Will the US lose the war in Iraq by running out of soldiers?

[lord of the mark]

And, BTW, the one recruitment that has gone steadily up, is that of Iraqis recruited to the new Iraqi forces.

[Sandman]

Why gloat?

I mean, if we ever have a real reason to invade a Muslim country, then it'll be much harder, thanks to the education in warfare the insurgents are getting.

[lord of the mark]

Originally posted by Sandman
Why gloat?

I mean, if we ever have a real reason to invade a Muslim country, then it'll be much harder, thanks to the education in warfare the insurgents are getting.

the former regime element insurgents are unlikely to go anywhere other than Iraq.

So its the foreign jihadis you must be referring too. Given their inclination to suicidal tactics, i wonder how many of them are going to survive to fight elsewhere. And of course learning goes both ways.

[Sandman]

Suicide units make up an insignificant portion of the insurgent force, LOTM.

[lord of the mark]

Originally posted by Sandman
Suicide units make up an insignificant portion of the insurgent force, LOTM.

of the total insurgent force I agree. But of the foreign jihadis specifically? And even when engaging in conventional operations, their approach is different.

remember the US op in Fallujah in December??? Folks were saying the insurgency is mainly Iraqis, hardly any foreigners. US pointed to all the bodies of guys identified as foreigners, relatively few who appeared to be Iraqis. What I heard then was that the Iraqis fought, then ran when it made sense too, while the foreigners, who had come to Iraq for martyrdom, were the ones who fought to the death.

[Dinner]

That's because EVERYONE knew there was going to be a show down in Fallujah so the locals all left ahead of time. The foreigners, however, all ran into the city.

[Ultraviolet]

Originally posted by Sandman

I mean, if we ever have a real reason to invade a Muslim country, then it'll be much harder, thanks to the education in warfare the insurgents are getting.

I think Muslim is the key word here...

No offense to Muslims, but is there a predominately Muslim country that doesn't hate the US?

Unlike other countries that simply sit on their little butts and laugh at the US, these Muslim nations are a bit more proactive...not to make a big deal out of it, but 9/11 is an example...

I'm sorry, but Muslim nations appear to be the biggest threat to the US, and it has come to my understanding that you eliminate threats before they become too strong and overrun you...

I don't like war, but I'd rather have American marines dying in Iraq than American citizens dying in New York City...

[Dinner]

The problem with that theory is that in reality people in New York are now more likely to dye now then before we invaded Iraq.

BTW to the DL

[lord of the mark]

Originally posted by Oerdin
That's because EVERYONE knew there was going to be a show down in Fallujah so the locals all left ahead of time. The foreigners, however, all ran into the city.

the Iraqi insurgents left - and lived to fight another day.

The foreign fighters ran INTO the city - and became shaheed, right?

Thats my point.

[Sandman]

They took substantial losses (probably more than Iraq) fighting in Afghanistan against the Russians. Didn't really stop them, did it?

[SlowwHand]

Re: Will the US lose the war in Iraq by running out of soldiers?

Originally posted by MOBIUS
Six more soldiers dead today, as many US soldiers in Iraq as during the invasion two years ago, minority support for the war, plunging enlistment rates as potential recruits decide they don't want to be maimed or killed for a cause they no longer believe in...

Maybe all the insurgents have to do is hold out until the US runs out of soldiers?

Yeah. Highly likely scenario. About as likely as you deciding to give back.
I find it interesting that military members committment remains high, as I also note that both Bush and Blair won reelection.
Who's really out of step with reality in this?

Back at the ranch, Hussein cultivates his love of Cheetos and Dorito chips, all the while insisting he's still president of Iraq.
Do y'all read the same comic books? Play the same fantasy RPG's?
I bet you do.

[lord of the mark]

Originally posted by Sandman
They took substantial losses (probably more than Iraq) fighting in Afghanistan against the Russians. Didn't really stop them, did it?

most of the lossed in Afghanistan, IIUC, were locals, not foreign mujahadeen.

But plenty of them did martyr themselves, Im sure. And no it didnt stop them, they kept right on recruiting - as Im sure AQ will continue to do after Iraq, win or lose. I wasnt saying that Iraq will kill AQ.

But how many of the fighters in Iraq are veterans of Afghanistan? Applying their combat expertise from Afghanistan? I was merely challenging the assertion that this will make future interventions in muslim countries more difficult. Not that Im eager for lots of those right now anyway.

[BlackCat]

Originally posted by Sandman
They took substantial losses (probably more than Iraq) fighting in Afghanistan against the Russians. Didn't really stop them, did it?

Big difference- most Afghanis was against the russian invasion where most Iraquis are supporting the liberation forces (ok, they also want us to leave but not before it's safe .

[Dinner]

Iraq creating new breed of jihadists, says CIA

Ewen MacAskill, Duncan Campbell and Richard Norton-Taylor
Thursday June 23, 2005
The Guardian

The war in Iraq is creating a new breed of Islamic jihadists who could go on to destabilise other countries, according to a CIA report.

The CIA believes Iraq to be potentially worse than Afghanistan, which produced thousands of jihadists in the 1980s and 1990s. Many of the recruits to Osama bin Laden's al-Qaida had fought in Afghanistan.

The sobering caution came as a senior British anti-terrorism source warned that those trained in terror techniques in Iraq could use their newly-acquired skills in Britain at the end of the war.

The CIA report, completed last month, remains classified. But a CIA source yesterday confirmed that its broad conclusions, disclosed by the New York Times yesterday, were accurate.

The concern expressed in the CIA report contrasts with the optimism of US defence secretary Donald Rumsfeld two years ago when he welcomed the prospect of Iraq as a magnet for jihadists.

The Foreign Office and British security services are sceptical about the CIA assessment that the insurgency could spill into other countries. Security sources said that there was only a "trickle" of recruits from Britain joining the insurgency in Iraq.

If there was to be a spill-over, Saudi Arabia is potentially vulnerable because many of the Arab fighters in Iraq originate from there. Jamal Khashoggi, media adviser to the Saudi ambassador in London, said yesterday he agreed in part with the US assessment.

"It will be worse than Afghanistan," he said. "We are talking about a very brutal type, a very weird version of Islam in Iraq. It is very scary."

Mr Khashoggi predicted the approach of the Saudi government towards jihadists returning from Iraq will be very different from those returning from Afghanistan and Chechnya. "Any al-Qaida coming back from Iraq will be hunted. It is not like they have gone to Chechnya and will be coming back as heroes. If they come back from Iraq and brag about it, they will be snatched by security in a day or two."

The CIA report suggests the new breed of jihadists will be more deadly than those who fought in Afghanistan. It said that they have learned skills in urban warfare in Iraq.

While the number of Iraq attacks have diminished, they have become more deadly. More than 1,000 Iraqis and 120 US soldiers have been killed since the new Iraqi cabinet was formed in April.

Insurgents once again demonstrated their capacity for inflicting carnage on civilians when they detonated four cars bombs in western Baghdad last night, killing at least 23 people and injuring around 50. At least one was driven by a suicide bomber.

Earlier a bomb attack on a US military patrol killed three civilians. It was claimed by the al-Qaida group led by Abu Musab al Zarqawi.

There are about 200 individuals in Britain who are suspected of having received training in camps in Afghanistan and Chechnya. Senior anti-terrorist officials suggest many fewer have gone to Iraq.

Ken Jones, the chairman of the Association of Chief Police Officers' terrorism committee and chief constable of Sussex, said yesterday Britain would remain a prime target.

"There is an inevitable targeting of the United Kingdom and UK interests abroad," Mr Jones told a conference on terrorism organised by the Royal United Services Institute in London. "The threat will endure for the foreseeable future." But he added: "it is not inevitable that they will succeed."

Mr Jones noted that those involved in terrorism no longer necessarily came from the "excluded and marginalised" but were increasingly "highly intelligent, educated young people". In past terrorist campaigns, he said, there had been a clear goal or aim. The new form of attacks required a different response.

One of the most important ways to combat the growth of terrorism, he suggested, was by encouraging "confident communities" - a clear reference to Britain's Muslims -that would be aware of suspicious activities and would feel confident in reporting them.

Police in Manchester were last night given another 48 hours to question a 40-year-old man of north African origin, who was arrested under the Terrorism Act on Tuesday. It is believed that the man had shared a house in Moss Side with Idris Bazis, 41, a French-Algerian with a French passport, who blew himself up in a suicide attack in Iraq in February. Anti-terrorist sources say there is no link between the Manchester arrest and recent arrests of 11 men in Spain suspected of being connected with the Iraq insurgency.

Parents of 17 British soldiers killed in Iraq called today in a letter to The Guardian for an independent inquiry into the decision to go to war in Iraq.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/Iraq/Story/0,2763,1512597,00.html

[Sandman]

But how many of the fighters in Iraq are veterans of Afghanistan? Applying their combat expertise from Afghanistan? I was merely challenging the assertion that this will make future interventions in muslim countries more difficult.

You're challenging my assertion with an assertion of your own; namely that foreign fighters (and Iraqis who might be willing to travel) suffer such a high casualty rate that they won't be able to pass on their experience to anyone.