Announcement

**Tingkai** · October 13, 2005, 01:35

Originally posted by Asher
While Apple will only talk about how great of a quarter they had, shareholders had quite a different interpretation. It appears iPod sales have peaked, and indeed Apple missed some consensus estimates for sales by quite a bit.

No.

Creative Tech is crashing and burning while Apple is going up overall.

People bid the price too high because of unrealistic expectations, as the analyst said in the story you posted: “I think investors got a little too excited, the stock got too high, and the stock is just trying to correct itself now.”

So we're seeing a correction, but overall trend is up for Apple, has almost tripled. in the past year. Meanwhile, Creative has dropped from +$15 to $7.

**Asher** · October 13, 2005, 01:39

Yeah, because their profits take a hit while they position for more marketshare instead.

Apple's stock has nowhere to go but down. These are the same American investors that bought into the hype and trendyness of the internet, and now they're doing the same thing on a smaller scale with the iPod. They don't understand what they're actually investing in, they're investing in it because of the hype. When the hype runs out, people start panicing.

iPod sales are slowing. The next couple quarters (after this one, which is holiday season) will show hugely stunted growth in sales. Quote me on this. The honeymoon with Apple's stock is over, the real world is approaching.

**Tingkai** · October 13, 2005, 01:58

Look at the numbers, Asher.

Apple's profit's are up 300%, sales revenue is up 57%.

iPod sales increased 220% y-o-y. More are being sold, not less.

One million nanos sold in 17 days.

You could try investing in Creative and pray that the stock has hit rock bottom, but I'd say it's going down even more.

Apple is kicking Creative's but in the music player business. Creative has failed to produce a marketable music player.

**Asher** · October 13, 2005, 02:02

Originally posted by Tingkai
Look at the numbers, Asher.

Apple's profit's are up 300%, sales revenue is up 57%.

iPod sales increased 220% y-o-y.

That's all year over year -- why do you think Apple keeps beating their chest about that, while avoiding the quarter-over-quarter numbers?

iPod sales were up 5% since last quarter, and that coincides with the release of a new player.

That's why their stock dropped, and it'll continue doing so after the holidays are over and sales normalize. Investors like growth, not stagnation.

Apple has only been able to maintain their "# of iPods sold" over the past year by introducing dirt-cheap players like the iPod Shuffle.

They're running out of market segments to hit, and their current ones are saturated and the iPod counterculture backlash with all of the trendsetters is beginning.

The problem with marketing your device as a trendy product is all trends have an end.

**Snotty** · October 13, 2005, 02:43

If the market is going to end up being saturated, surely it is best to have saturated it with your player. Then your laughing all the way to the bank when people stop buying all players anyway

Also mobile phone sales are still barrelling along despite this being a market prone to saturation, they just evolve and keep shifting the new phones.

The colour mp3 player screen opens up a lot of possibilitys, even though I think it would be uncomfortably small to watch a whole film on, it would be great for watching last nights lost on the train in the morning for example

**Asher** · October 13, 2005, 02:49

Originally posted by Snotty
The colour mp3 player screen opens up a lot of possibilitys, even though I think it would be uncomfortably small to watch a whole film on, it would be great for watching last nights lost on the train in the morning for example

I did this for free back when I took the bus, with my iPaq:

I used an RSS reader to automatically download new torrents of my selected TV shows as they were available. When I woke up in the morning I batch-converted them to WMV at 320x240 for the iPaq (click of a button, really) and when it was done, it would place the .WMV file in my PocketPC Documents folder, which was then automatically synchronized with my iPaq.

Long story short, it was fairly autonomous (I guess the kids call it 'podcasting' these days), but I watched commercial free episodes of my favorite shows on a 3.5" 320x240 screen in a device that weighed 5oz.

That was two years ago.

**Agathon** · October 13, 2005, 02:51

Originally posted by Snotty
If the market is going to end up being saturated, surely it is best to have saturated it with your player. Then your laughing all the way to the bank when people stop buying all players anyway

Also mobile phone sales are still barrelling along despite this being a market prone to saturation, they just evolve and keep shifting the new phones.

The colour mp3 player screen opens up a lot of possibilitys, even though I think it would be uncomfortably small to watch a whole film on, it would be great for watching last nights lost on the train in the morning for example

But you aren't allowed an iPod because Glonkie says so.

**Snotty** · October 13, 2005, 02:59

While the pocket PC is right up my street, its still kinda 'geeky cool' whereas the ipod video is going to sell because its just 'cool'.

There have been pocket style pcs that act as mobile phones for quite some time, but it wasnt until mobile phones started acting as little pocket pcs that video and all the rest of it really took off. Maybe its a price thing? Maybe everyone needs a mobile, so they want one with all the bells and whistles.

Ive got my gfs ipod mini fully charged round here, its about a year old, suffered pretty average use, I wonder how long the battery will last with 'shuffle andleave it'battery test

**Dinner** · October 13, 2005, 03:27

Originally posted by Adrian Hon
Asher: "The iPod sucks, Creative is better"
28 million people: "I'll have one!"

Based purely upon technical merit the creativeis better, however, people rarely buy things based solely upon technical merit. Marketing, image, hype, and all sorts of other stuff gets in the way. How else can you explain why people pay $5000 for a designer suit when the exact same suit, minus brand label, could sell profitably at $800 (or maybe even less)? These people think they're buying more then a suit because the marketing people told them it makes them part of a life style group.

**Tingkai** · October 13, 2005, 04:16

Originally posted by Asher
That's all year over year -- why do you think Apple keeps beating their chest about that, while avoiding the quarter-over-quarter numbers?

iPod sales were up 5% since last quarter, and that coincides with the release of a new player.

That's why their stock dropped, and it'll continue doing so after the holidays are over and sales normalize. Investors like growth, not stagnation.

Bullocks, the quarterly numbers were released with the y-on-y numbers.

Apple sold 6.45 million iPods in the last quarter, despite being unable to meet demands.

Analysts are forecasting sales to hit 9 million in the next quarter as more production comes on line.

There is no sign of the market being saturated because Apple continues to produce new products that consumers want.

Apple is still a strong investment while Creative is tanking.

Meanwhile, the few people who bought Creative are desperately trying to justify their purchase by claiming geek status. Quite amusing.

**Agathon** · October 13, 2005, 05:44

Meanwhile, the few people who bought Creative are desperately trying to justify their purchase by claiming geek status. Quite amusing.

I think this is funny too.

With the latest generation of iPods, all the other players look like relics.

**our_man** · October 13, 2005, 07:15

At least with the Zen Microphoto you can have multiple batteries.

Speaking of this, when on Earth are they going to release this. I thought they claimed it was going to be out in early September! I've been holding off buying a Zen Micro/any mp3 player because I've wanted to wait until the next generation comes out, but I'm not sure how much longer I can hold off. The new iPod is looking tempting.

**Drake Tungsten** · October 13, 2005, 10:35

Maybe I'm just drunk, but I think this thread is hilarious. Pathetic, but hilarious...

**Asher** · October 13, 2005, 11:27

Originally posted by Tingkai
Bullocks, the quarterly numbers were released with the y-on-y numbers.

Apple sold 6.45 million iPods in the last quarter, despite being unable to meet demands.

Which I don't buy at all. Maybe Apple just didn't allocate their units properly, because in Canada at least there is definitely no shortage of them.

Even if this is true, the blame rests on Apple for discontinuing the iPod Mini and replacing it with a product that doesn't even match the old one in capacity, but has apparent supply problems. Mindbogglingly stupid.