it when your enemy is distracted.

[GePap]

Originally posted by Drake Tungsten

Military action is not a serious consideration in the Iran situation.

Members of the Fort Wayne-based 122nd Fighter Wing are scheduled to leave for Southwest Asia about 2:30 a.m. Tuesday from the unit’s headquarters on Ferguson Road. It represents the wing’s largest single deployment since it was called to Chambley, France, in 1961 during the Berlin Crisis. This deployment is in support of ongoing operations in the U.S. Central Command Air Forces (CENTAF) area of responsibility, which includes Southwest Asia. The unit will deploy fighter pilots, as well as maintenance and support personnel.

http://www.fortwayne.com/mld/newssentinel/news/local/13586753.htm

Insightful as always, GePap...

Thank you. And your comments are as vacuous and useless as ever

Now go away boy and leave the debate to serious individuals.

[trev]

The Leaders of Iran are not crazy, but need to distract its people from the failures of the Islamic revolution. Confrontation with the West achieves that. Also, they can play to the anti Israeli sentiment of all Islamic countries.
But it is very risky as Israel will not tolerate a significant threat to its existence and will attack first, leaderless or not if it believed that it would increase its long term security with an assault on Irans nuclear program. After all Israel's acting leaders can only gain credibility with their voters if such an attack was successful, and therefore there is strong incentive for Israel to attack Iran at this time.

[Drake Tungsten]

Now go away boy and leave the debate to serious individuals.

You clearly won't be involved in that debate either. Want to hang out? Catch a movie or something? You seem like an interesting fellow, in a non-obvious kind of way...