Iraqi election results

[Dinner]

Originally posted by chegitz guevara
I wanna know how the commies did. I know we got at least 26%, since both Kurdish parties are communist.

No, neither the KDP or the PUK are communist as both seek private ownership of land, factories, and resources. They are, however, socialist and nationalist at the same time and there platform consists of free public education through University level, nationwide health insurence, return of homes Saddam's government confiscated from Kurds, small business loans to jump start the economy, etc...

While in Iraq Kurdistan I often worked with the various political parties through their offices in Kirkuk including the Kurdish Communist party which had a small following in the area. Upwards of 90% of the population are militantly devoted to the PDK or PUK (the PUK is a splinter group of the KDP formed in 1975 after a failed uprising against Saddam) with around 20 other parties all chasing the remaining 10%.

[Ramo]

From Cole:

United Iraqi Alliance (Shiite): 133 seats
Kurdish Alliance: 71
Iraqiya (Allawi = Secular Shiites) 38
Iraqiyyun (al-Yawir= Sunni Arabs) 5
Turkmen Front of Iraq 3
Cadres and the Chosen (Sadrist Shiites) 3
People's Union (Communist) 3
Kurdish Islamic Coalition 2
Organization of Islamic Action (Shiite) 2
Democratic National Alliance (Abd Faisal Ahmad) 1
National Mesopotamian List (Christian) 1
Welfare and Liberation Bloc (Mash'an al-Juburi, Sunni) 1
Caucus for Iraqi National Unity (Nahru Muhammad Abdul Karim, Sunni) 1
Independent Democrats (Adnan Pachachi, Sunni) 1
Iraqi Islamic Party (Muhsin Abdul Hamid, Sunni; had withdrawn) 1
Islamic Dawa Movement (splinter of Dawa, headed by Adil Majid) 1
Iraqi National Caucus (Husain Muhammad Abdullah) 1
Constitutional Monarchy Movement (Sharif Ali b. Husain) 1
Royal Iraqi Hashimi Caucus (Sharif Ma'mul al-Naysan) 1
National Democratic Alliance (Malik Duhan al-Hasan) 1
Democratic Iraqi Caucus (Ahmad Jabir Abdullah) 1
National Front for Iraqi Unity 1

Since a few percent of the votes went to small parties too insignificant to be represented, these seats will be reapportioned to the other parties, so the UIA may end up with 140/275 seats (50.5%) of the national assembly.

http://www.afp.com/english/newsml/stories/050213210533.wx8x3x83.html

Note that six of the non-UIA seats are definitely Shia Islamist (the Cadres and the Chosen, the Organization of Islamic Action, and the Islamic Da'wa Movement).

So, the UIA will be able to push most of what they want through the national assembly, though won't be able to dictate the PM, Pres, or Constitution.

[Agathon]

That list of parties sounds quite Pythonesque.

[Tassadar500]

What disturbs me is that people could actually vote for someone named Husain.

[Ramo]

Actually, the United Iraqi Alliance is a coalition of religious and secular Shiites.

No, it's generally Islamist, with a handful of guys who could really be considered secular (i.e. Chalabi). It's dominated by two Islamist parties, SCIRI and Da'wa.

That list of parties sounds quite Pythonesque.

The scary thing is that those aren't parties, just party lists. The naming system gets a lot worse than that.

[Bosh]

Originally posted by Ramo

Actually, the United Iraqi Alliance is a coalition of religious and secular Shiites.

No, it's generally Islamist, with a handful of guys who could really be considered secular (i.e. Chalabi). It's dominated by two Islamist parties, SCIRI and Da'wa.

That list of parties sounds quite Pythonesque.

The scary thing is that those aren't parties, just party lists. The naming system gets a lot worse than that.

Right, a lot of those lists are coalitions of parties (the Kurd list is 50/50 between two parties and the UIA is a big grab bag but mostly the Islamis SCIRI and Da'wa like Ramo said).

[Ramo]

Don't want to bother with links (there was a WaPo article about Provincial results that I can't be arsed to find), but what I've heard from provincial elections are interesting:

1. Kirkuk's gov't will be dominated by Kurds. This will be a bargaining chip for the Kurds in negotiating the boundaries for a Kurdistan province. This also may accelerate the emigration of Arabs/immigration of Kurds to the city. Note that the oil fields around Kirkuk are sharply contested.

2. SCIRI has generally done better than Da'wa. This is interesting because Da'wa is the home-grown Islamist movement, while SCIRI is the exile movement (with stronger connections to Iran, incidentally). The importance of incumbent power, I suppose (since we favored exiles from the beginning, SCIRI got a big boost). It's an interesting contrast to how the much more prominent incumbency of the INA (Allawi's Party, the main party in the Iraqi list) utterly failed in bringing in votes (despite his bribes to journalists. etc.). Perhaps that's more a commentary on the failure of Allawi than the success of SCIRI?

3. The Shia Islamists have done very well provincially. Probably better than they're doing nationally. It's interesting that Sadrists have made strong showings in the South, especially in Wasit (where Kut is) where they won a majority. There'll be interesting Constitutional questions coming up relating to this, i.e. will there be a federative structure that permits Wasit to implement a more directly clerical (Iran-like) gov't that Sadr favors?

Edit: I say "generally" way too much.

[Edan]

The United Iraqi Alliance (Shiite alliance backed by Shiite Muslim clergy): 4,075,295 about 48 percent for 140 seats.

The Kurdistan Alliance (coalition of two main Kurdish factions): 2,175,551 about 26 percent for 75 seats.

The Iraqi List (headed by U.S.-backed interim Prime Minister Ayad Allawi): 1,168,943 about 14 percent for 40 seats.

Iraqis (headed by interim Iraqi President Ghazi al-Yawer): 150,680 for five seats.

The Turkomen Iraqi Front (represents ethnic Turks): 93,480 for three seats.

National Independent Elites and Cadres Party: 69,938 for three seats.

The Communist Party: 69,920 for two seats.

The Islamic Kurdish Society: 60,592 for two seats.

The Islamic Labor Movement in Iraq: 43,205 for two seats.

The National Democratic Alliance: 36,795 for one seat.

National Rafidain List (Assyrian Christians): 36,255 for one seat.

The Reconciliation and Liberation Entity: 30,796 for one seat.

Total votes: 8,550,571.

Invalid votes: 94,305.

Minimun number of votes to qualify for one seat: 30,750.

Source: Iraq's election commission.

http://www.boston.com/dailynews/045/world/List_of_leading_parties_that_w:.shtml

Why didn't the invalid votes getting any seats?

[lord of the mark]

Originally posted by Dr Strangelove
Unfortunately the capital of the country is in the middle of the area inhabited by the "marginalized" people.

southeastern corner actually, although there is a part of Babil province se of Baghdad that is mixed Sunni-shia.

[lord of the mark]

Originally posted by chegitz guevara
From what I'd read, the Communists were expected to do quite well, taking as much as 20% in places like Basra.

I had read that too - either it didnt pan out, or perhaps they did better in the provincial elections (held at the same time) than they did in the national election. Thats what seems to have happened with the Sadrists. Not an unreasonable voting strategy, to vote for the more "radical" parties locally, where they might run things cleaner, while being more cautious on the national level. This was not uncommon with CPs in med europe, for example.

[lord of the mark]

Originally posted by Ramo

Actually, the United Iraqi Alliance is a coalition of religious and secular Shiites.

No, it's generally Islamist, with a handful of guys who could really be considered secular (i.e. Chalabi). It's dominated by two Islamist parties, SCIRI and Da'wa.

to clarify further, while Ramo is correct that the parties that dominate the UIA are heavily islamist - da'wa and SCIRI packing a lot more weight than the INC - its also true that a large number of candidates on the list were independent affiliated with none of the party organizations, eg Sharistani. Several of these, IIUC, were secular figures. Some were Sunnis.


Also worth noting - about one third of the national assemblyt is female.

[lord of the mark]

Originally posted by Ramo

Edit: I say "generally" way too much.

"generally" is good - far better than the out of nowhere "all's" and "every's" and "none's" that some posters are fond of. This is a complex situation, and ackowledging that is a worthwhile humility, one I try to follow.

[Imran Siddiqui]

Originally posted by Lord Nuclear
What disturbs me is that people could actually vote for someone named Husain.

Um... it isn't exactly a rare name.

[Zkribbler]

National Front for Iraqi Unity 1

At least this party will speak with a unified voice.



********
But at least two things must be respected:
(1) That the vote went forward at all.
(2) That the majority party isn't going to use its political advantage to push a religious objective.

[Tassadar500]

Originally posted by Imran Siddiqui


Um... it isn't exactly a rare name.

I know that, I have a few friends with the name, but I still find it odd.