Tweet
Update to my previous threads.
Things are not as bad as was feared, thank God for modern DNA sequencing. This applies in the case that the H5N1 strain directly mutates into a strain that can infect humans. They have reconstructed the 1918 killer pandemic influenza vaccine and genetically sequenced it. They have also compared it to H5N1.
Source
However, upon further research I checked and it's not quite such a positive picture. source
Now in other pandemics you had the case of a human influenza virus picking up traits from an avian influenze virus. The efects are much less dangerous. source
They've also discovered why the 1918 Pandemic was such a killer.
source
In further development, they are spending a small amount of money to work on recombinant DNA models for vaccine production. A problem with an avian flu that jump species is that they kill bird eggs. Since that is how we currently culture human flu vaccine - I hope you see the problem. The good news is that they are spending the money, the bad news is that it is a small amount being spent as though there is no looming problem. Sort of like not upgrading those levees at New Orleans, the issue is not IF we will have a flu pandemic, but when, and if it is a human infuenza with avian influenza genes, or an avian influenza that jumps species aka 1918.
Also the US and Europe are now stockpiling anti-virals. The bad news is the the influenza virus can rapidly develop resistance, and that you have to start treatment immediately. This is a problem because it is not necessarily clear that you have the flu, versus a cold or some other illness, during that critical time.
Plus, the amounts involved in the USA would treat roughly 1% of the US population. That wouldn't even treat all the critical personel - physicians, nurses, polices, firemen, etc. Some European countries have a little bit more, but nobody has stockpiled enough to treat even half of their population.
With globalization proper reponse will give a government days, maybe weeks, to quarantine all travel from the affected countries. NOBODY appears to have a series of laws with the necessary triggers in effect that it would work. So even with the new work, there are no indications that vaccines, that currently take six months to develop/culture, will be available quickly enough. It's not quite at the level of the initial non-response to AIDS - yet.
Further reading - warning HIGHLY TECHNICAL
Things are not as bad as was feared, thank God for modern DNA sequencing. This applies in the case that the H5N1 strain directly mutates into a strain that can infect humans. They have reconstructed the 1918 killer pandemic influenza vaccine and genetically sequenced it. They have also compared it to H5N1.
Source
Experts worry the new Asian bird flu, known as H5N1, could become the next pandemic.
A bird virus can become a pandemic in one of two ways. It can infect a person or animal also infected with a human flu virus and swap genes with the human virus, creating a deadly and contagious disease. Or it can gradually change its genetic code over a long period of time, as happened with the 1918 virus.
In the reconstructed virus, researchers identified a series of key mutations in each of the virus' eight genes that made it both lethal and highly contagious among humans. Those mutations should provide a road map for scientists tracking H5N1, according to Treanor.
Scientists also created hybrid viruses that had some but not all of the mutations found in the 1918 virus. The hybrids were far less deadly than the pure 1918 virus in lab mice, suggesting that an avian flu has to undergo an extensive series of mutations before it can launch a deadly pandemic.
''There wouldn't be a single mutation that suddenly changes a virus from being inefficient to being a killer,'' Treanor said.
While some strains of H5N1 have shown a few of the mutations found in the 1918 flu, the mutations have been scattered among different samples -- one mutation in one sample, a different mutation in another, according to Taubenberger.
''They share the same changes as 1918, but where in each protein of 1918 there may be as many as four or five or six changes, the H5 viruses only ever show one change or so per protein,'' he said. ``So it suggests that . . . they're early on in this process.''
A bird virus can become a pandemic in one of two ways. It can infect a person or animal also infected with a human flu virus and swap genes with the human virus, creating a deadly and contagious disease. Or it can gradually change its genetic code over a long period of time, as happened with the 1918 virus.
In the reconstructed virus, researchers identified a series of key mutations in each of the virus' eight genes that made it both lethal and highly contagious among humans. Those mutations should provide a road map for scientists tracking H5N1, according to Treanor.
Scientists also created hybrid viruses that had some but not all of the mutations found in the 1918 virus. The hybrids were far less deadly than the pure 1918 virus in lab mice, suggesting that an avian flu has to undergo an extensive series of mutations before it can launch a deadly pandemic.
''There wouldn't be a single mutation that suddenly changes a virus from being inefficient to being a killer,'' Treanor said.
While some strains of H5N1 have shown a few of the mutations found in the 1918 flu, the mutations have been scattered among different samples -- one mutation in one sample, a different mutation in another, according to Taubenberger.
''They share the same changes as 1918, but where in each protein of 1918 there may be as many as four or five or six changes, the H5 viruses only ever show one change or so per protein,'' he said. ``So it suggests that . . . they're early on in this process.''
However, upon further research I checked and it's not quite such a positive picture. source
There are both frightening and promising implications in last week's announcement that research teams have deciphered the genetic sequence of the devastating 1918 influenza virus and have synthesized the lethal germ in a high-security laboratory. The feat is a scientific tour de force that should provide important insights on the best way to respond to the avian influenza strain now circulating in Asia, which has killed large numbers of birds and about 60 people in four countries.
The two most recent flu pandemics, in 1957 and 1968, were caused by human flu viruses that picked up some bird flu components. Now it turns out that the far more lethal 1918 virus, which killed perhaps 20 million to 100 million people, was most likely an avian strain that jumped directly into humans. The genetic changes that allowed it to do so are already beginning to appear in the current avian strain, known as H5N1. That gives today's avian strain two routes to wreak havoc among humans. It could either mix some of its genes with human influenza, like the 1957 and 1968 viruses, or it could mutate on its own to become easily transmissible among humans, like the 1918 virus.
So far, the avian virus has rarely jumped from birds to humans and seldom spread from one human to another. But it may be traveling down the same evolutionary path as the 1918 virus. Two U.S. health officials said that the H5N1 virus has acquired five of the 10 genetic sequence changes associated with human-to-human transmission of the 1918 virus.
The two most recent flu pandemics, in 1957 and 1968, were caused by human flu viruses that picked up some bird flu components. Now it turns out that the far more lethal 1918 virus, which killed perhaps 20 million to 100 million people, was most likely an avian strain that jumped directly into humans. The genetic changes that allowed it to do so are already beginning to appear in the current avian strain, known as H5N1. That gives today's avian strain two routes to wreak havoc among humans. It could either mix some of its genes with human influenza, like the 1957 and 1968 viruses, or it could mutate on its own to become easily transmissible among humans, like the 1918 virus.
So far, the avian virus has rarely jumped from birds to humans and seldom spread from one human to another. But it may be traveling down the same evolutionary path as the 1918 virus. Two U.S. health officials said that the H5N1 virus has acquired five of the 10 genetic sequence changes associated with human-to-human transmission of the 1918 virus.
Now in other pandemics you had the case of a human influenza virus picking up traits from an avian influenze virus. The efects are much less dangerous. source
• 1957-58, "Asian flu" was first identified in China in late February 1957; it spread to the United States by June and caused about 70,000 deaths
• 1968-69, "Hong Kong flu" was first detected in Hong Kong in early 1968 and spread to the United States later that year, causing approximately 34,000 deaths. This virus is still in circulation today.
• 1968-69, "Hong Kong flu" was first detected in Hong Kong in early 1968 and spread to the United States later that year, causing approximately 34,000 deaths. This virus is still in circulation today.
They've also discovered why the 1918 Pandemic was such a killer.
source
The researchers also refined their focus on one gene, the HA gene, that encodes the hemagglutinin surface protein that help the virus attach to cells and multiply. The 1918 virus is deadly with the HA gene, but when the gene was replaced, it was not virulent, Tumpey said.
The virus's genetic properties may explain why it was able to settle deeper in the lungs than most current flu strains, causing the drowning condition, he said.
The virus's genetic properties may explain why it was able to settle deeper in the lungs than most current flu strains, causing the drowning condition, he said.
In further development, they are spending a small amount of money to work on recombinant DNA models for vaccine production. A problem with an avian flu that jump species is that they kill bird eggs. Since that is how we currently culture human flu vaccine - I hope you see the problem. The good news is that they are spending the money, the bad news is that it is a small amount being spent as though there is no looming problem. Sort of like not upgrading those levees at New Orleans, the issue is not IF we will have a flu pandemic, but when, and if it is a human infuenza with avian influenza genes, or an avian influenza that jumps species aka 1918.
Also the US and Europe are now stockpiling anti-virals. The bad news is the the influenza virus can rapidly develop resistance, and that you have to start treatment immediately. This is a problem because it is not necessarily clear that you have the flu, versus a cold or some other illness, during that critical time.
Plus, the amounts involved in the USA would treat roughly 1% of the US population. That wouldn't even treat all the critical personel - physicians, nurses, polices, firemen, etc. Some European countries have a little bit more, but nobody has stockpiled enough to treat even half of their population.
With globalization proper reponse will give a government days, maybe weeks, to quarantine all travel from the affected countries. NOBODY appears to have a series of laws with the necessary triggers in effect that it would work. So even with the new work, there are no indications that vaccines, that currently take six months to develop/culture, will be available quickly enough. It's not quite at the level of the initial non-response to AIDS - yet.
Further reading - warning HIGHLY TECHNICAL
Comment