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(I implore people on this thread to not get sucked into standard left vs. right flame wars, and stick to discussing what is feasable not what is desirable, we get plenty of left vs. right flame wars on other threads)
What do you think a functional American Third Party woud look like? I can think of a few options:
1. Current Fringe Parties (Greens, Libertarians, Commies etc.) Get Smart:
The basic electoral strategies of most the existing third parties are unbelievably stupid. They seem to focus most of their engeries in bizarre quixotic Presidential campaigns that don't have a chance of hell of succeading and generally provide ****-all press coverage. Same goes for at the state level (the Greens slightly moreso than the Libertarians) it seems that most of the effort goes into Gubernatorial campaigns where the Third Parties don't have a chance in hell of winning (a trend that is exacerabed by campaign finance laws that link matching funds to Presidential and Gubernatorial election performance).
What the fringe parties need to do is target a handful of Congressional districts where they'd have the best shot and channel all their resources into performing competitively in that handful. This is definately doable, (especially since such districts would probably be so gerrymandered that any blather about "don't vote for the Greens/Libs or the Reps/Dems will win!" would be laughable) there's already a socialist congressman from Vermont and Ron Paul is a de facto Libertarian. This would be great for party building, and if the democrats and republicans become tightly enough matched than a small third party contingent could swing things and being able to so do would get the fringe parties the kind of coverage that they spend so much time drooling over.
2. The Second (or is it Third?) coming of the Dixiecrats:
The Dixiecrats shared with the fringe parties the stupid tendency of concentrate all their energies into unwinnable Presidential contests. A much smarter way of doing things would be to have the Blue Dog congressional caucus (on a side note, it really mystifies me why Dems whine so much about the conservatism of the DLC when the Blue Dogs are so much more conservative) officially divorce itself from the national Democratic Party and then remain officially neutral during all Presidential contests.
This could hypothetically work, a Dixiecrat Party could build back up its organization on the state level by severing contact with the national democratic party since that'd make it impossible for Republicans to link them with Democratic Congressional leadership or democratic Presidential candidates (neither of which tend to be terribly popular in the South). Only problem is that they'd probably get hurt among blacks, but I assume they could leave majority minority districts to the Democrats and try to remain competitive in the rest of the south.
3. NE Republicans Secede:
Well NE Republican moderates aren't as numerous or entrenched as the Blue Dogs but some of this has already happened with Jefford's defection. Also if the Republicans keep on going the way they've going all of New England will be a no-go zone for them (probably something that the Republican leadership is prepared to live with), so something like this might be the only way to keep politics in the NE (especially New England) competitive. I could really see a few other moderate Republican Senators following Jeffords in the next decade or so, and they could probably function effectively as a small regional party.
4. Blue Dogs + NE Republicans + Assorted other moderates:
Don't see this happening. Although they work together on somethings, the Blue Dogs and NE Republicans differ too much on other ones (I'm sure that such an amalgamated moderate party would have a hellish time writing compromise planks on such things as trade and social policy).
5. Buchananism Without the Crazyness:
In theory a party that espoused Buchanan's basic ideas with perhaps just a touch more of economic leftism to attract a broader spectrum of voters could do well. Imagine planks that went something like this: Isolationist nationalism, pro-life, protectionism, anti-immigration, pro-religion, anti-UN, in favor of "family friendly" large-scale economic handouts/tax cuts, moderately pro-Labor and prone to make a lot emotive bashings of Big Business and boosting of Main Street. There's a whole lot of people who'd prefer a party like that to either the Dems or the Reps.
However, I don't see any party along those lines ever getting organized. Not enough of those sort of people are as pissed off with the Republican Party as Buchanan is (at least not yet). And I don't think the Buchanan sorts (even the less crazy ones) would be willing to make the compromises necessary to obtain voters except by leeching off the Republicans.
6. An American Shinui
I could see this one really working since it appeals to a pretty big chunk of the American public that isn't really served by either the Dems or the Repubs (especially with the current Republican government's spending spree and general lack of fiscal discipline) and could really recruit people who now vote Dem, Repub or neither.
A platform would probably look something like: pragmatic foreign policy, separation of Church and State, socially liberal, sane immigration policies, strongly fiscally conservative and in favor of a general overall reform and simplification of the federal tax code, regulations and bureaucracy in a generally Liberal manner (in the European/original sense of the word). They could also possibly win some points by achieving some traditional lefty goals through radically less bureaucratic means (for example scrapping a lot of the Welfare State in favor of a vastly-expanded version of the Earned Income Tax Credit or something along those lines).
This would probably play pretty well among the Ming/JohnT/DanS wing of the Republicans, quite well among independents and I'm sure quite a few disaffeced Democrats would sign on as well. The closest thing we've had to this in the states was the Presidential campaign of John Bayard Anderson. Since that didn't do so well, I'm sure a Presidential bid on those kind of issues wouldn't be a good idea but I'm sure a party along these lines could pick up a good number of Congressional seats by providing some competition in districts where either the Dems or Repubs predominate and in states where this kind of thinking is already fairly popular (like Maine and some bits of the West).
What do the rest of you think?
What do you think a functional American Third Party woud look like? I can think of a few options:
1. Current Fringe Parties (Greens, Libertarians, Commies etc.) Get Smart:
The basic electoral strategies of most the existing third parties are unbelievably stupid. They seem to focus most of their engeries in bizarre quixotic Presidential campaigns that don't have a chance of hell of succeading and generally provide ****-all press coverage. Same goes for at the state level (the Greens slightly moreso than the Libertarians) it seems that most of the effort goes into Gubernatorial campaigns where the Third Parties don't have a chance in hell of winning (a trend that is exacerabed by campaign finance laws that link matching funds to Presidential and Gubernatorial election performance).
What the fringe parties need to do is target a handful of Congressional districts where they'd have the best shot and channel all their resources into performing competitively in that handful. This is definately doable, (especially since such districts would probably be so gerrymandered that any blather about "don't vote for the Greens/Libs or the Reps/Dems will win!" would be laughable) there's already a socialist congressman from Vermont and Ron Paul is a de facto Libertarian. This would be great for party building, and if the democrats and republicans become tightly enough matched than a small third party contingent could swing things and being able to so do would get the fringe parties the kind of coverage that they spend so much time drooling over.
2. The Second (or is it Third?) coming of the Dixiecrats:
The Dixiecrats shared with the fringe parties the stupid tendency of concentrate all their energies into unwinnable Presidential contests. A much smarter way of doing things would be to have the Blue Dog congressional caucus (on a side note, it really mystifies me why Dems whine so much about the conservatism of the DLC when the Blue Dogs are so much more conservative) officially divorce itself from the national Democratic Party and then remain officially neutral during all Presidential contests.
This could hypothetically work, a Dixiecrat Party could build back up its organization on the state level by severing contact with the national democratic party since that'd make it impossible for Republicans to link them with Democratic Congressional leadership or democratic Presidential candidates (neither of which tend to be terribly popular in the South). Only problem is that they'd probably get hurt among blacks, but I assume they could leave majority minority districts to the Democrats and try to remain competitive in the rest of the south.
3. NE Republicans Secede:
Well NE Republican moderates aren't as numerous or entrenched as the Blue Dogs but some of this has already happened with Jefford's defection. Also if the Republicans keep on going the way they've going all of New England will be a no-go zone for them (probably something that the Republican leadership is prepared to live with), so something like this might be the only way to keep politics in the NE (especially New England) competitive. I could really see a few other moderate Republican Senators following Jeffords in the next decade or so, and they could probably function effectively as a small regional party.
4. Blue Dogs + NE Republicans + Assorted other moderates:
Don't see this happening. Although they work together on somethings, the Blue Dogs and NE Republicans differ too much on other ones (I'm sure that such an amalgamated moderate party would have a hellish time writing compromise planks on such things as trade and social policy).
5. Buchananism Without the Crazyness:
In theory a party that espoused Buchanan's basic ideas with perhaps just a touch more of economic leftism to attract a broader spectrum of voters could do well. Imagine planks that went something like this: Isolationist nationalism, pro-life, protectionism, anti-immigration, pro-religion, anti-UN, in favor of "family friendly" large-scale economic handouts/tax cuts, moderately pro-Labor and prone to make a lot emotive bashings of Big Business and boosting of Main Street. There's a whole lot of people who'd prefer a party like that to either the Dems or the Reps.
However, I don't see any party along those lines ever getting organized. Not enough of those sort of people are as pissed off with the Republican Party as Buchanan is (at least not yet). And I don't think the Buchanan sorts (even the less crazy ones) would be willing to make the compromises necessary to obtain voters except by leeching off the Republicans.
6. An American Shinui
I could see this one really working since it appeals to a pretty big chunk of the American public that isn't really served by either the Dems or the Repubs (especially with the current Republican government's spending spree and general lack of fiscal discipline) and could really recruit people who now vote Dem, Repub or neither.
A platform would probably look something like: pragmatic foreign policy, separation of Church and State, socially liberal, sane immigration policies, strongly fiscally conservative and in favor of a general overall reform and simplification of the federal tax code, regulations and bureaucracy in a generally Liberal manner (in the European/original sense of the word). They could also possibly win some points by achieving some traditional lefty goals through radically less bureaucratic means (for example scrapping a lot of the Welfare State in favor of a vastly-expanded version of the Earned Income Tax Credit or something along those lines).
This would probably play pretty well among the Ming/JohnT/DanS wing of the Republicans, quite well among independents and I'm sure quite a few disaffeced Democrats would sign on as well. The closest thing we've had to this in the states was the Presidential campaign of John Bayard Anderson. Since that didn't do so well, I'm sure a Presidential bid on those kind of issues wouldn't be a good idea but I'm sure a party along these lines could pick up a good number of Congressional seats by providing some competition in districts where either the Dems or Repubs predominate and in states where this kind of thinking is already fairly popular (like Maine and some bits of the West).
What do the rest of you think?
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