The Great what if

[Jay Bee]

Originally posted by Chris 62
See Jay Bee? This is why I no longer bother.

sorry to hear that Chris Look it from the positive side, some people have made worthy replies...

[Fiera]

Originally posted by Marquis de Sodaq

I think the americas would have ended up colonized, regardless of Columbus' success. Sooner or later, technologically superior europeans would have shown up to take lands.

My opinion exactly. And regarding Spain, she would have still been present in the European battlegrounds - her superiority came from the Gran Capitán campaigns in Naples (1494-1503), before any effect from the Americas colonization took place.

Besides, Northern Africa and even the Middle East would have been the natural route for all those eager for glory Conquistadors, such as Cortés, Pizarro, etc. had not they had the chance to try their luck in America.

In fact, the expansion through Northern Africa was the follow-up to the Reconquista, one of the greatest interests of the Catholic Kings, and king Fernando himself had the dream of fight the infidels all the way through Northern Africa to Jerusalem. This great project, continued to some extent by Charles V, was continuosly postponed due to the Italian wars, and I believe that it eventually came into oblivion due to the magnitude of the profit that Soain could get from her colonies in America.

[Jay Bee]

I also agree with Marquis and Fiera. However, when would have that happened. How long would have taken for somebody to sail west? I would speculate with 50-100 more years. As to the Spanish moving to Africa I don't see it that likely. What was to be obtained in Africa, land of the infidel muslims plus the Sahara desert??? I think Spain would have concentrated on Italy, Greece (and the Spanish Pass in the unlikely event the HRE was tied to Spain).

So, guys how long you think would have taken til somebody dared to cross the Atlantic? Who would have been the first? My pick is the Dutch. The French had no naval capacity and the Portuguese already had their own route. As to the English, well they always follow footprints

[Chris 62]

Originally posted by Jay Bee
sorry to hear that Chris Look it from the positive side, some people have made worthy replies...

Not your fault, my friend, but it does illustrate what we were speaking of the other day, doesn't it?

I believe that Columbus would have found another patron, and it is possible that it would probaly be either England or France (but he wouldn't have gotten three ships, one is more likely).

Hard to say if a fighting force to match the Conquitadors could be found in other powers, but without new world gold, Spain would have had a hard time paying for armies in Europe (Which were frightfully expensive to raise and maintain).

There is also the possibility of Spain making a conscerted effort to take Portugaul and her colonies as spain's own, thus gaining the eastern route to India and the Spice islands for the Spanish crown over the Portuguese one.

This means a Spanish (and thus heavily Catholic) presense in India, and it's unlikely the Dutch could steal the East Indies from Spain as easily as she did for Portugal, so isntaed of Islam being strong in southeast asia it may well have ended up being Catholisim that would dominate the Indies (Islam fared poorly under Spanish reign).

Portugual might have also looked to the west if an aggressive Spain stole it's eastward gains.
Besides the historical colonization of Brasil, they might have gone further against the Inca, or perhaps against the mezo-American cultures of central America.

Quite a ripple effect from one simple voyage, eh?

[yaroslav]

A post that was lost

This evening (19:00) I posted here, but it was lost!

Perphas this not...

First, on topic. If not Columbus, other will discover America soon. The time was rigth, with the Turks closing the orient's trades rute. Probably, Portugal get more money for his colonies in Africa and Asia... Spain probably colonies North Africa, a way that the discover of America closed. I think that 'the machine was turned on': seven thousand of continous Reconquista have created many charges (e.g: 'adelantado') that were used in America...

Second, on Carthago and Punics wars: Altough I love Cartago and I think that Hannibal is the better general of Ancients times, I think that Cartago was ruthless in his colonies (more than Rome, if possible ). And Cartago has his own culture better than Rome and worse than Greek, but enough to dislike the Greek culture, so I don't want think how much we lost if Cartago wins.

Some years ago, I read a sci-fi book, Time's Voyager, that was about if is... And one of them was about Second Punic war!

[Fiera]

Originally posted by Jay Bee
How long would have taken for somebody to sail west? I would speculate with 50-100 more years.

Hmm, 100 years seems too much to me. Columbus' intuition was based on maps already drawn by others, so it should have been a matter of time for any given brave sailor to try to discover the truth bhind all those old theories...

As to the Spanish moving to Africa I don't see it that likely. What was to be obtained in Africa, land of the infidel muslims plus the Sahara desert???

The Eastern Mediterran was a Turkish lake, so Northern Africa (and then all the way across Egypt) was the easiest pathway to Jerusalem. We tend to forget the religious motivation in our Renaissance kings politics, but it was certainly as important as the commercial goals.

So, guys how long you think would have taken til somebody dared to cross the Atlantic? Who would have been the first?

I'd bet for an accidental discovery. And this could be no other than the Portuguese sailing south along the West Africa coast. Perhaps a strong storm could have taken their ships to Brazil.

[Marquis de Sodaq]

Originally posted by Jay Bee
How long would have taken for somebody to sail west? I would speculate with 50-100 more years.

I suspect Columbus would have found another patron, or somebody (english) would have sponsored one of their own adventurers. I think within 10 or 20 years.

Originally posted by Jay Bee
What was to be obtained in Africa, land of the infidel muslims plus the Sahara desert?

Well, the Mali and Tuareg were important traders of salt and gold! Gold was a key element motivating the spanish to secure america, maybe they would have targeted africa instead...

Originally posted by Jay Bee
Who would have been the first? My pick is the Dutch.

Either them or the English. The English, I believe, would have ended up in north america regardless of Columbus, as I mentioned before. People generally thought the world was round, but the daunting task of going into what could be an endless sea is enough to keep brave sailors at port. Even so, somebody would have tried to find a way westward. The Dutch may well have done so, tho I think they may have been too cautious to be the first.

[Shaka Naldur]

Originally posted by Fiera
I'd bet for an accidental discovery. And this could be no other than the Portuguese sailing south along the West Africa coast. Perhaps a strong storm could have taken their ships to Brazil.

wasn´t that what happen to the portuguesse that discovered Brazil?
what was his name "Cabral"?

Spain would have turned to north africa, that was Fernando´s wish, and Felipe´s dream was to conquer Jerusalem for th Catholic faith

and probably Spain and Portugal would have fought a few wars for the asian route