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Originally posted by Last Conformist
I think China does have the potential to become a global power, tho I'll agree that it's unlikely to achieve US-style global hegemony. The likelihood of something happening doesn't figure in telling whether it happening would be bad, however.
What I do think is likely is China becoming a more important global player than the EU bloc, which I don't particularly like.
Originally posted by Agathon
I thought I made it clear that I didn't see China becoming another US. They will be a regional power at most.
I'm assuming that the US is a bully not because they're exceptionally evil, but because they can get away with it. Given the historical record of hegemonic powers, America throwing its weight around does not seem exceptional. Why should one not fear China following in the same footsteps if they rise to similar status?
I thought I made it clear that I didn't see China becoming another US. They will be a regional power at most.
I think China does have the potential to become a global power, tho I'll agree that it's unlikely to achieve US-style global hegemony. The likelihood of something happening doesn't figure in telling whether it happening would be bad, however.
What I do think is likely is China becoming a more important global player than the EU bloc, which I don't particularly like.
That the PRC isn't acting like the US yet is hardly surprising; they can't.
Perhaps. But will they ever? I don't think they will get that powerful. At most, they will be able to prevent countries like the US getting their way all the time. I think that's a good thing. Having one country with complete military dominance means that there are no or few checks on its ambitions.
I think I've made clear I'm not too fond of US hegemony.
China being able to keep US out of its neck of the woods would clearly be good for China, and bad for the US (at least as perceived by the current American elite, and it's they who decide how America reacts to developments). For everyone else, it depends on how China decides to redecorate the place.
I don't really get the trade argument. The US is heavily dependent on foreign trade too; if their trade ties to Europe and China were severed, the results wouldn't be pretty at all. Somehow that doesn't seem to stop them.
It would if it came to the crunch. Neither China or Europe were prepared to go that far over Iraq, even though they didn't like the idea.
The US can saber rattle against China all it likes, but they can't really do that much against China either. This is one of the benefits of transnational capitalism, it makes wars much more expensive. It also means that elites who depend on transnational capitalism are going to take a much dimmer view of petty international disputes.
The age of great power politics is pretty much over IMHO. People no longer have the appetite for war that they once did, and capital has more say than parochial concerns. We and the Chinese share the common aim of making ourselves richer by trading with each other. That should take precedence over petty power politics.
I know this sounds funny coming from a commie like me, but that's my view.
I agree that major wars seem to've gone out of fashion. But I do not see any shortage of political bones of contention, and there does not seem to be any reason to believe they won't continue to be decided by cheney comparison rather than arbitration or whatever.
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