I'm glad to see no-one's mentioned the 'O' word.
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Lebanese "Government" and George Bush
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Originally posted by Sandman
I'm glad to see no-one's mentioned the 'O' word.Try http://wordforge.net/index.php for discussion and debate.
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I think Berzerker is right.
The small changes in the middle east are working. Even if it is by small steps that will have little actual value (such as Egypt) - the advancements create a huge change in public opinion.
Most importantly - they give people hope of freeing themselves from their opressors - usually their own rulers, or rulers of other states.
While Mubarak's step in Egypt is not the pinnacle of democracy - it means something. It means that even he felt that he can not go on holding a regime by his own - he had to do something to make his regime at least appear more democratic. What is important is the pressure he felt and the public opinion that drives this.
Lets be frank - in the PA, could there be any possible outcome different from what has become? Could a non-Fatah candidate win and get away with it? No. The results would have been tinkered with even more.
But what is important here is that the middle eastern public realises that he has the power to rise up - that democratic reform is both achievable and will not "destroy your nation" and does not represent "the western diabolical morals".
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Originally posted by Moral Hazard
I don't think 3 has much to do with Bush. The others I think do; as does Egypt and Saudi Arabia's minor reforms. Increased anti-americanism seems to out weigh these gains. In fact a truly democratic Egypt or Saudi Arabia would clearly be islamist and probably our enemies.He's got the Midas touch.
But he touched it too much!
Hey Goldmember, Hey Goldmember!
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While Mubarak's step in Egypt is not the pinnacle of democracy - it means something. It means that even he felt that he can not go on holding a regime by his own - he had to do something to make his regime at least appear more democratic. What is important is the pressure he felt and the public opinion that drives this.
It's far more reasonable to say that this pressure was created by US actions in the ME being a boon to Islamist causes like the Muslim Brotherhood (being the primary opposition to Mubarak), than being created by the spirit of Iraqi democracy or any such nonsense.
And if democratic pressure can only force such a nominal change in the Egyptian system, that doesn't bode well for the strength of said democratic pressure.
Lets be frank - in the PA, could there be any possible outcome different from what has become? Could a non-Fatah candidate win and get away with it? No. The results would have been tinkered with even more.
Err.. Hamas devastated Fatah in the Gaza elections (which they didn't boycott):
In elections held in 10 districts of Gaza this week, Hamas won at least 75 seats out of 118 seats.
The ruling Fatah faction of Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas won at least 26 seats. .
"Beware of the man who works hard to learn something, learns it, and finds himself no wiser than before. He is full of murderous resentment of people who are ignorant without having come by their ignorance the hard way. "
-Bokonon
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No. I personally doubt that Assad did it, but probably was another part of the Syrian gov't. Assad doesn't seem to have full control over his gov't."Beware of the man who works hard to learn something, learns it, and finds himself no wiser than before. He is full of murderous resentment of people who are ignorant without having come by their ignorance the hard way. "
-Bokonon
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Why? At this point, it doesn't really matter who actually did it."Beware of the man who works hard to learn something, learns it, and finds himself no wiser than before. He is full of murderous resentment of people who are ignorant without having come by their ignorance the hard way. "
-Bokonon
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Err.. Hamas devastated Fatah in the Gaza elections (which they didn't boycott):
I was talking about Presidential elections - which are way too important so as not to be rigged in Fatah's favor.
Voting to parliament or for president is a different story, because people do consider the political effect of their votes. A Hamas elected president will have to deal with Israel and America. A Hamas elected parliament member will signify a support for a religious country, which is against any settlement with Israel. A Hamas president will setback Palestinian hopes for a state by alot.
The public is aware and polls never gave Hamas figures the same supprot Fatah figures had. Not to mention the Palestinian public regularly shows his support for some peace settlement with Israel, and is probably the most secular arab public there is.
All in all - I don't naturally expect Hamas to take beyond 20-30% in an election (where Fatah will take ~50%). And the Parliamentary elections are not likely to go about unrigged.
In any case - the local elections (their first step, out of 3) are not truly reflective of Hamas's actual power, nor do they fortell its future power when they probably participate in Parliamentary elections this July.
Why?
Because local elections is mainly about 2 things: Tribes (Hamoula) and personal gain. Many of the lists running were combined of Fatah and Hamas members together, simply because they belonged to the same tribe. People went out to vote mostly according to their tribal characterestic. Fatah even managed to make some deals with local tribes to reverse part of the victories in areas in the West Bank.
As for personal gain - Fatah local government is corrupt and inept, while Hamas Daawa foundation is well working and very well published. Obviously people though - "hey, if we vote for the non-corrupt guys, we'll surely get better. Heck - can't get any worse".
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