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Originally posted by JohnIII
Well, it would be, if that happened. But if that happened, wouldn't that top 10 list have a lot more gaqmes spread throught the year, rather than November-December time?
The figures I mentioned were demonstrative not actual.
If you have stats on how many games are released each month, and the release dates for the top 100, then we can empirically check. Without that data you cannot make a firm conclusion either way.
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Originally posted by JohnIII
Exactly, but we do have some data, the top 100 list. Taking the top 10 shows that the best games are released around Christmas time.
Is this the top 10 list in sales or ratings? If in ratings, who did the ratings?
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Originally posted by Apocalypse
I kinda hope that Sid's X-COM/Settlers hybrid comes out next year too.
Say what?
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Originally posted by JohnIII
Exactly, but we do have some data, the top 100 list. Taking the top 10 shows that the best games are released around Christmas time.
We have no data on how many games are released a month though.
If
Games released x percentage hits = Hits
and we know the number of hits, we still don't know what the percantage of games that are hits is - for any period in the year.
Well looking at the list, there are plenty of games up there that could be highly debated and a number of games that I haven't seen yet that most lists would put a lot higher (StarCraft, anyone?).
That aside, I think we have proven that games released in the Christmas rush can become classics. They can also be duds. More often than not, in my opinion, if they come out pre-Christmas they are rushed and do not fufil their promise. Meanwhile, developers that delay their games tend to make them better in meaningful ways.
I agree with Sagacious Dolphin that we need how many are released a month before this can be answered.
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Originally posted by ADG
Wasn't Starcraft released some years ago? I remember having played it once...at it wasn't this year...
For those who still haven't got it: This poll is about games that has been released this year!
My point is in discussing the link that John gave us to show that all great games come out at Christmas. He gave a list of the top 100 games of all time so to prove this point. I am countering that the list is not very good. It contains the top 100 games of all time. Well they have StarCraft at like number 90 something or other. That is highly debatable. They even say it is the greatest RTS of all time in their writeup but then have a number of more recent RTS higher in their list.
There is no Sim City on that list, it does have Sim City 2000, but can you really argue that the second one was better for its day and age and more influential than the original? Same goes for Civ I not being on there. It is clearly heavily biased to games released in the last year that will soon fall - Deus Ex, Giants, Shogun, Baldur's Gate II, and Black & White were all good games but they will not stay top 20 for long. Will any of them be remembered as a classic? I don't think they will be. Black & White was way overrated - the game wasn't fun. Deus Ex will stay that high only until the next one is released. Giants did not sell more than like five copies. Shogun - well maybe. But none will stay that high. And Half Life the best game of all time? You got to be kiding. A FPS, the most crowded genre of all, and not even the original like Doom but Half Life? Pretty suspect to me.
My point in all of this is that what your defining as a hit is pretty weak. To go from a list that many would debate, and I find laughable at times is not a good base of information. Sales would be better. Or a list of all games released last year that we could then decide which ones were hits and which ones weren't would be better still. But a list that came out in 2001 without mention of the Sims, Diablo II, Command & Conquer, Myst, and others that are some of the biggest sellers of all time is hard to say means that the hits all come out at Christmas. What you have shown is that a few high rated games come out then, not the hits. The hits should be based on sales or something less arbitrary than a couple of guys that love a FPS that was good but not as revolutionary as they say it was.
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This discussion will lead nowhere because many games are considered hits by some of us while others merely think that they are mediocre... so numbers won't help us much. Even sales numbers tend to be higher during the Christmas time so that hits released during that time are bought more often than those released earlier (Since thats why every publisher trys to get their games in the Christmas period).
So from a logical viewpoint it looks like that:
- publishers/developers of good and bad games will try to hit the Christmas market with their games -> the total amount of good games is higher at the end of the year
- if a game is still buggy but the publisher expects a hit (the game will sell well even outside the Christmas period) the publisher has enough money and is willing to spend it (usually just when the game will be a hit) and the developer/publisher has a reputation to lose then the game usually gets delayed. This means that hits are delayed more often then average games or that games that aren't delayed won't become hits. -> the percentage of good games should be lower during the Christmas period. But then there are games that are delayed into the Christmas period, there are highly anticipated games that never become successful and a lot of other exceptions - every year could give a different result...
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