Let the good times roll -- 146,000 new jobs added

[el freako]

Originally posted by DanS
Yesterday afternoon, I tracked down that spreadsheet, which you you posted previously. While I think your calculations have high utility, I maintain my position that it's better to have employment as a percentage of age 15+ rather than a more arbitrary working age population figure. We could argue about whether to account for the prison population, but I feel much less strongly about taking that into account.

Trust you to choose a measure that will flatter your nation and your political stance

The truth is that in both US and Europe the percentage of those working above the age of 65 is in low single figures, if the working age population was defined as 15-60 then there would be differences favouring europe, but when using 15-65 there is little effect (which is why, when I had the choice of using 15-60 and 15-65 I chose the latter).

All the change to adult population does is make for a larger demoniator for europe, flattering younger nations.
However, as has been pointed out, only a tiny proportion of people continue to work above the age of 65 so including the whole population makes little sense unless you are including them as 'supported population' - in which case you should also include those aged under 16 as well as they are also supported by those in work.

The proper measures should either be employment as % of working age population (15-64), this shows how many people have jobs compared to the age-group that makes up over 95% of the workforce and as such is good for comparing relative labour markets.
Or, if you want to measure how many people a worker has to support then you should use employment as % of total population, his measure is good for comparing the relative burden on those in work.
The US's preferred measure of adults who are not in prison is good for nothing except promoting obscurantism.

[DanS]

Originally posted by el freako
Trust you to choose a measure that will flatter your nation and your political stance

Look at it as a pre-emptive strike against comparisons with countries that retire people early to keep people out of the ranks of unemployed. I think this pre-emption is warranted for purposes of our discussions here.

The truth is that in both US and Europe the percentage of those working above the age of 65 is in low single figures

While as far as I know this is roughly true currently (I would like to see the figures, if you have them), it also is likely to change, at least in the US. The accepted retirement age is going up in the US.

[MosesPresley]

I'm way late to this thread, but I thought this article was relevant.

July 12, 2005
The Jobs Problem is Worse Than the War Problem
The No-Think Nation

By PAUL CRAIG ROBERTS

Thought is not an American forte. Consider the speed with which our government got us trapped in two quagmires, Iraq and Afghanistan.

The CIA says that Bush's invasion of Iraq has created ideal conditions for training insurgents and terrorists. The longer we are there, the worse it gets.

Our military is being worn down by a gratuitous war of no benefit to anyone except Osama bin Laden. Bush's war has provided substance for bin Laden's propaganda and radicalized the Middle East.

Bush's war is being financed by debt, and the result is to give our foreign bankers more control over our interest rates and our currency's value, should they choose to use the power we have placed in their hands.

Not only has our government demonstrated an inability to think before rushing to war, it cannot think about the economy either.

Each month in the 21st century the government's own statistics tell the tale of the US winding down as a superpower and devolving into a third world country. Not a single net new high tech or manufacturing job has been created for native-born Americans in the 21st century.

Month after month this devastating information is released and ignored.
Now comes a report from Richard Freeman, professor of economics at Harvard University and associate of the National Bureau of Economic Research. Freeman's conclusions suggest that the US is not only losing its lead in science and engineering but also might be losing the professions themselves.

A country that outsources its manufacturing and its R&D abroad doesn't have jobs for its own engineers and scientists.

Corporations have moved many information technology, high-tech manufacturing, engineering, and research and development jobs away from America to lower cost countries principally in Asia. The result is declining opportunities and salaries for American graduates in science and engineering, which discourages students from these curriculums.

As my free market friends are found of saying, "the market works." It certainly does. The market is working to close down the great American middle class and to dismantle the ladders of upward mobility.

The US economy in the 21st century has been able to create new jobs only in nontradable domestic services. A labor market orientated toward domestic services is the hallmark of a third world economy.

The jobs problem is more serious than the war problem and receives even less attention. Economists misperceive the offshore outsourcing of jobs as the beneficial workings of free trade, a subject they have given scant thought for 200 years, being, as they are, content with Ricardo's demonstration that comparative advantage ensures mutual gains from trade.

America's no-think economists have yet to fathom that the offshore outsourcing of jobs reflects the workings of absolute advantage, not comparative advantage. When American capital, technology and business know-how employ foreigners in place of Americans, foreigners benefit and Americans lose.

In the short-run the corporations benefit. The lower labor costs raise profits and executive bonuses. But the long-run effect is to destroy the US consumer market for the goods and services that the corporations supply from abroad.

American profits and American employment no longer move in tandem. A recent report in the New York Times by John Markoff and Matt Richtel says profits have rebounded in Silicon Valley but not employment. They use the example of Wyse Technology, a maker of computer terminals.

At the beginning of this year, 90 percent of Wyse's work force was in Silicon Valley. At the present time the figure is 48 percent, with only 15 percent of its engineers remaining in Silicon Valley. The reason?

Wyse has created technology development teams in India and China, adding 100 employees in India and 35 in China so far this year.

America has a new development model, one unprecedented in history. The growth and prosperity of American corporations is now keyed directly to the employment of foreign workers in place of Americans.

It is impossible for a country to prosper when its capital, technology, and business knowledge are used to enhance the productivity of foreign workers in place of its own. American incomes are stagnating and falling. By abandoning American employees, corporations are eroding the great American consumer market and America's position in the first world.

Paul Craig Roberts has held a number of academic appointments and has contributed to numerous scholarly publications. He served as Assistant Secretary of the Treasury in the Reagan administration. His graduate economics education was at the University of Virginia, the University of California at Berkeley, and Oxford University. He is coauthor of The Tyranny of Good Intentions. He can be reached at: paulcraigroberts@yahoo.com

[Lawrence of Arabia]

pretty interesting - too bad he has no evidence that india has an absolute advantage in the sector that he did not name, nor did he say that having an absolute advantage doesnt mean **** in economics, where everything is relative.

[Kuciwalker]

As my free market friends are found of saying, "the market works." It certainly does. The market is working to close down the great American middle class and to dismantle the ladders of upward mobility.

The US economy in the 21st century has been able to create new jobs only in nontradable domestic services. A labor market orientated toward domestic services is the hallmark of a third world economy.

This is just like the guy advocating Canada secede

[Ramo]

Yay, we're barely keeping pace with workforce growth. Let the good times roll.

[el freako]

Originally posted by DanS
Look at it as a pre-emptive strike against comparisons with countries that retire people early to keep people out of the ranks of unemployed. I think this pre-emption is warranted for purposes of our discussions here.

As I pointed out this would be appropriate if I had selected 15-60 as the working age population, but I used 15-65 precisely to make sure comparability was highest (which is the prime test all my statistics have to undergo)

Originally posted by DanS
While as far as I know this is roughly true currently (I would like to see the figures, if you have them), it also is likely to change, at least in the US. The accepted retirement age is going up in the US.

I'm not sure you have thought this through properly - if the average retirement age in the US rises from it's current 60-65 to 65-70 then the working age population can easily be adjusted to mean 15-70, including 15-100+ will only distort the picture (at least as far as using these statistics to measure the labour-market).

[pchang]

Moses Presley's article contains a lot of bold assertions with no backup. Many outsourcing projects have been declared failures and the rate of outsourcing is slowing. In Biotech, many European countries have "outsourced" their R&D to the US.

[Kidlicious]

It would be interesting to see if DanS would make a thread called "Let the good times roll - 1 job created."

[Lawrence of Arabia]

let the good times roll - republican prez's are bad for the economy but my head is too far in the sand to care!


bla bla bla bla . . . . icant hear you

[DAVOUT]

Originally posted by Kidicious
It would be interesting to see if DanS would make a thread called "Let the good times roll - 1 job created."

Before that happens, he will take the Chinese passport, so that he could write : "Let the good times roll - 1 million jobs created."

[DanS]

Some of you are incapable of accepting good news. It's the worst mental illness to have.

[el freako]

Originally posted by DanS


Some of you are incapable of accepting good news. It's the worst mental illness to have.

What worse than a case of incurable spinning of mediocre data to be wonderful?

[DanS]

Mediocre is at least slightly too negative a way of describing the data. We're near full employment and the labor market is growing at a rate that will bring us to full employment soon enough, barring a recession.

[el freako]

Originally posted by DanS
Mediocre is at least slightly too negative a way of describing the data. We're near full employment and the labor market is growing at a rate that will bring us to full employment soon enough, barring a recession.

Actually it's a perfectly accurate way of describing the data.

Using the BLS data, the 'Civilian noninstitutional population' is growing at 224,000 a month (that's the average over the last 5 years).
Currently employment is 62.7% of the 'Civilian noninstitutional population' so to just keep the ratio stable there needs to be employment growth of 140,000 a month.

However that current employment rate of 62.7% is way below the 'full employment' peak of 64.6% reached in 2000 and even below the peak reached in 1990 of 63.2%.
At a rate of 180,000 jobs per month it will take until October 2007 for the employment rate to reach it's 1990 peak and it won't be until May 2014 for the rate to equal the 64.6% of early 2000 (which means it won't happen as a recession/prolonged slowdown is almost certain before then)
So, nearly 9 years is 'full employment soon enough' eh? You are commendably long-term in view, if a little skewed on how to interpret the data.