525 AD - war or no war

[PJayTycy]

There are 2 possibilities for GS actions we have to account for :

--> either their spearman moves up further north inside "our" lands
--> either their spearman stays where he is (or moves south).

(see this post for the current situation)


Also, we have 2 options:

--> Try to convince GS we're still friendly and to transfer feudalism to us (then we go to war). This might involve keeping a lot of our units 6+ turns away from their first city.
--> Declare war at the spot, starting by killing their spear and research feudalism ourselves



So, let's make a decision before the next turn comes in...

[N35t0r]

Wait and try to get Feud from them.

[Impaler[WrG]]

I'd keep moving units as planned and road building as planned, I'd consider delaying upgrading so as not to spike the power graph but only if it can be done with out delaying the effectiveness of the strike. If we don't get Fud in 3 turns then we war, if we do well we probably war anyways or build up a bit longer (with our higher production I'd think more prep time is a benefit to us as we can out produce them 2:1). Also their no ware near gun-powder, they would need to complete Paper and Education just to start it and they probably are in fact researching Feudalism as its their best defensive Tech.

In any event I don't want to attack that spear man even if it moves north, its not a serious threat and can dispatched by other units, we might order GS to remove themselves from our territory but killing it would be a bad idea as we would lose the slim chance to get Fud AND be tipping our hand with respect to war just as badly as if the spear man sees the army on the march.

[binTravkin]

A bit of history:
1.GS delayed researching at all for some 6-7 turns
2.After our repeated inquiries we got to know that "a stupid turnplayer" (NYE) has forgotten to do something (but no official message).
3.After expressing our dissatisfaction with the situation they just moved the slider so that they don't gain cash anymore (like 50% research or smth), though last turn they at last have put it at 100%.
4.We have sent two official messages asking on their status on Feud, none has been answered.
5.They have put a city in what's clearly our territory by any logic and posted a scout unit even closer.

Sounds like ally?

Also their no ware near gun-powder, they would need to complete Paper and Education just to start

1.They can easily have Paper pre-researched after all these delays.
2.A GS would cut 2500b that's needed for Education to < 1000.
3.They have enough gold for 7 turns of research, which in this case would be enough to do Paper and Education.
4.Then it's like 8-10 turns for Liberalism and voila, they have Gunpowder.

With Feudalism they will have enough time to upgrade their useless skirmishers to longbowmen, thus enough time to delay us to get to Gunpowder.

its not a serious threat

I wasn't implying it's a serious threat, but that it effectively blocks any movement 4 turns before that city as long as we want to hide it.

About upgrades: we will need to upgrade two units in the turn after.

About power spikes: we produced one chuck 2 turns ago, 1 mace last turn, will produce another mace this turn and another chuck the turn after, so the power graph will jump by a big amount. It is doubtful they will still transfer us Feudalism after seeing that.

About unit movements: with policy of waiting for Feudalism we delay capture of first city by 4-5 turns since our chucks cannot move. If we think that we shouldn't move in workers as well, that adds extra delay.

[binTravkin]

In any case, we should wait to see what GS is doing this turn to resolve this issue completely.
They have now taken two days for turn and Safan thinks that's because something is not going as planned.

[N35t0r]

They're probably having a big discussion about the possibility of war. Either between gearing up or trying to appease us, or between continuing to risk doing things we don't like and trying to appease us, after seing our power more than twice theirs and still growing.

[Mart]

I wonder how much we can buy time by appearing not reacting to their bad behavior?

[binTravkin]

The ones buying time are them.
We are in superior position, which will become less superior over time.

[Mart]

How about we prepare for war the best we can, we move units as fast as we can, but we declare war only when our actions are obvious that we will attack.

Any units near Hun might be understood as border garrison or Hun attack force (if GS can think this way)

[Snoddasmannen]

I voted for going to war immediately.

Let's not let them sneak up on us to get on a level footing. They have no intentions to ever give us feudalism, would you if you were them? If you would, wouldn't you be frantically working your diplomacy skills right now?

As I understand, there are some tactical benefits for declaring war immediately, if so - let's do that. The general strategic situation is pretty clear to both them and us methinks.

[Lacero]

I voted for the first option but I want to stress that we don't need to stop diplomacy even if we declare war. Plenty of ways to dress this up and get something extra out of it.

Mart, our actions will be obvious next turn unless we kill their lookout (depending slightly on their movements this turn). We can attack right now and kill their first city with our chucks. If you're set on war then sooner is always better than later.

I'm trying to remember a quote about the number of wars lost by reacting too late and the number won by attacking quickly, but I'm not sure who even said it

[N35t0r]

A successful general wins first, then goes to war. An unsuccessful war goes to war first, then seeks to win.

[Lacero]

We've already won, we outnumber and outproduce and outresearch them.

I found it, sun tzu:
"Thus, though we have heard of stupid haste in war,
cleverness has never been seen associated with long delays."

[N35t0r]

Yeah, my quote is from Sun Tzu as well.

[binTravkin]

By GS:

Sorry again... I missed the save tracker post. Will play in about 6 hours.