Russia and Japan: Together At Last

[Bosh]

Originally posted by Drake Tungsten
I'm not saying that Japan's attempt to foster an alliance with Russia is the wrong move; it's certainly the right move and the logical first step. Reading that article, though, I get the feeling that some Japanese leaders believe it is the only necessary step.

Well its pretty much the only step they can make, everyone else in the region hates Japan.

[Drake Tungsten]

Taiwan doesn't. It's also a bit silly to act as though alliances with foreign powers are the only steps Japan can take to deal with the threat of China. A increase in defense spending of just 1% of GDP would probably help Japan more in the long run than this new friendshp with Russia.

[RGBVideo]

Somethings never change, but somethings do. In their own ways, China, Japan, and Russia are huge world powers. This makes their "regional politics" of global importance.

That's not what I meant. I meant that the logic in this reminds me of the regional power meddling in Europe in the 18th century. Consider Russia's motives. In an area with 2 huge powers which it has no considerable loyalty ties with, it's allying itself with one which is clearly going to be the weaker one in the long run. Now where's the logic? Why would Russia seek alliances at all if it has no major interests in the area? The only motive which I thinked of was that Russia was trying to upkeep the Balance of Power between Japan and China by aligning itself with Japan, thus avoiding major future wars between the two in the future. Political thinking like this was popular in Europe for a long time. Then along came WWI and MPP's (using Civ3-terms...) in order to secure peace didn't seem to be cool ideas anymore.

It's also a bit silly to act as though alliances with foreign powers are the only steps Japan can take to deal with the threat of China. A increase in defense spending of just 1% of GDP would probably help Japan more in the long run than this new friendshp with Russia.

Russia maybe a nation with a population which is rapidly dying away and it's GDP may be in ruins; but in hard power terms, Russia backing you up would be much better than 1% GDP increase in military costs. Especially if you're having an economic crisis and don't want to create additional short-range budget costs.

Also, Russia has nuke-armed ICBM's, Japan does not.

[Drake Tungsten]

Russia maybe a nation with a population which is rapidly dying away and it's GDP may be in ruins; but in hard power terms, Russia backing you up would be much better than 1% GDP increase in military costs.

I think you underestimate how large Japan's GDP is.

edit: Some quick research seems to show that a 1% of GDP increase in Japan's defense budget would amount to around $36 billion in additional military spending. That, of course, is much larger than the Russian defense budget, which is currently at around $18 billion.

Also, Russia has nuke-armed ICBM's

So does the USA, so an alliance with Russia doesn't really give Japan any advantage they didn't already have on the nuclear umbrella front.

[PLATO]

It does give them the advantage of China having to potetially protect a 4000 mile boarder though.

[Drake Tungsten]

I don't think the Japanese needed to play nice with Russia to get that. The Chinese aren't going to ignore the potential threat of Russia, for a variety of reasons.