Lebanese "Government" and George Bush

[Berzerker]

Shall we run down George Bush's victories in the war on terror?

1) The removal of the Taliban, enter Afghan democracy
2) The removal of Saddam, enter democracy in Iraq
3) Libya modifies behavior
4) Syrian backed regime in Lebanon falls after assassination of former PM.

As a critic of the Iraqi invasion for another reason, I have to give the Bush doctrine

I suspect this will lead to democracy in Iran in time as "moderates" are emboldened by events all around them...

Even Jon Stewart is expressing amazement at recent events...

[Tassadar500]

We don't know if Afghanistan, or Iraq will actually become "democracies," and the only reason Libya did what it did, was for the benefits. The Syrian backed regime falling had nothing to do with Bush.

[KrazyHorse]

#1 and 2 were obvious consequences

3 and 4 had little if anything to do with the US

[Drake Tungsten]

Don't forget Mubarak promising to make democratic reforms in Egypt in response to recent US pressure. Or municipal elections in Saudi Arabia. Or moves toward democracy in Kuwait and Bahrain. Or the improved relations between the Israelis and the Palestinians. Things are definitely changing in the Middle East; hopefully it sticks.

[Ted Striker]

The Lebanese got pissed off because the Syrians assassinated their former Prime Minister, and now he is a martyr.

They did it to themselves. Bush had nothing to do with it.

[Ted Striker]

Originally posted by Drake Tungsten
Or the improved relations between the Israelis and the Palestinians. Things are definitely changing in the Middle East; hopefully it sticks.

After the bombing, Sharon spoke by phone with Rice and told her that "without active steps by the Palestinians, there will be no transition towards implementing the first stage of the road map," according to a statement from his office.

http://www.cnn.com/2005/WORLD/meast/03/01/syria.attack/index.html

[Moral Hazard]

I don't think 3 has much to do with Bush. The others I think do; as does Egypt and Saudi Arabia's minor reforms. Increased anti-americanism seems to out weigh these gains. In fact a truly democratic Egypt or Saudi Arabia would clearly be islamist and probably our enemies.

[Berzerker]

Why all the negative vibes, Moriarty?

3 and 4 had little if anything to do with the US

That isn't what Khaddafi said in an interview with Italian press. The invasion of Iraq was why he changed course after years of obfusacating. And yes, I believe the Lebanese people did react in part to current events. They've been under Syria's thumb for decades and now they stood up and said "no more". Sure, the catalyst was the PMs assassination, but had the tide not changed in the ME I doubt they'd really stick their necks out and tell Syria to shove it.

[Drake Tungsten]

Why all the negative vibes, Moriarty?

Negative waves...

[Ogie Oglethorpe]

Originally posted by Berzerker
Why all the negative vibes, Moriarty?

Kellys Heros

[Berzerker]

One of my favorite movies.

[Drake Tungsten]

Oddball is awesome...

[Dinner]

My thread on this was better.

[Berzerker]

My thread on this was better.

But my daddy can beat up your daddy

Oddball is awesome...

Donald Sutherland deserved an oscar

[Ramo]

I've addressed most of this in the other thread, so I'll go and comment on (3) and (4):

(3) has to do with Bush, but not the "Bush doctrine." It was old-fashioned diplomacy using the carrot of lifting sanctions, with negotiations going back to the Clinton era. It also means no real pressure for greater liberty and democracy in Libya.

(4) has little to do with Bush. It has far more to do with the internal Syrian-Lebanese politics. Israel left Lebanon in 2000, reducing the justification for a Syrian occupation. The Maronites, though initially welcoming the Syrian presence (the Syrians saved their fascist asses from the PLO rebels), seemed to get tired of it about this time. The Druze, who strongly backed the PLO and have their own martyr against the Syrians, always hated the Syrian occupation. The Syrians decided to interfere with the Lebanese Constitution and extend the President's term, pissing off everyone. And now they went and assassinated the popular former PM Harimi, a Sunni, really pissing off the Sunnis. Basically, everyone got really pissed off except Hezbollah. And Assad the Younger doesn't have the iron grip of his dad. Anyways, it was due to total incompetence, but that doesn't mean that it was due to Bush for a change.

And it's not like it's all over; there are still pro-Syrian elements in Lebanese politics, Lahoud has not resigned yet, and the Lebanese aren't terribly united themselves. There's a reason why the state was mired in perpetual civil war.