Feeding the Dragon, Hurting the Alliance

[Last Conformist]

LOTM wrote
In the short run the only possible alternative superpowers are the EU, Russia, and China. I think we share a common interest in Russia not reemerging as a superpower, esp if that means Russia reasserting dominance over the "former Soviet space".

Agreed, but I don't think that's much of a risk.

What the rise of China means for Europe is what we're debating.

I don't think that's much of mystery. Economic opportunities, but further decline in terms of political weight. If it weren't for the risk of a confrontation over Taiwan, I'd be all for selling the Chinese all the guns they'd pay for; now I'm quite ambivalent.

What the unification of Europe means to the US depends on what that Europe intends to do. I, personally, am less pessimistic than most on the right in the US about Europe, and think European power is a net gain for the US. Doesnt mean we wont disagree on a lot.

There are two sides to this; i) a more powerful Europe would make a more effective ally, and ii) a more powerful Europe might become a rival. If I were an American policymaker, I'd take a look at demographic trends and populat attitudes to aspiring to superpowerhood in Europe, and conclude (ii) isn't much of a worry.

well you see Ive never thought the Bush admin really intended to follow up Iraq with more full scale invasions, at least not in the kinds of circumstances that the Iraq war took place under, which would set us apart from our allies, in quite that way. I think actions we can take together could make wars on those countries unnecessary.

Well, accepting that assumption, I'd say friendlier trans-Atlantic relations are bad news for Syria and Iran, and pretty much irrelevant for NK.

[Agathon]

Ah, I see. Because they aren't rattling their sabres at you it isn't important. By "sorting itself out" you mean, "Hey, what's another few million people falling under the thumb of the mainland Chinese government? Maybe they'll like it better."

They will eventually.

At least half a million former residents of Taiwan have moved to Shanghai. Taiwanese businesses are now the biggest investors in China. Add to that that the Taiwanese are culturally Chinese and you can see where it is going.

Eventually as China becomes a freer society the reasons for having an independent Taiwan will become less and less pressing.

Why are you ragging on the Chinese so much? They've done miraculously well in the last 15 years. China is a much better place than it was and it is becoming a much wealthier society.

I don't agree with the way the Tiananmen protest was suppressed (killing people was definitely wrong), but I think it would have been a disaster for China if the protests had succeeded. If they had, China would most likely be like Russia is now. The standard of living in Russia nosedived after the fall of communism because they tried to institute a market economy and democratic politics right off the bat. The result was rampant criminality.

The Chinese on the other hand have taken the softly softly approach and it is working. Of course it will never be quick enough for some people or slow enough for others, but the CCP is slowly making China a better place to live for its citizens. As China grows, expect more liberalization. The Americans are right on one point, increasing economic liberalization will eventually cause political liberalization (a very Marxist thing to say, to be sure).

Why should we all try to isolate China? Why not attempt to engage with them and treat them as partners, rather than as the yellow peril. China has had a bad history with the west, almost all of it our fault, so we shouldn't blame them for being suspicious and wanting to build up their military somewhat.

"Tibet's f***ed anyway, so they're not worth worrying about." Another shining example of Aggy's leftie compassion.

That is not what I said.

The whole Tibet thing was unfortunate, but inevitable. This is what happens when you have a very weak state in a strategically important location right between two enemies (China and India) If China hadn't taken Tibet, India would have. I would feel the same way if India had invaded Tibet.

I agree that it would be better if Tibet were independent, but realpolitik is a *****. I only hope that tensions between India and China subside to nought - then there would be no reason not to grant Tibet autonomy.

[Last Conformist]

Why should we all try to isolate China? Why not attempt to engage with them and treat them as partners, rather than as the yellow peril.

Because the Chinese are people much like you and me.

[BeBMan]

The question remains if we are not already acting as if we are in a cold war with China when we're trying to isolate them. Don't know if this is a wise move....

[Agathon]

Lord help us!!

If China becomes more powerful, then the Chinese will start coming here, establishing opium dens, and pimping out white women!!!

Now where have I heard that before?

[Agathon]

Because the Chinese are people much like you and me.

yep

some of them are hittable too.

[Last Conformist]

Originally posted by Agathon


yep

"Yep"? I say we should treat China as the yellow peril, and you say "yep"?

Well, there goes the theory that nobody ever changes hir/her opinion due to 'Poly debates.

[Agathon]

"Yep"? I say we should treat China as the yellow peril, and you say "yep"?

I misunderstood you.

Was that supposed to be funny?

[Last Conformist]

No.

[Agathon]

Why do you want to isolate China then?

[Last Conformist]

I've explained earlier in this thread why I don't like China to rise. Basically, it's better to be #2 than #3. Once capable of bullying us, they, being much like westerners, will bully us.

[Spiffor]

Why do you want to isolate China then?

What happened when Rome rose to prominence?
What happened when Mongolia rose to prominence?
What happened when England rose to prominence?
What happened when Germany rose to prominence?

I can understand why someone would want to never see any country rising to prominence ever again. Though I don't think a weapon ban will change anything but the timeframe in which it would happen.

[Last Conformist]

Originally posted by Spiffor
I can understand why someone would want to never see any country rising to prominence ever again. Though I don't think a weapon ban will change anything but the timeframe in which it would happen.

Well, since China does, on the whole, seem to be getting nicer, postponing its more-or-less inevitable rise seems like a good idea.

[Spiffor]

True dat.

[lord of the mark]

Originally posted by BeBro
The question remains if we are not already acting as if we are in a cold war with China when we're trying to isolate them. Don't know if this is a wise move....

Is refusing to sell weapons to China isolating them? IIUC the EU limits weapons sales to Israel, and to Taiwan. Would you say youve tried to isolate Israel or Taiwan, or to wage a cold war on them?