I need advice (WM2914)

[Sahib]

I face a difficult decision in my world tourny game. I am Germany. The question is what to do with my fleets in NTH, Nor, Swe. What will England do, what should I do? Any advice is greatly appreciated.
Map: http://home.pacbell.net/emarksmi/2014.gif

[Napoleon Bonaparte II]

Firstly, your kicking ass. Done Apolyton proud.

Secondly, Attack that fleet in NW France...and slowly use the fleets to encircle England. I believe so anyway. Ruff is the 'expert' on England here so ask him...

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Almighty and Resident God
The more you know the more you realize you dont know. - Shep

[SnowFire]

You aren't in a "hurry." Gibtaltar is most likely sealed by now so I'd recommend playing conservatively with the advance of those fleets. Above all, the North Sea MUST NOT fall. That would truly be a disaster for you. So I'd say
F Nwy S F Nth
F Swe-Ska.
F Nth H

As for possible British counters, by far the best and safest one he has available is a strong attack on the North Sea with
F Edi-Nth
F Lon S F Edi-Nth

Other manuvers involve trying to bounce you out of the Norwegian or the Channel to bounce all your moves and keep the status quo, but that's not nearly as good as this offensive strike. Even if you retreat to Manchester should it be that Nth Sea is dislodged (even worse would be Nth advancing to Eng while Norway and Sweden are bounced back), that one fleet has "escaped" so to speak and would be heck to neutralize.

Anyway, after this move, you can advance in safety. You can launch a supported attack on Nth from Ska supported by Nwy, while your fleet in Nth goes off to mischevious places like the English Channel where it can insure the fall of Brest.

[Sahib]

Thank you!

I came to about the same conclusions. But I am not so sure if England will attack. The thing is, is he does not bounce me in Nwg, he will definately lose Edi in fall. He cannot risk that. So why shouldn´t he bounce me?

[Gerwald]

I would work on a convoy from NTH to English mainland. After you move F SWE - Skag. Skag can and should support NTH. Norway can then take the Norweign Sea with support from NTH. Then you can convoy an army into EDI with support. You have two armies (Prussia and Berlin) doing practically nothing anyhow. In two years you will own England.

[Gerwald]

BTW...congrats on your successful campaign!

[CyberGnu]

The brit must be a fool if he hasn't gotten peace with france right now. If so, there is no reason for him to keep F Por where it is.

An almost foolproof scheme in that case is:

This turn:

F Swe -> Ska
F Nor S F Nth Hold
F Nth yodels.
A Kie -> Hol

Next turn:
F Nor -> Nwy
F Ska S F Nth
F Nth C A Hol -> Yor
A Hol -> Yor

Now, if he is a poor player, this will probably succeed as it is... and you can jsut roll over him with your three to two advantage, starting with taking Lvp and Edi in your third turn.

If he is a medium to good player, he'll probably counter with:
this turn:
F Edi -> Nth
F Lon S F F Edi -> Nth
F Por -> Mao

Next turn:
F Edi -> Yor
F Lon -> Yor
F Mao -> Ech

Now you have a problem. If you try
F Nwy S A Hol -> Edi
A Hol -> Edi
F Nth C A Hol -> Edi
F Ska S F Nth

and he counters with
F Edi -> Nth
F Lon S F Edi -> Nth
F Ech S F Edi -> Nth

I think your fleet Nth is dislodged. That's no good.

But, he propably cant afford to gamble on that you wont order this, as it is the obvious play.

So instead order
F Nth C A Hol -> Yor
F Ska S F Nth
F Nwy S F Nth
A Hol -> Yor

Then, next turn order
A Yor -> Lvp.

He will have to disband something, and what doesn't matter. Either Brest or the rest of England will fall.

As far as I can tell, it is only a question of time until he falls.

Then again, maybe he'll keep Portugal where it is, and you can take Edi in your fourth turn anyway... :-)

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Gnu Ex Machina - the Gnu in the Machine
[This message has been edited by CyberGnu (edited February 22, 2001).]

[CyberGnu]

Third turn, actually... By convoy.

Funny, ordering
F Nth -> Edi
F Nwy S F Nth -> Edi
F Ska -> Nth

countered by
F Edi -> Nth
F Lon S F Edi -> Nth

would bounce.

But
F Nth C A Hol -> Edi
F Nwy S A Hol -> Edi
F Ska S F Nth
S Hol -> Edi

succeeds...

[CyberGnu]

quote: I came to about the same conclusions. But I am not so sure if England will attack. The thing is, is he does not bounce me in Nwg, he will definately lose Edi in fall. He cannot risk that. So why shouldn´t he bounce me?

Realized that I'd forgotten to answer this question

The simple reason is that if you have
F Nwg
F Yor (assuming you move here)
F Ska
A Hol

And he has
F Lon
F Nth

You'd win Edi, but you'd have 50% chance of losing either Hol/Bel or Nor/Den.

Once loose, he is almost impossible to corner...

Plus, regardless of what happens with the stray army, you'd have to take the rest of England.

F Edi
F Nwy
vs.
F Yor

would take you at least three turns to get London, providing the stray doesn't move to Nth (cutting support).

You could try for Lvp, but if he is in ownership of Nth, he would most likey move F Mao -> Iri, cutting off any chances of stealing Lvp.

[Sahib]

Thanks, my friends, for so much support. The deadline was last night, so what was done was done. I will openly post my moves here now, since the results are not yet out. But I think I found a way to trick England. I´m looking forward to the results I must say

I agree with Gnu that in time I would easily take ENgland. However, time is of the essence here. This tournament ends in 1909. Therefor I decided from very early on in this game that only with bold moves will I succeed. I gambled a couple of times (even risked that Moscow army once) and so far always won. I guess the enemy has not yet understood that I accept far greater risks then he does.

Also, to my advantage, this game has only one really top rated player (who just got fourth place in the north american DipCon in Denver - LS, you were there too, right?).