CanPol: Race to the Finish

[Ninot]

Watching the debate:

I wonder how Canadians are interpretting Martin and Harper. I think if Harper were a better debater, he could have burried Martin 5 times over (i've only been watching 10 minutes).

[Odin]

The Tories are in the lead? I thought Canada was too civilized to elect right-wing scum.

[notyoueither]

Originally posted by Odin
The Tories are in the lead? I thought Canada was too civilized to elect right-wing scum.

Nope. Your cast is way off. You'd best get some practice.

Eventually Canada will elect a government that is right wing to us, but still to the left of your Democrats.

[KrazyHorse]

Don't even try to compare, Funboy. But Harper does have a history...

[notyoueither]

Originally posted by Ninot
Watching the debate:

I wonder how Canadians are interpretting Martin and Harper. I think if Harper were a better debater, he could have burried Martin 5 times over (i've only been watching 10 minutes).

Harper is far too... avoiding being angry. He isn't allowed to swing for a home run. He will never deliver 'you had a choice, sir!' under current circumstances. That makes for a very boring watch.

And then his smile after finishing struck me as out of place at times, like when finishing up on law and order, 4 dead mounties, a dead city cop, and a dead teenager... Arggh. Not appropriate, Steven. That's where he should have shown some fire.

Duceppe didn't do as well this time as in last election debates. He wasn't being left alone, and he didn't seem as statesmanlike.

Layton did the best. He appeared to keep the high road even when he was slinging mud. Quite and accomplishment.

Martin struck me as just pure mean. I don't think he saw a foe he didn't want to attack. The fists clentched up to chest when speaking of values and Quebec struck a poor chord in me, for some odd reason.

Then there's his hail Mary constitutional issue. The last gasp. He is counting on someone catching it, but will the electorate care enough to go the the endzone for the Liberals one more time? Have to give it to him though, it is quite the gamble. These Liberals do know how to campaign.

[KrazyHorse]

Originally posted by notyoueither
Then there's his hail Mary constitutional issue. The last gasp. He is counting on someone catching it, but will the electorate care enough to go the the endzone for the Liberals one more time? Have to give it to him though, it is quite the gamble. These Liberals do know how to campaign.

It's the first campaign promise he's made that I've been firmly in support of.

[notyoueither]

Will it swing your vote?

[KrazyHorse]

No.

But I appreciate the fact that somebody brought it up.

[notyoueither]

Would you be in favour of emasculating Parliament when the SCoC sets it's sights on the Canada Health Act because it violates Charter rights?

Layton wasn't.

[KrazyHorse]

Which part of the CHA?

[notyoueither]

The part that prevents private health insurance being held, and used, by Canadians.

Edit: I shoud say, inhibits.

[notyoueither]

The recent SCoC ruling said that the people of Quebec have a right to private health insurance, due to Quebec Human Rights law. They declined to make the same ruling for all Canadians based on the CoRFs due to it not being as liberal, yet.

[KrazyHorse]

If the SCoC finds that it violates the Charter then I think that Parliament needs to sit back and take its lumps.

[Flinx]

Originally posted by joncha
Maybe Flinx could plug in the polling numbers from the last election and show us what seats his model would have predicted then...

Originally posted by RedFred
While I appreciate Flinx's periodic seat predictions, I'm not sure I can agree with them, particularly in Quebec. There were some razor thin Liberal victories last time around. Shouldn't surging Conservative and dropping Liberal support (to the point where they are about even) be more favorable to the Bloc?

My model gives the 2004 election seat result when the 2004 election vote % result is plugged into it.

My model adjusts individual riding results based on the differences between regional poll % and the 2004 actual regional %. If the Conservative Party is polling above it's 2004 result in a given region, it will be up in every riding, but the amount it is up in each riding depends on now much the 2004 % Conservative vote in that riding was above or below the 2004 % Conservative vote for that region i.e. if there is a 5% swing for the Conservative Party in a region, the swing will be more than 5% in ridings where the Conservative Party did better than average last time and less than 5% where it did poorly.

In 2004 the Conservative Party finished in second place in some Quebec ridings. When you reduce the Bloc vote and increase the Conservative Party vote it is possible to flip these ridings. Do not forget that many polls are suggesting the conservative vote has more than doubled in Quebec. Even in ridings where the Conservative Party ran a respectable third, it is possible for it to come out on top when you double it’s vote and reduce the vote of both the Bloc and the Liberal Party.

[notyoueither]

Originally posted by KrazyHorse
If the SCoC finds that it violates the Charter then I think that Parliament needs to sit back and take its lumps.

I see that view. 9 appointed jurists should overrule 300+ elected representatives, for all time, to protect the rights of individuals. As a rule, that is a very good way to do things.

OTOH, I can see the wisdom of the Westminster system, where Parliament is best able to adapt and change to meet the changing needs of our society. From time to time, we might want Parliament to be supreme.