To attack or not to attack?

[Locutus]

This thread is to discuss if we should launch a third offensive.

In the attachment below, you see a picture of our new acquisitions H Town and Pressburg. North of that (near the start of the river), you see a gap where should be the Austrian town of Wels. This town was founded only last turn. It is situated in a mix of (Desert) Hills, Plains and River, a good combination to grow strong fast.

If we allow this city to exist and prosper, it could become a major problem in the future: if we decide to attack Graz, we leave H Town, Pressburg and Pedrunnia vulnerable to attack from Wels. If we attack Wels, we leave these cities vulnerable to attack from Graz. Also, Wels could very well be used as a basis to send more Settlers north and to allow the Austrians to replace their lost cities there. If they do this, it will be much harder for us to conquer Austria.

Although I think most of us (including yours truly) agree that we should defend and consolidate now (in preparation for a strike on Graz), there could be a huge strategic advantage in taking out Wels now. It's currently very weak, probably defended by at most 1 unit by the time our armies can reach it. Taking it out now relieves us from the double threat in the future and reduces the AIs potential to found cities in the north.

We currently have 5 units in Pressburg and 4 in H Town, with construction times of 3-4 turns per unit (I think 1 or 2 turns left until the next unit is done in H Town). Should we take 2 or (at most) 3 units from these cities to take out Wels now or is defence so important that we can't afford this?

Note that Wels is probably size 1 if we go for it now, so we would destroy rather than conquer it. The disvantage of this is that this means we don't get to keep the city but it also means we have 1 city less to defend (and it'll already be hard enough to defend the cities we have). Note that we will still get a gold/PW bonus from the conquest.

This thread is to discuss if we should attack (my vote is yes, if that wasn't obvious already) and if so, how (what units and from what cities). My vote would go to an Archer from Pressburg and a Hoplite from H Town (which is close to finishing a Hoplite anyway).

[mapfi]

H Town is far more important than Pressburg. Pressburg has only size 1, so if it's attacked shortly it'll be destroyed and we won't have a Austrian city right at the gates of H Town. By the time it has size 2 we've got more units built in there. That's why I'd take the units from Pressburg - 2 or better 3 and check out Wels. Then those units could return to H Town and help massing troops for attacking Graz.

[Gilgamensch]

I must admit the position of Pressburg (has the name been polled ???????) is, to say it gentle, bad. But instead of letting it destroyed I would rather prefer we disband the city and build a new one, with the settler we would get from it.

As we don't have any intelligence about the surrounding, I would suggest to build up some defence and explore at the same time.

To take Graz ........... might be still a better choice as Wels.
But how well is it defended. The AI had some time for re-inforcement. So our army might be to weak....... Also don't forget it would take at least 3 more turns to take Graz, so even more defenders.

My two €-cents onto the topic

[MrBaggins]

My vote is no for now.

I think its overextending ourselves and giving us no option to defend ourselves from a danger we can only see coming too late.

We should concentrate on garrisoning H Town appropriately. 10 Units... split between Hoplites and Archers, perhaps with the odd warrior. This would guarantee its security.

We then build a 3 Hoplite & 3 Archer attack force... to attack Weis, and continue building for the Graz attack. We capture Weis... if its > size 1, build settlers to make best use of it, then disband it. We get one or more settlers, and can reuse the attack force in Graz, joined by another 3 Hoplites and 3 Archers... Making a 6 Hoplite & 6 Archer army.

We overwhelm Graz and reconsolidate... possibly attacking to the south, to form an entirely new front line, and allow us more safety in developing to the south west of the capital.

MrBaggins

[MrBaggins]

The Pressburg site is useful and valuable... the irrigation is a godsend. It can also help in pumping out troops.

I see no big advantage in disbanding it.

I don't see it as terribly vulnerable.

It very quickly becomes viable... and is a good (better than most of our choices) site.

I think that the Austrians will choose H Town (or Pedrunnia) first, in an attack... should they attack. I think that we should be prepared for a significant attack too... they have a significant manufacturing ability in Linz, their capital and Graz.

MrBaggins

[Locutus]

Taking 2 units from Pressburg sounds indeed like a good plan.

I don't think sending out 2 out of 10 units for a brief mission (7 turns to go to Wels, destroy it and go back to H Town) is overextending ourselves. I certainly don't plan on keeping the city (if it's already size 2 by the time we get there we could enslave/disband it) and we can rush-buy units in H Town and Pressburg to build up a formidable defence in no-time.

The Austrians have already sent out 2 units from Graz and will keep the city itself well defended, so if a major strike force is underway, it'll have to come from Vienna or even further away, which buys us some time. I think we should make the best of that time by doing as much damage as we can while we can. Being able to destroy an undefended city and taking some gold and PW in the process is a gift from heaven as far as I'm concerned.

By the time we have all our cities properly defended with 6+ units and also built up an attack force of 6 units, Wels will be well defended and could well require a full stack to take, a stack we need much harder to take on Graz. It's infinitely easier to take out a weak village now and a fortress later than it is to take out 2 fortresses later.

[Locutus]

BTW, another issue: what do we want to do with the goody hut? At first I assumed it must have contained barbs since it was deep inside Austrian borders and they didn't touch it yet, but now I think of it, I think there's a gap in the borders halfway between Pressburg and Vienna (you can just see 1 edge of border along the unexplored section in the middle), so maybe it's not so deep inside the borders after all and the Austrians simply didn't get around to investigating it yet? (I've seen it often enough.) There might be a powerful unit or advance in it, something we could really use right now. Then again, I could be wrong and it might still be barbs...

[Martin Gühmann]

Originally posted by Locutus
BTW, another issue: what do we want to do with the goody hut? At first I assumed it must have contained barbs since it was deep inside Austrian borders and they didn't touch it yet, but now I think of it, I think there's a gap in the borders halfway between Pressburg and Vienna (you can just see 1 edge of border along the unexplored section in the middle), so maybe it's not so deep inside the borders after all and the Austrians simply didn't get around to investigating it yet? (I've seen it often enough.) There might be a powerful unit or advance in it, something we could really use right now. Then again, I could be wrong and it might still be barbs...

How many Barbs could pop up from this hut, from my experience that would only be two units, so a combined stack of archers and hoplites would survive the possible surprise attack. Well it could be a little bit risy to use all the units in Pressburg, but it could be worth, maybe we could leave one unit there.

-Martin

[MrBaggins]

I crunched some numbers to get an approximate feel for what to do about Weis.

Approximate growth for Weis is 650 (very poor)
Production is a below 35

This means that the city will grow in 15 turns or better... Particularly if the AI irrigates (irrigation helps us and mining hurts us, but is unlikely)

The best the city can produce without rush buying is 2 units, if its not been irrigated and is less than size2.

This assumes: the AI will not make a dumb choice in production, which helps us greatly, and that it won't rush buy.

Significant rush buying is unlikely: the AI has a spending cap, and recognises threats badly.

We can assume a worst case of 3 units + city walls, when the city turns size 2, if it is not already.

3 hoplites and 3 archers will massacre the defences.

If we build 2 archers in Pressburg and 3 Hoplites in H Town, and suppliment with one archer, then we should be able to overwhelm any defence, and get a settler, plus the cash for any improvements that remain.

The reward> a 740 shield settler (and the option to settle it where we choose) is a better choice than wrecking the city, and getting no reward.

We have to keep an eye on what size the city is.

MrBaggins

[MrBaggins]

Regarding the hut, I think its worth the risk to pop the hut, but not to send Pressburg into a riot to do it.

Send 1 unit (hoplite).

If barbs get popped, we might lose 1 unit, but it will create a more significant problem for wandering Austrians too...

[MrBaggins]

Oh... and we should have a farmer for just 1 turn in Pressburg... it will mean the difference between growing in 3 turns and 2 turns. Production is a wash, and we gain a tiny bit of gold and science.

[Ãskallin]

I say that we use the chess rule
good defense is good offense so i say that we go, take Welsh get ot of there andonto the next city...

[Martin Gühmann]

Originally posted by MrBaggins
Regarding the hut, I think its worth the risk to pop the hut, but not to send Pressburg into a riot to do it.

Send 1 unit (hoplite).

If barbs get popped, we might lose 1 unit, but it will create a more significant problem for wandering Austrians too...

More probably it will a problem for us.

-Martin

[MrBaggins]

barbs we pop won't be significant enough to defeat Pressburg or H Town...

[Martin Gühmann]

Originally posted by MrBaggins
barbs we pop won't be significant enough to defeat Pressburg or H Town...

But tthey could do some harm like pillaging and then we would have to leave with a force big enough. And then one of our cities could be too less defended for two or three turns.

-Martin