Feeding the Dragon, Hurting the Alliance

[Dinner]

Russia and the Europeans have a big problem in the arms market. Most people who can get advanced American weapons would rather buy those weapons then anything else since the US makes them in higher volume so the per unit price is lower then the competetion. That only leaves China, Iran, North Korea, and Cuba who can't buy American weapons because the US won't sell to them along with the fighter plane & naval markets in Latin America. The congress slapped advanced weapons export controls on atin America in the 1970's to weaken dictatorships and stop regional arms races so more money would be spent on social development.

The dictatorships in Latin America are gone and now the US arms makers are lobbying to have the export controls lifted. That means one of the biggest export markets for European arms is going to dry up (the US export controls didn't stop the dictators from buying weapons it just made them buy EU or Russian weapons instead of American) and they'd like to find a replacement before that happens. China is really the only option for them since the Russians already own North Korea, Iran, and India.

Sure, there are some small fries in Africa but those guys don't have the big bucks to spend on new air craft, ships, or missiles. If they want to keep their arms industries humming then they need China.

[GePap]

OMG!!! The Europeans might make a decision based on market economics! That's just wrong!!!!

As for the notion that the Chinese might do anything threatening to Europe- what a load of magnificent crap. What will China do? Roll accross all of Asia and invade? Mount some imaginary naval blockade? What? anyone???

The US has a power position in the Pacific that it wants to maintain, period. The only state that within the next 50 years might be a challenge is China, so right-wingers get in a huff at anything that might tip the balance towards China. The thing is, China will make advanced weapons at some point anyways, and European sales will not likely do much to tip any balance, since the real problem for China is lack of a blue water navy.

So what is the Chinese buy better European choppers? Unless the US is planning some new land war in Asia, those would hardly matter.

[Pekka]

Oerdin, that's something I didn't think of.. makes sense to me.

[GePap]

I just reade the crap OP. and what single things stands out: why should the Europeans give a **** about US hegemony over the Pacific? Its not liek the US has been a worthwhile stewrd of democracy in the region at all until only the last few years, and as Dashi's article in the other thread shows, the US is already having its hegemony completely undermined and broken by the growing Chinese economy and our making it harder for others to travel to the US. China does not need weapons to break "US hegemony, its already doing so".

As for the notion that China has no external threats, so why should they buy weapons- what external threat does the US actually have that justifies a 400+ billion dollar military budget? NK? Iran? AQ? None of those threats comes anywhere near close to justifying that kind of military spending, or thinking up of new wepaons syetms, new nukes, whatever. China has every right, and perhaps even a duty, to ensure it has a top nothc military, just as we soend so much to ensure that. Why should the Chinese accept the US position? Cause we are so nice aqnd fluffy and lovable and only do whats best for everyone else?!

That is the underlying notion at the root of this moronic piece- that everyone out there in the world should accept the current system of US military domination just because we are the nices, best, most lovable people ever and everyone should see that, and anyone who does not must be bad! At least the Europeans when they controlled the world were not so deluded as to think that people should gladly submit to the world system they imposed even if they did think themselves better than everyone else.

[Dinner]

The Japanese actually spend far more then the Chinese on defense and they've begun construction of a new nuclear powered aircraft carrier. The Japanese have been scared by North Korea's missile tests which flew over their islands and by the modernizing of China's military (which truthfully badly needed to be modernized since most of their ships and planes were 1960's vintage or even Korean war vintage).

The modernization of the PLA is going to continue reguardless and we're just going to have to accept a balance of power instead of total superiority. We can still rely on Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Thailand as rock solid allies and if we work closer (something Bush isn't very good at) with Russia, India, and Indonesia (who is a traditional US ally, military client state, and old SEATO member) then we can hem the Chinese in. The goal is to let their military grow but to maintain such a strong defensive alliance that they don't feel bold enough to go on military adventures.

[Last Conformist]

Originally posted by GePap
As for the notion that the Chinese might do anything threatening to Europe- what a load of magnificent crap. What will China do? Roll accross all of Asia and invade? Mount some imaginary naval blockade? What? anyone???

Well, there's alot of indirect harm they could do. Like wrecking Taiwan's electronics industry.

[GePap]

Originally posted by Last Conformist

Well, there's alot of indirect harm they could do. Like wrecking Taiwan's electronics industry.

Which would hur them as well- more likely thought, Taiwans electronics indsutry will become China's electronic industry as Taiwanese manufacturers move factories to China to take advantage of the markets, as they are already doing.

[Imran Siddiqui]

Europe is going to sell arms to China... and this is a big deal because?

[GePap]

Originally posted by Oerdin

The modernization of the PLA is going to continue reguardless and we're just going to have to accept a balance of power instead of total superiority. We can still rely on Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Thailand as rock solid allies and if we work closer (something Bush isn't very good at) with Russia, India, and Indonesia (who is a traditional US ally, military client state, and old SEATO member) then we can hem the Chinese in. The goal is to let their military grow but to maintain such a strong defensive alliance that they don't feel bold enough to go on military adventures.

Oh, we can count on Japan and Taiwan, certainly, but I am not so sure about the others. China is already becoming the main trading partner of all these nations, and more and more they look to China, not the US, as Dashi's article shows. I think Vietnam and the Phillipinnes would both be more likely US allies on the China issue because of their competing territorial claims in the South China Sea.

[GePap]

Originally posted by Imran Siddiqui
Europe is going to sell arms to China... and this is a big deal because?

The Chinese are evil god-hating commies who plan to swallow the freedom loving people of Taiwan and then nuke LA as their french made tanks roll unto Washington to enslave us all under a flag of Mao!!!

Didn't you hear?

[Last Conformist]

China is becoming Russia's main trading partner? That doesn't sound quite right ...

[Imran Siddiqui]

Originally posted by GePap
The Chinese are evil god-hating commies who plan to swallow the freedom loving people of Taiwan and then nuke LA as their french made tanks roll unto Washington to enslave us all under a flag of Mao!!!

Didn't you hear?

Oops... guess I missed the memo.

[GePap]

Originally posted by Last Conformist
China is becoming Russia's main trading partner? That doesn't sound quite right ...

N, they aren't the mina traidng partner of Russia or India, thoguth those two states are more likely not to just accept some US lead grand coolition.

[Dinner]

Originally posted by Last Conformist

Well, there's alot of indirect harm they could do. Like wrecking Taiwan's electronics industry.

China actually has a number of outstanding territorial disputes. Taiwan is the biggest but they still haven't agreed with Vietnam over the border, India and China have fought border wars over sections of Kashmire (1/4 is Chinese occupied), Burma/China have border disputes, Russia and China still haven't agreed to a final border in the Amur river area, and about a half dozen states all Claim the Spraitleys. So there are potential conflicts which could case wars.

Hopefully, we can make trade and cooperation seem like a better choice especially if we maintain strong defensive allainces without looking like we want to pick a fight.

[Drake Tungsten]

I really should be concerned about all the ignorance in this thread, but **** it. A destablized East Asia does nothing but improve my job prospects, so bring it on! Woot!

The Japanese actually spend far more then the Chinese on defense

That's not true any longer.

China actually has a number of outstanding territorial disputes. Taiwan is the biggest but they still haven't agreed with Vietnam over the border, India and China have fought border wars over sections of Kashmire (1/4 is Chinese occupied), Burma/China have border disputes, Russia and China still haven't agreed to a final border in the Amur river area, and about a half dozen states all Claim the Spraitleys. So there are potential conflicts which could case wars.

There's also a dispute with Japan over the Senkaku (Diaoyu) Islands.

Here's a recent article on the dispute over the islands: Japan-China tensions rise over tiny islands