Mafia 7 - Appearances Can Be Deceiving

[Zopperoni]

If they have a tie now then they would almost be able to guarentee they catch the mafia the next turn.

Unless we're double-wrong.

[Drogue]

HongHu: That isn't true. If you tie this turn, and the mafia does not die, then choosing the other person of the tie next time is logical. However the net effect is 0. The reasoning for this is that if you tie this time, then the mafia will not be killed. There is a probability of 0. If you choose the other person in the tie next time, then they have twice the chance of being the mafia, because they have the average chance of two people. Therefore, it is exactly the same porbability as if you don't tie and choose 2 random people.

If you tie, the other person in the tie is, probability wise, the most likely mafia, and the best choice next time. However that is because during the tie there is no chance of executing the mafia. Choosing two random people is the same, but you don't have to choose the other person the next time in order to have the same probability, you can choose anyone. This ability to adapt, the flexibility of choice, is the reason ties are generally not a good thing, except for in the first two rounds when you don't want to kill the mafia.

[vovan]

Name	Status	Vote
Nikolai	Alive	Jamski
Zopperoni	Alive	Nikolai
MattH	Alive	Nikolai
Skanky Burns	Dead (Mafia - Round 2)	N/A
Guynemer	Dead (Villagers - Round 1)	N/A
CaptainGarlic	Alive	Nikolai
Frozzy	Alive	N/A
Pave	Alive	N/A
Kassiopeia	Alive	Nikolai
alva	Dead (Mafia - Round 3)	N/A
Jamski	Alive	Nikolai
Jon Miller	Alive	N/A
Sandman	Alive	N/A
Spaced Cowboy	Alive	Jamski
ADG	Alive	Jamski
Drogue	Dead (Mafia - Round 1)	N/A
Comrade Tassadar	Dead (Villagers - Round 2)	N/A
rah	Alive	Frozzy
Village Status: Day
Votes: Nikolai - 5 Jamski - 3 Frozzy - 1

[Snowflake]

You like to talk about possibilities don't you, Director Drogue?

Ok let's see. We have 13 undead people. Without any information, if one is ramdomly choosen, the chance that he is the mafia is 1/13. If he turns out not to be the mafia, the next turn we have 2 people less, and the chance we choose the mafia by randomly picking is 12/13 * 1/11. So the total probability of catching him in two turns is 1/13+12/143 = 23/143.

Now if we are going to pick two people in this turn, the chance that one of them is the mafia is 2/13. So the chance that we catch the mafia in the second turn is 22/143.

Well guess you are right. Without additional info, a tie does not help. I guess because the second turn one person would be killed by the mafia so we actually take more info into account by not restricting ourselves with a tie.

Not that this is of interest of anybody.

[Sandman]

Jon Miller.

[CapitanGarlic]

13 Undead people? Sweet zombie Jesus!

[Frozzy]

Nikolai

[Nikolai]

I feel the cold, slimy fingers of Death streching after me...

[vovan]

With Frozzy's vote ended yet another meeting of the village. Nikolai now had a three-vote lead over his closest "contender" and so even the votes of the missing Pave and Jon Miller couldn't possibly save him. All the time that the voting took place, Nikolai was sitting a little bit away from the crowd, that gathered around a fire, and was grinning, even though he looked rather nervous and a bit suspicious. But when Frozzy spoke, the fisherman realized that his end was near. His face changed its expression, and now some unhuman rage was seen in his eyes. He looked like an animal caught in a cage. He looked a bit insane...

The villagers surrounded Nikolai, who stood motionless - now the center of attention. But when ADG the lumberjack made a motion to grab Nikolai by the hand, the man burst. He gave a cry of rage and hit ADG square in the nose with his right, and then followed up with a hook to the jaw with his left. The hits were quite unexpected and ADG lost his balance and fell to the ground. Everybody was stunned by this sudden turn of events, but Jamski was the first one to come out of the surprised stupor and jumped at Nikolai from the back, trying to grab his neck. Nikolai, amazingly, felt the danger and ducked right out of Jamski's way. He turned around, and used the momentum of the spin to connect smoothly with Jamski's stomach. The hit knocked the wind out of the sheperd, and the man staggered to one knee, gasping for breath. A sly smile appeared on Nikolai's face and he stood up straight, looked at the rest of the villagers to see who would come next. Just as Nikolai turned his head, a swoosh could be head, and ADG's axe took it off cleanly...

The mess was cleaned up, but the villagers didn't celebrate. They had learned to know better than that. In the evening, however, noone found any more threatening messages, and the village slowly returned back to the normal pace of life. Although Skanky's pub was sorely missed...

---

Nikolai was, indeed, the Mafia, and he replaced Guynemer. I don't know, either you guys are getting much better, or I am just lousy at giving subtle hints, but you got both Mafias again. Congratulations to the winners: Zopperoni, MattH, CapitanGarlic, Frozzy, Pave, Kassiopeia, Jamski, Jon Miller, Sandman, Spaced Cowboy, ADG, and rah!

[vovan]

Re: Mafia 7 - Appearances Can Be Deceiving

Double post.

[MattH]

Woo-Hoo!!!

[Zopperoni]

Great game

And sign me up for the eighth edition

I initially wanted to volunteer for GM in the next game, but this one ended too soon. I'm too busy at the moment, but would like to GM the ninth game then.

[GhengisFarbâ„¢]

Sign me up for the next one.

[Ming]

RAH (POSTING FROM MING"S MACHINE)

SAVE ME A SPOT>

Thanks.

[MattH]

Oh yeah... spot me!