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  • Global Warming to increase Hurricane occurance?

    I just read that to form a hurricane the sea would need to be at least 26°C warm and a lot of condensation need to occur.

    The wikipedia article says:
    Structurally, a tropical cyclone is a large, rotating area of clouds, wind and thunderstorm activity. The primary energy source of a tropical cyclone is the release of the heat of condensation from water vapor condensing at high altitudes. Because of this, a tropical cyclone can be thought of as a giant vertical heat engine.

    The ingredients for a tropical cyclone include a pre-existing weather disturbance, warm tropical oceans, moisture, and relatively light winds aloft. If the right conditions persist long enough, they can combine to produce the violent winds, incredible waves, torrential rains, and floods associated with this phenomenon.

    This use of condensation as a driving force is the primary difference which distinguishes tropical cyclones from other meteorological phenomena. Mid-latitude cyclones, for example, draw their energy mostly from pre-existing temperature gradients in the atmosphere. In order to continue to drive its heat engine, a tropical cyclone must remain over warm water, which provides the atmospheric moisture needed. The evaporation of this moisture is driven by the high winds and reduced atmospheric pressure present in the storm, resulting in a sustaining cycle. As a result, when a tropical cyclone passes over land, its strength will diminish rapidly.

    A hurricane can be viewed as a localized, runaway greenhouse effect. The driving force, the source of the energy, is the sun. The sun warms the water and leads to increased evaporation. Water vapor is an effective greenhouse gas. The heating of the oceanic water is never quite uniform. When locally there is increased temperature, there will be increased evaporation providing a positive feedback mechanism. As the heated air expands and rises, the air pressure is lowered. The air cannot rise indefinitely and will spread at higher altitudes, where the vapor will condense and form clouds. The clouds shield the underlaying water by reflecting the solar radiation. This enhances the localizing effect. The Coriolis effect provides for the circular motion.
    This makes me wonder, since with all the talk about global warming the number of hurricanes would have to increase.

  • #2
    Well it has been mentioned before that global warming won't see a static increase in temperatures at all points around the globe, but in general, and that this will contribute to more violent weather patterns.
    I'm consitently stupid- Japher
    I think that opinion in the United States is decidedly different from the rest of the world because we have a free press -- by free, I mean a virgorously presented right wing point of view on the air and available to all.- Ned

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    • #3
      The fog also, once it gets really hot. After that, expect daily steam forecasts on the news.

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      • #4
        Originally posted by Theben
        Well it has been mentioned before that global warming won't see a static increase in temperatures at all points around the globe, but in general, and that this will contribute to more violent weather patterns.
        There were also lots of news recently about the mediteranian sea getting hotter faster than all the other seas and that the climate in south-spain, italy and such might become tropical one day.

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        • #5
          STFU terrorist

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          • #6
            That's pretty much one of the main problems of global warming - the severe weather. Flooding really is tame compared to that.

            (And hasn't there been a increase in hurricanes/severe weather the past couple of years? Obviously it's a bit early to make conclusions, but one can at least look at te patterns)

            Global warming can cause all types of stuff, from an ice age to a runaway greenhouse effect, making Earth Venus 2.0.
            "Compromises are not always good things. If one guy wants to drill a five-inch hole in the bottom of your life boat, and the other person doesn't, a compromise of a two-inch hole is still stupid." - chegitz guevara
            "Bill3000: The United Demesos? Boy, I was young and stupid back then.
            Jasonian22: Bill, you are STILL young and stupid."

            "is it normal to imaginne dartrh vader and myself in a tjhreee way with some hot chick? i'ts always been my fantasy" - Dis

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            • #7
              Originally posted by Bill3000
              making Earth Venus 2.0.
              That ain't gonna happen, well at least not in the next billion years...

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              • #8
                Originally posted by Atahualpa


                There were also lots of news recently about the mediteranian sea getting hotter faster than all the other seas and that the climate in south-spain, italy and such might become tropical one day.
                I don't think Earth is going to get THAT warm. a global increase of 5F isn't going to put jungles near Naples and Gibraltar.

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                • #9
                  Another consideration is the continuing effects of Tsunami.
                  As it shifted the earth on it's axis, I'm curious what's in store.
                  Life is not measured by the number of breaths you take, but by the moments that take your breath away.
                  "Hating America is something best left to Mobius. He is an expert Yank hater.
                  He also hates Texans and Australians, he does diversify." ~ Braindead

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                  • #10
                    Originally posted by Odin


                    I don't think Earth is going to get THAT warm. a global increase of 5F isn't going to put jungles near Naples and Gibraltar.
                    Why not?

                    5F would put Naples at almost exactly the same average temperature as Rio de Janeiro
                    12-17-10 Mohamed Bouazizi NEVER FORGET
                    Stadtluft Macht Frei
                    Killing it is the new killing it
                    Ultima Ratio Regum

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                    • #11
                      Originally posted by Odin


                      That ain't gonna happen, well at least not in the next billion years...
                      Read on the runaway greenhouse effect. It's still a possibility if the Earth reaches a critical temperature.
                      "Compromises are not always good things. If one guy wants to drill a five-inch hole in the bottom of your life boat, and the other person doesn't, a compromise of a two-inch hole is still stupid." - chegitz guevara
                      "Bill3000: The United Demesos? Boy, I was young and stupid back then.
                      Jasonian22: Bill, you are STILL young and stupid."

                      "is it normal to imaginne dartrh vader and myself in a tjhreee way with some hot chick? i'ts always been my fantasy" - Dis

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                      • #12
                        Originally posted by Bill3000


                        Read on the runaway greenhouse effect. It's still a possibility if the Earth reaches a critical temperature.
                        Yes, but there is no way we would reach it, even if we burned ALL the fossile fuel deposits on earth, at worst we will melt all the continental ice sheets and send the earth back to Mesozoic-type warmth. Thermal runaway will not occur untill the slow increase in solar lumosity causes the carbonate cycle to draw down CO2 levels to the minimum allowed for photosynthesis. At that point the negative foodback loop breaks down since any drop in CO2 would result in a mass extinction of plants, causing CO2 levels to increase. With the breakdown of the carbonate thermostat, there is nothing stoping the incresingly hot sun initiating the wet greenhouse effect, the same thing that turned Venus into a hellhole.

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                        • #13
                          Originally posted by KrazyHorse

                          5F would put Naples at almost exactly the same average temperature as Rio de Janeiro
                          For starters they're not getting the same average rainfall nor the winds from central Africa...
                          I'm consitently stupid- Japher
                          I think that opinion in the United States is decidedly different from the rest of the world because we have a free press -- by free, I mean a virgorously presented right wing point of view on the air and available to all.- Ned

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by Theben


                            For starters they're not getting the same average rainfall nor the winds from central Africa...
                            I know. Just pointing out that a small difference in average temperature has huge implications.
                            12-17-10 Mohamed Bouazizi NEVER FORGET
                            Stadtluft Macht Frei
                            Killing it is the new killing it
                            Ultima Ratio Regum

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                            • #15
                              Did anyone see that 50 million dollars of damage was done today in Beijing?

                              Also, did you see that it was done by HAILSTONES?
                              "I predict your ignore will rival Ben's" - Ecofarm
                              ^ The Poly equivalent of:
                              "I hope you can see this 'cause I'm [flipping you off] as hard as I can" - Ignignokt the Mooninite

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