Pain and Suffering

[aeturneus]

ouch... had to go to a class today and my network went down right before I had to leave. Got the network back up, but I had been disconnected from the Firaxis game and couldn't finish my turns... unfortunately, I think I ended up uncloaked at stardock for most of the day, with the expected consequences

One of the hazards of the dark side I guess

[Wittlich]

Ouch!

[burbel]

Well, sorry about that, I didn't know that you had problems, but you were actually 5 sectors from stardock, and 8 sectors to stardock (there seem to be a lot of one-ways in this universe).

[Wittlich]

Originally posted by burbel
(there seem to be a lot of one-ways in this universe).

I've noticed that too!

[aeturneus]

Originally posted by burbel
Well, sorry about that, I didn't know that you had problems, but you were actually 5 sectors from stardock, and 8 sectors to stardock (there seem to be a lot of one-ways in this universe).

hey, dont apologize - I'm one of those guys that don't object to the quality of your hardware and connection to the internet playing a role in the ups and downs of online gaming. It's simply impossible to adjust for all user-dependent technical variables when you are trying to play - for example, I'm not purposely making less money just because I know burbel isn't using a helper to keep track of everything and is thus a little disadvantaged. I'll take my lumps

I just figured it was an interesting story, and one that might save my reputation as a careful (hehe) player from a slight blemish

As far as one ways go, that's a definable percentage of total warps - clearly, Dan has given us more one-ways, and as a result there definitely are more bubbles in this game than in other 1000 sector games we have played. By putting more one ways in the game, Dan has given every trip a more unique path - you have to visit, say, 10 sectors instead of 4 to get to a place 4 warps away and back again - and this in turn increases the overall usage of the universe, and spreads out activity. In a small universe like this one, I think it will inevitably force players to run into each other's fighters a lot more than they would, and even into each other, which will probably enhance the close-quarter-combat flavour that makes firaxis different from WoTW, in a good way.

=aeturneus=

[burbel]

That's what I was hoping. Oh, BTW, don't hold back anymore; I finally got a PC with Swath installed - what more is there? Oh, yeah, Winamp too.

So no more being easy on me. I can handle it.

On another note, how is the WotW game going for everyone?

[aeturneus]

for the record, I plan to recover my losses by gambling. I hope this further enhances my rep. as a careful player

Some people believe the odds of winning are 50/50, and although I'm not entirely sure that's true, if it is indeed an even probability of winning and you factor in the possibility of taking the jackpot, then the game is always rigged in your favour - although the higher the top score, the less cost-effective it is to play tricron.

So, since it takes no turns, I'm writing a swath script that will repeatedly gamble a set amount of money on my test game, and record the statistics to a log file, which I will then run through a different script to determine the actual probability of winning, to see if my above thesis is correct.

If it is, I fully intend on gambling every cent I make daily and reaping the rewards of better than 50/50 odds. You are all welcome to join in the fun

=aeturneus=

(excuse the odd logic of this post - I'm currently working on some rather obtuse research papers that may have addled my brain)

[burbel]

I was thinking the same thing, however, there is one problem that you'll see if you get to a certain point. From my experiences, the chance of winning is close to 50/50, however, once the pot is "sufficiently large" (yes, I was a Math person), the money required to play becomes prohibitive.

Winning the jackpot when the max TriCon score is 5000 is not hard, and, by that reasoning, the pot is small when you win in. At around 6800-7000, I find that you lose money steadily while gambling (as in the real world), and then win around 1.5 million credits.

I have tried on multiple games to get beyond that, my best being a jackpot of around 16 million. However, at that pot, IIRC, the $$$ to play is around 500k a round. The money you lose always seems to outweigh the daily earinings, to the point where you get 1-2 runs for your day's haul.

However, hit the jackpot...

Just my .02, I was going to try and solve the probablitlies and calculate the optimal point myself after the chances of winning were expirementally determined, but I had too small a sample to determine them from (no dedicated server, I had to make my $$$ to test my hypothesis).

[Xentropy]

Did anyone ever finally get a scientifically significant sample regarding this? I could always do it myself now that I own the game, but why bother repeating the work of others? ;>

[aeturneus]

Well, I never got around to compiling and analyzing my results, but I can say with some confidence, after working the machine about a thousand times, that the odds are not 50/50. They are more like 40/60, with a tendency to run in streaks - you are more likely to have the same result as you had last time you played, while restarting the game resets the counter. Eg. you win, you get something like 55/45 odds in favour of winning the next one, and if you lose, you get 65/35 in favour of losing the next one...

Best way to play then, is to keep rolling as long as you're winning, and then restart the game whenever you lose. By restart, I mean exiting to the tavern and then starting the game up again.

[Xentropy]

Sounds like strange results.

Btw, aeturneus, not trying to step on your feet by opening my own server, even if it seems the main players that want to join my game are the ones from WotW hehe

[Wittlich]

Actually, once Aeturneus rebangs the WotW game, I will most likely join up with that one too.