Sell Yer Euros

[Dinner]

Originally posted by Spiffor

However, it's perfectly true. We're witnessing a brutal hit against the principle of quiet consensus. In the latest years, reaching consensus has been increasingly frustrating, but possible. Now, we're at the crossroads, and consensus will simply not work anymore.

The EU as we know it is in crisis. The budget row is a mere collateral damage of a much more serious symptom: the consensus isn't working.

It's hard to claim Chirac or his muppet Junckers were attempting to reach consensus when they refused to negotiate. It is equally hard to blame the UK for the budget problem when Chirac and Junckers just walked in demand that the UK pay for everything without any other member contributing a damn thing. Those type of demands are what caused this and it won't be solved until Chirac stops behaiving like a child. This is nothing more then a budget debate which Chirac and Junckers are attempting to spin into a "The UK hates Euro other wise they'd agree to be the only one to pay for the budget problems". Eventually Juncker's Presidency will end and he'll sink back into irrelvancy while either Chirac will walk up and start negotiating or the next German government may actually grow a backbone and join the UK in standing up to unreasonable French demands.

[kronic]

Originally posted by BeBro


Kohl hardly ever made hard choices. A large part of our problems today is due to 16 years Kohl without structural reforms in social swystems etc. Thats why he was voted out finally, since after the unification the problems became worse quickly. He handled the unification (foreign-politics-wise) as such excellent, but failed miserably to reach what we call the "inner unity" of Germany (economy, social politics etc.). In domestic affairs the later Kohl years were just lost years for Germany.

Especially the way he financed the costs of the unfication was the worst possible one. Kohl's post-unification economic policies were disastrous. And Germany will have to carry a huge burden for a long time.

Anyway, I agree with Spiffor. We have now a battle over what the EU should be. The UK & Co. don't want a political union, but Germany, France and others want one. So there's no other way than to create a core that integrates faster. Of course, this is unacceptable to the UK since it would mean a loss of influence. This is not so much about CAP. With CAP gone, the UK still wouldn't want a political union.

[Lawrence of Arabia]

plus, the fed is expected to raise US interest rates at the end of june and in august (both times by a quarter point, or so says the ny times in an article i read a few days ago)

[kronic]

Originally posted by Oerdin
It is equally hard to blame the UK for the budget problem when Chirac and Junckers just walked in demand that the UK pay for everything without any other member contributing a damn thing.

[Dinner]

Originally posted by BeBro

Kohl hardly ever made hard choices.

That's why I wrote a practical man like Kohl but with backbone. In other words a man who will work with all parties to et things done but who will actually stand up to a member when they are being unreasonable. An excellent case where such a backbone would have come in handy was the recent budget talks. If the German deligation had simply told the French that it is unreasonable for CAP to hog 40% of the EU budget and that any budget cuts would have to include CAP then a resolution would have been completed and the budget talks would have been a success. Yes, it would have made Chirac unpopular but who cares? We're talking about an organization which is supposed to be run for the greater good and not just to keep Chirac's party in office.

[kronic]

Originally posted by Oerdin


That's why I wrote a practical man like Kohl but with backbone. In other words a man who will work with all parties to et things done but who will actually stand up to a member when they are being unreasonable. An excellent case where such a backbone would have come in handy was the recent budget talks. If the German deligation had simply told the French that it is unreasonable for CAP to hog 40% of the EU budget and that any budget cuts would have to include CAP then a resolution would have been completed and the budget talks would have been a success. Yes, it would have made Chirac unpopular but who cares? We're talking about an organization which is supposed to be run for the greater good and not just to keep Chirac's party in office.

I think you're getting something seriously wrong here. Kohl sacrificed a lot of German positions in order to make the EU work. No other nation would have done similar things. But the times, when Germans could easily give up their own positions are over. We don't have the economic strength anymore to finance every compromise. But anyway, the summit didn't fail because of Schröder. If France and the UK can't get their **** together, Germany can't do much.

[Dinner]

Originally posted by kronic

The demand made was that the UK should give up its rebate without any other substantial changes being made. That's pretty one sided and of course the UK didn't agree.

[kronic]

Yes, the UK should give up the rebate...the Brits could have got even more than they get now.

[Dinner]

Originally posted by kronic

I think you're getting something seriously wrong here. Kohl sacrificed a lot of German positions in order to make the EU work. No other nation would have done similar things. But the times, when Germans could easily give up their own positions are over. We don't have the economic strength anymore to finance every compromise. But anyway, the summit didn't fail because of Schröder. If France and the UK can't get their **** together, Germany can't do much.

Yep, Kohl was very practical (I.E. found ways to get things done) but didn't have backbone (I.E. wouldn't make hard choices thus much of Germany's problems then and now). CAP and the rebate can both be completed over the French objection if Germany was to stop always blindly agreeing to everything the French say and instead sided with the UK against France on a few key issues. That would break the log jam and get things moving again. Chirac would still have his veto but it would be very hard for a French leader to veto a proposal which expanded federal powers, which the other major EU states had already agreed to, even if it cut CAP. Especially if it cut or eliminated the British rebate he has whined so much about.

The kicker is the US would likely end farm subsidies if the EU agreed to kill CAP.

[Dinner]

Originally posted by kronic
Yes, the UK should give up the rebate...the Brits could have got even more than they get now.

I'm not following you. The UK was offered nothing for giving up the rebate. What the British asked for was not more spending but a cut in spending programs like farm subsidies. If France agrees to cut or end farm subsidies then the UK will agree to cut or end the rebate. That's a pretty fair offer and it hard to claim the UK is being greedy when they're offering a way to free up 40%-45% of the EU budget. That's a HUGE budget savings!

[Odin]

Originally posted by Oerdin

The kicker is the US would likely end farm subsidies if the EU agreed to kill CAP.

won't happen, cutting farm subsidies is political suicide in the US.

[BlackCat]

Originally posted by Odin


won't happen, cutting farm subsidies is political suicide in the US.

Wich also is the case in France, but it has to be done - if not in one shap cut, then over f.ex 10 years. It's a hopeless waste of resources/money and prevents development in third world countries.

[Dinner]

Originally posted by kronic

So there's no other way than to create a core that integrates faster. Of course, this is unacceptable to the UK since it would mean a loss of influence. This is not so much about CAP. With CAP gone, the UK still wouldn't want a political union.

The UK and others would agree to some form of union if it was sold right but it would not be the strong federal government some people are looking for. If it matters every nation which has highly diverse populations which has survived as a nation (without military repression a la China) was a federal state. The federal government by nature devolves certain decision making powers to the members but reserves certain other things for the federal government. The federal government gets to set monitary policy, immigration policy, some level of common military & defense policy, a federal court system which outranks the national courts, the right to create legislation setting minimal standards in a wide varity of areas (consumer protection laws, public safety, the enviroment, etc), and some level of tax law.

The EU already has limited or full control over these areas and these could be sold in the other parts of the EU if it was done correctly. Joint foreign policy won't happen because that's the kind of stuff which citizens will automatically rail against and the first Iraq style crisis would bring the system crashing down anyway. Foreign policy will have to not be included for this reason. The rest of it could be voted in by popular vote if everyone gave up something and so thought they were coming out the winner. The UK would have to get to kill the CAP, France would have to get to kill the rebate, Sweden & Holland would have to get to cut the amount they give to the EU (which would be easy if CAP and the rebate were axed), and Germany would also have to see some reductions in contributions.

The end result would be a smaller EU government but one which worked much, much better. It would have clear control over certain areas plus the vetos would be gone. Majority voting would be the norm except for a few 2/3 majority votes here and there. This is doable but not by Chirac or Schoder. Tony might be able to sell it in the UK but he's been damaged by the war. Luckily, Gordon Brown just might be up to the job.

[Dinner]

Originally posted by Odin


won't happen, cutting farm subsidies is political suicide in the US.

Is that why the US eliminated all farm subsidies for two years beginning in the late 1990s? Yes, the US ended all farm subsidies because the EU promised that if we did then they'd do the same. As soon as we axed farm subsidies the bastard French went and INCREASED the farm subsidies paid out by CAP. The US felt betrayed and reinstituted farm subsidies.

The US has shown the will to eliminate farm subsidies in the recent past but this time we won't do it unless the EU does it first or at least at the exact same time. We've been burned once by that false promise.

[Lawrence of Arabia]

who cares what they didi. tw wrongs dont make it right. why should we care what the eu does wit their farm subsidies. why dont we do the right thing.