The science behind the probability of extraterrestrials

[reds4ever]

Originally posted by Agathon

Exactly, if you don't know what numbers to plug in, whats the point?

We can make pretty reasonable estimates for a lot of the variables.

True, but it only takes couple to be slightly off and you're screwed (so to speak )

So what use is the 'equation'? (and I use the term lightly)

[Dis]

intersting stuff at the bottom

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inverse_gambler%27s_fallacy

actually, there's interesting stuff at the top too, but that deals more with my line of business I work at.

[MrFun]

This is speculation on this particular signal, but here are a couple of articles about it.

the WOW signal

more on the WOW signa

[Drake Tungsten]

I think the problem is your failing to comprehend basic words...

Yes, because we all know that context is not important to interpretation at all. I'm sure he really meant that human life isn't possible...

At any rate, the anthropic principal addresses even the "unlikely" argument, not just the "impossible" one, so I'm still not sure what you were *****ing about from the start.

The anthropic principal is a load of ****. Bringing it up carries about as much weight as claiming god created everything.

[MrFun]

Originally posted by Boris Godunov


There's still know way of making any reasonably accurate guess without knowing how common life is. What if we're the only inhabited planet in our galaxy? Or the nearest inhabited world is 10,000 light years away? With such a vast galaxy, it's quite possible that communication from another world could pass right by us without us noticing it.

Yes, that is all true, as well. In the future, there could also be frustration even after we have made some form of indirect contact -- it might only occur once and won't reoccur again for quite some time. And/or it would only be a unidirectional contact with no consistent, maintained two-way communication.

[MrFun]

Originally posted by Shi Huangdi
The Drake Equation is pretty much the standard formula used for this in determining the probability of Extraterrestials. A link to it is here: http://www.activemind.com/Mysterious..._equation.html

Bear in mind that is only for the Milky Way Galaxy. If you take into account the number of Stars in the universe and not in the galaxy, the number you start with is high enough that you end up with multiple planets with intelligent life. It makes sense, consdiering how many stars there are in the universe it would make sense that probabilistically you would end up with some other planets that support intelligent life. The problem is the Universe is so vast, we'll probably never get to communicate with them. Still it's interesting to think that somewhere in the vastness of space there is intelligent life.

thanks for this info


EDIT: And so far we have discovered something like 153 other planets outside of our solar system, right?

[Urban Ranger]

Originally posted by Drake Tungsten
The anthropic principal is a load of ****. Bringing it up carries about as much weight as claiming god created everything.

Really? Do explain why the Weak Anthropic Principle is bunk.

[MrFun]

I don't think the short Wikipedia article I provided was elaborate enough on the fallacies of the weak anthropic principle.

Someone could try googling for a more elaborate refutation.

[Drake Tungsten]

[/Boris mode]

Originally posted by Urban Ranger


Really? Do explain why the Weak Anthropic Principle is bunk.

Here's your homework for today, kiddo...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Argument_by_lack_of_imagination

[MrFun]

here is a link to a PDF format document


refutation of . . . . .

[Urban Ranger]

Originally posted by Drake Tungsten
Here's your homework for today, kiddo...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Argumen...of_imagination

Pray tell, how does Argument from Ignorance apply to the Weak Anthropic Principle?

[MrFun]

Well if you don't like that link UR, then check out any of the others provided in this thread.


Or google to your heart's content.

[Drake Tungsten]

MrFun

[MrFun]

Drake giving me a thumbs up

[Drake Tungsten]

If that's what you want, all you have to do is take down UR...