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Let the good times roll -- 248,000 new jobs

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  • Let the good times roll -- 248,000 new jobs

    Good news. 262,000 new non-farm jobs were announced for February and downward revision of 14,000 was made for January's job numbers, leaving a net +248,000 new jobs announced. The economy went completely into expansion in January (net jobs from the last peak of February '01 to January '05 finally were positive).

    The underlying components of this job growth are healthy. Over 90% of the new jobs are in the private sector. Another couple of months of this and the private sector can be said to finally be completely in expansion mode.



    US February job growth tops expectations
    By Christopher Swann in Washington and wires
    Published: March 4 2005 13:46 | Last updated: March 4 2005 13:46

    US jobs imageThe US created 262,000 jobs in February, the biggest gain in four months, surpassing expectations and reinforcing confidence in the sustainability of economic growth.
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    Economists have become accustomed to seeing the payroll figures fall short of their expectations. On Friday, however, they were confronted with the novel situation of having underestimated job growth. The average forecast was for an increase of 218,000.

    There was a slight downward revision to job growth in January which was lowered by 14,000 to 132,000. But economists said the figures reduced the threat of an abrupt slowdown in consumer spending.

    Nevertheless, a surge of new workers onto the market pushed the unemployment rate up from 5.2 per cent to 5.4 per cent.

    There are also no signs yet that the improving market is helping boost the bargaining position of workers. Average hourly earnings was unchanged over the month.

    The number of people unemployed for more than 27 weeks - the amount of time Americans are entitled to Federal jobless benefits - was unchanged at 1.6m - a fifth of the total unemployed.

    With the economy no longer being boosted by mortgage refinancing and tax rebates, employment and wage growth will be crucial in determining the pace of consumer spending growth.

    A survey released on Friday showed consumer sentiment fell more than expected in the month, Reuters reported. The University of Michigan’s consumer confidence index for February fell to 94.1 from January’s 95.5, according to Reuters’ sources who saw the subscription-only report.

    Analysts had expected expected a figure of 95.45.

    Most economists assume job growth needs to achieve an average of about 150,000 a month in order to absorb new workers entering the market.

    Shares rose in early trade on Friday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 74 points at 10,906 and the Nasdaq rose 10 points to 2,068.
    I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891

  • #2
    Nice try, Dan. But too bad unemployment rose.

    Dollar Declines Against Euro; U.S. Unemployment Rate Increases

    March 4 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar fell for the first time in a week after a government report showed the U.S. unemployment rate rose last month and fewer people were hired in January than initially reported.

    Speculation the economy would add as many as 300,000 jobs overshadowed the Labor Department report that employers hired 262,000 new workers, the most since October and above the median forecast of economists polled by Bloomberg.

    ``The numbers were not strong enough to support dollar bulls' wildest desires,'' said Jason Bonanca, a currency strategist at Credit Suisse First Boston in New York. ``We are still improving and 262,000 is a good number, but details in the report were not so supportive.''

    Against the euro, the dollar weakened to $1.3219 at 10:04 a.m. in New York from $1.3110 late yesterday, according to electronic currency-dealing system EBS. Versus the yen, the dollar declined to 104.63, from 105.29. The dollar is still up 0.3 percent this week against the euro and is down 0.6 percent versus the yen, the third straight week of losses.

    Economists predicted U.S. employers created 225,000 jobs last month, according to the median of 70 forecasts in a Bloomberg survey. The Labor Department said today the U.S. jobless rate rose to 5.4 percent in February, from 5.2 percent in January, when employers hired 132,000 workers. The initial estimate for job growth in January was 146,000.

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    • #3
      WHERE'S MINE!
      Christianity: The belief that a cosmic Jewish Zombie who was his own father can make you live forever if you symbolically eat his flesh and telepathically tell him you accept him as your master, so he can remove an evil force from your soul that is present in humanity because a rib-woman was convinced by a talking snake to eat from a magical tree...

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      • #4
        Unemployment rose because people are coming back into the job market. This is good news, not bad news.
        I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891

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        • #5
          So in fact unemployment stayed the same, but people have been shuffled between the various categories they have these days to make the unemployment figures look better.

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by DanS
            Unemployment rose because people are coming back into the job market. This is good news, not bad news.
            So higher unemployment is good news?

            You should work for the President.

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by JimmyCracksCorn
              You should work for the President.
              Doesn't he?
              Christianity: The belief that a cosmic Jewish Zombie who was his own father can make you live forever if you symbolically eat his flesh and telepathically tell him you accept him as your master, so he can remove an evil force from your soul that is present in humanity because a rib-woman was convinced by a talking snake to eat from a magical tree...

              Comment


              • #8
                So higher unemployment is good news?
                In this case, yes. Last month, the unemployment rate went down, but you didn't hear me say that it was good news, because it was due mainly to people leaving the work force.

                Basically, I don't follow the unemployment rate.
                I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891

                Comment


                • #9
                  Originally posted by DanS


                  In this case, yes.
                  I'll tell you, it doesn't seem like anyone else is reacting to favorably to this. And honestly, I'd love for the US economy to improve dramtically overnight. I have quite a bit in US dollar savings and the better the economy does the more my money is worth, but I just don't see it.

                  Here's some news from the currency markets. They don't seem to think this is very good news:

                  Canadian Forex Midday: C$ Strengthens



                  Winnipeg, MB, Mar 04, 2005 (Resource News International via COMTEX) -- The Canadian dollar was stronger at midday Friday, as US jobs data failed to live up to large pre-report expectations. The broad based weakness in the US dollar helped send the Canadian currency higher, said analysts.

                  The Canadian dollar was quoted at 81.27 US cents (C$1.2304) at 1149 CT (1749 GMT), which compares with 81.10 US cents (C$1.2330) early in the session, and Thursday's North American closing level of 80.40 US cents (C$1.2438).

                  The US economy created 262,000 jobs in February, which was above average estimates calling for a non-farm jobs increase of 220,000. However, the market had started to anticipate larger than consensus gains in recent days, with some calling for a figure above 300,000. With the numbers coming in below the high expectations, the US dollar weakened in the international markets.

                  Meanwhile, the US unemployment rate rose to 5.4%, from 5.2% in January. Economists had expected the rate to hold steady.

                  A sharp increase in Canada's Ivey Purchasing Managers' index also provided support to the Canadian dollar. The index was pegged at 63.4 for February, which compares to 50.0 in January. A number above 50.0 indicates an expansion of purchasing activity.

                  Canadian employment and trade data will be released next week, Friday.

                  The Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX) was higher at midday Friday, up 76.60 points at 1149 CT (1749 GMT).
                  Futures and commodity market news. Breaking financial news is brought to you Courtesy of TradingCharts (TFC Commodity Charts). News headlines from around the world including ...

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                  • #10
                    Official unemployment numbers are fuzzy figures because they only count those actively seeking work. In this case, unemployment rose because unemployed people who had previously given up on finding work became encouraged and began to actively seek work again. A more real tabulation of the unemployed that counts all unemployed people (without regard to whether or not they are actively seeking work) would have showed a decrease.
                    “It is no use trying to 'see through' first principles. If you see through everything, then everything is transparent. But a wholly transparent world is an invisible world. To 'see through' all things is the same as not to see.”

                    ― C.S. Lewis, The Abolition of Man

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                    • #11
                      Originally posted by chegitz guevara


                      Doesn't he?
                      Originally posted by DanS


                      Basically, I don't follow the unemployment rate.
                      I'm beginning to agree with you, Che.

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                      • #12
                        the "official" uneployment numbers are a bunch of hogwash because they conveniently ignore people who are unemployed and give up looking.

                        Dan, you and your fellow Neo-liberals need to get a brain.

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                        • #13
                          A more real tabulation of the unemployed that counts all unemployed people (without regard to whether or not they are actively seeking work) would have showed a decrease.
                          Bingo.

                          the "official" uneployment numbers are a bunch of hogwash because they conveniently ignore people who are unemployed and give up looking.
                          I agree with this, in most part (other than to say that the numbers aren't precisely hogwash, but in the short term have little meaning). Direct your trash talk at somebody else. Thanks.
                          I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by pchang
                            Official unemployment numbers are fuzzy figures because they only count those actively seeking work. In this case, unemployment rose because unemployed people who had previously given up on finding work became encouraged and began to actively seek work again. A more real tabulation of the unemployed that counts all unemployed people (without regard to whether or not they are actively seeking work) would have showed a decrease.
                            So you're saying it doesn't count because we didn't know these people were jobless before?

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Are you being purposely obtuse?
                              “It is no use trying to 'see through' first principles. If you see through everything, then everything is transparent. But a wholly transparent world is an invisible world. To 'see through' all things is the same as not to see.”

                              ― C.S. Lewis, The Abolition of Man

                              Comment

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