How are you preparing for 'Peak Oil' / The coming oil crisis

[Lawrence of Arabia]

explain to me what is 'peak oil'

[Spiffor]

Originally posted by Lawrence of Arabia
explain to me what is 'peak oil'

From wikipedia:
The Hubbert peak theory, also known as peak oil, is an influential theory concerning the long-term rate of conventional oil (and other fossil fuel) extraction and depletion. It predicts that future world oil production will reach a peak and then rapidly decline. The actual peak year will only be known after it has passed

[Lawrence of Arabia]

tell me, how does future world oil production hit a 'peak' if prices are always rising - that would seem to show that more and more oil fields become profitable to drill.

[Impaler[WrG]]

Ofcorse this peak assumes a completly Free-Market consumption of oil, the whole OPEC cartel and oil embargo has already deviated oil production off of the curcve it was on and is oil is now being released onto the market based on the whims of Arab Princes. This makes the whole thing suspect.

Lets also be clear here, "Geologic Oil" the stuff we pump out of the Ground is a non-renewable resorse and THUS its production must eventualy decline.

This is not to say that the world must or will run out of "Oil" defined as "liquid hydrocarbons I can but in an internal combustion engine and burn". Already we are getting a significant portion of our "Oil" from sources other then Geologic Oil. It is entirly possible for us to someday transition to completly Renewable sources of Oil atwhich point Geologic oil might simply be abandoned as the remaining deposits could become unprofitable.

[Solly]

Oil will never run out. All that will happen is that when its price starts to rise, other fuel technologies become viable and widespread.

At present, they are not.

[Spiffor]

Originally posted by Lawrence of Arabia
tell me, how does future world oil production hit a 'peak' if prices are always rising - that would seem to show that more and more oil fields become profitable to drill.

As Impaler said, there is a finite supply of geological oil on earth. Even though we are not tapping all potential sources yet, there's a moment where there will be no new oil fields ripe for drilling.

The question is not whether it will happen (everybody, even oil companies, agree that the depletion of this geological resource is bound to happen), but when, how, and to what effect.

[Lawrence of Arabia]

Ofcorse this peak assumes a completly Free-Market consumption of oil, the whole OPEC cartel and oil embargo has already deviated oil production off of the curcve it was on and is oil is now being released onto the market based on the whims of Arab Princes. This makes the whole thing suspect.

Lets also be clear here, "Geologic Oil" the stuff we pump out of the Ground is a non-renewable resorse and THUS its production must eventualy decline.

what do you mean its production will decline? production will remain at full possible, no matter how much is left. if we have 10 oil wells total in the world, all of them will be running at full capacity. no 'peak' will ever get reached. oil is only limited by how quickly we can get it ou and how much we get out a day. no peak is ever reached in supply.

[Spiffor]

Are you drunk, or are you just a fanatic?

[Sandman]

I'm sceptical that a gas-guzzling society like America will be able to quickly change direction with no real problems.

[Solly]

Originally posted by Spiffor

As Impaler said, there is a finite supply of geological oil on earth.

Stricly speaking, I suppose so. But some of that oil can not be drilled economically unless the price of oil is above $80. Ditto $100$ a barrel etc. Only when oil becomes more expensive than the next viable technology will oil consumption start to really decline.

Let the markets do their work rather than all this scare-mongering.

[Mr. Harley]

Spiffor's anaylysis is largely correct. One of the reasons that, given the current state of the USA economy, fuel sector, and transportation sector, that our fuel demand is largely inelastic, at least in the short term. The, the US economy, due to its not engaging in the lead-in technologies/infrastructure/mass transit will be hit VERY hard when a pseudo-peak oil point hits.

But it won't be "Peak Oil" per se. It will be "Peak Cheap Oil". If the US would grow up, and eliminate one of those "Perfect Storms" - the oil companies tremendous level of political access in the US, and the Greens denial of actual technological levels along with their fanatical insistance everybody think like they do - then we could start the transition now, gong with semi-electric cars with tuned 5HP generators - I believe Volvo was working hard on the tech before the morons in California insisted the lack of zero emmission vehicles was conspiracy, not real-technology (versus real-politik) - where a family Station Wagon gets 70 MPG.

The adjustments will hit the USA paticularly hard, unless Congress and both parties get their butts in gear. I don't see it happening until after the crisis hits, so the USA will hit a very long period of very low economic growth due to the increase in energy prices. I see no way around that unless in the next decade or so we get a political leader who can get past the free market mantra (say mostly inelastic demand three times to banish that demon) and a total marginalization of the Green element in the Conservation movement. Kismet.

[Lawrence of Arabia]

spiffs analysis is largely not correct - there is no peak oil. even if there are no more oil fields left to drill, we still haven't reached 'peak oil' - supply has been decreasing since the day we started drilling. the only peak there ever was, was before we started digging, when 100% of oil was still in the ground.

[Kuciwalker]

Originally posted by Spiffor
As Impaler said, there is a finite supply of geological oil on earth. Even though we are not tapping all potential sources yet, there's a moment where there will be no new oil fields ripe for drilling.

The question is not whether it will happen (everybody, even oil companies, agree that the depletion of this geological resource is bound to happen), but when, how, and to what effect.

Given the vast amounts of currently uneconomical oil that can be exploited, this peak would occur far in the future, after oil production has already fallen off due to new energy technologies (they'll eventually happen).

[Spiffor]

Originally posted by Lawrence of Arabia
spiffs analysis is largely not correct - there is no peak oil. even if there are no more oil fields left to drill, we still haven't reached 'peak oil' - supply has been decreasing since the day we started drilling. the only peak there ever was, was before we started digging, when 100% of oil was still in the ground.

"peak oil" is not my analysis. I just told you the definition from Wikipedia, and the concept can be criticized. What I'm speaking about in my analysis is not "peak oil", it's the fact that oil will one day become rarer, and thus much more expansive.

And that the reality of the world (not that world of mathematical formulae you seem to live in) will make it a time of economic hardships.

[Spiffor]

Originally posted by Kuciwalker
Given the vast amounts of currently uneconomical oil that can be exploited, this peak would occur far in the future, after oil production has already fallen off due to new energy technologies (they'll eventually happen).

According to Wikipedia, the most optimistic specialists expect "peak oil" to occur toward the end of the century. This is not so far in the future that we'd live in a world where energy technology will be completely different.

Especially if we remain complacent, and thus dependent of oil for our energy.