Voxian Choke

[Velociryx]

I'm making this thread so we can discuss the particulars of the Voxian choke, and how we want our forces arrayed to best disrupt their plans, production, food, and commerce.

I pulled this pic from a thread Blake wrote in, and it gives us a nice, grided view of Voxian territory. We should be able to use this map to plot out exactly where we want our forces to go, and what we mean to deny the Voxians, in terms of resources.

At present, we have 1 warrior on scene, 1 skirmisher about to complete, and SpineBreaker (woody II promo) who could be used to lay the smack down on them.

First question, do we want to send SB over with the Skirmisher? (As has been pointed out elsewhere, they would arrive at approximately the same time).

Second question, which tile should the Skirmisher make for? In looking at the map, my first impression is to put the skirmisher on the cow tile...not great defense for him, but it is about the best tile they've got, and if we deny them use of it, we hamper their efforts at generating defenders.

If we use SB, given his promotions, he should clearly be placed on some forest tile or another, but IF we use SB for this purpose, I would like to front the idea that it be only temporary, until we can get additional skirmishers in the vicinity, and then relieve him to do some additional scouting for us in the north country.

Thoughts?

-=Vel=-

[Velociryx]

If I'm reading the map correctly, the hill just NW of the cows is a forested hill, and would make an excellent destination point for SB (plays well with his promotions, gives him good line of sight, and he can support the Skirmisher on the cow tile...plus, once we get additional forces in the area, he's already situated northerly, and could head off in that direction for scouting, if the team deems this a good use of him).

-=Vel=-

[Cort Haus]

What are the chances of Vox building, say five archers, then sending a settler out with two of them before we have enough Skirms on site to be able to intercept?

[Velociryx]

Well...they don't have a worker yet (and may be building one...dunno), and at present, the whole of their force consists of two warriors (that we can see...do they have a scout in the north country? This too, is an unknown).

We've got a warrior on scene, currently blocking commerce and hammers (sitting atop their gold hill).

Skirmisher will be on his way in two more turns...ten to get there, so twelve turns from now, both he and SB can be in the neighborhood. That gives us three good units in the 'hood to keep watch over them in ~ a dozen turns, and just as importantly, it shuts down three good tiles, which will further degrade their options and their ability to do anything.

I don't see how they could generate that kind of hammer output in time to save 'em. If they try tho, we'll have enough units in their faces to make them worry, and we'll have sparkling good intel (very little FoW in Vox lands once our next units get there)...they won't be able to budge without us knowing about it.

-=Vel=-

[Randolph]

I’m sure there will be better suggestions to come, but here’s my thoughts:
1. Is the cow really any better then the forest tiles before they have AH?
2. If we have a unit on the hill 44 of The Voice, a unit on the gold (23), and one on the forest 88 we can see all the tiles in their radius except 96. The hill 44 isn’t a particularly useful tile, and we could trade line of sight for tile-blocking by moving onto the forest 4.
3. Skirmishers get an additional +25% on hill, so ceteris paribus we’re better off with them on any hills we want to defend, and the warriors on the forests.
4. If I were to use the tiles I mentioned above (44/4, 23, 88), I’d say skirm on 23, SB on 4, and grog on 88.

[Velociryx]

Excellent points, Randolph, and hiyas.

In your mind, how much of a priority would the flood plains tile be? Advantage to us if we occupy it, cos they'd have to attack cross-river, and an important source of food denied to them (to sorely limit their options of whipping).

Of course, two archers attacking a skirmisher there could, in all liklihood, oust him (and we're back to that local tile superiority thing, which means that we'd need additional units adjacent to him so we could attack anything still breathing after they beat us on that tile).

-=Vel=-

[Randolph]

Originally posted by Cort Haus
What are the chances of Vox building, say five archers, then sending a settler out with two of them before we have enough Skirms on site to be able to intercept?

Well at 7 hammers a turn (I believe that is their max; same with max hammers + extra food) they’re ~33 turns away from that at worst (no production on any of them), and ~18 at best (one hammer left on a settler). I believe that we can have 3 skirmishers there in 19 turns, which should be enough to stop them (>50%), assuming we could fork The Voice and the settler stack.

Edit: well, on second thought maybe not, one archer and their two warriors would probably be enough to keep us out of The Voice, and 4 archers stand a good chance at stopping 3 skirms and 1-2 warriors. Still, it seems like a long shot for questionable rewards.

Edit2: if as Blake believes, the tile 89 of The Voice is a plains forest, then they could get:
+7 at size 4: 1(1,2),88(1,2),89(1,2),8(3,0), 5(2,1))
+8 at size 5 (+ 4(2,1))
and +9 at size 6 (2(2,1))
But they couldn’t grow while producing this.
Note: now Blake’s prioritization makes perfect sense!

[Velociryx]

If we split the difference and say that they could do it in ~ 26 turns (extremely unlikely, IMO), we could have at least two additional skirms over there, not counting the one we're about to give birth to, and SB (that would give us 3 skirmishers and 2 warriors in the vicinity....If I was them, I wouldn't wanna risk striking out with a settler under guard of two archers with that kind of force close by....and long-term, it would make an untenable position even worse, as they would have to split their defense between the two sites--it's gonna take a while to get the new city up to speed and with decent hammers, and in the meantime, it has to be supported by their capitol, lest they risk losing it--while we could focus on one or the other....

No...given the timeframes we're looking at, and our upper hand, if they attempted it, they'd wind up giving us a city somewhere, whether they wanted or meant to or not.

-=Vel=-

[Randolph]

Well if they wanted to take the FP they could easily cross the river then attack. I’ll defer to others on the details of whip-o-nomics, but I doubt that +3fpt max (+4 max if they irrigate it; 3 GFs & FP) w/ no granary makes for very efficient whipping (and only +4hpt with that set up). They can’t use the extra food to get more hammers unless they have a mine. Growing to size five will net them only one more hammer.

Maybe I’m missing something, but I’m most concerned with how many hammers they can get. Growth is only a means to hammers and commerce (& whipping). There’s not really a technology (besides BW) that will really change their position (AH would be nice for the cow, but unless they actually got to work it with a pasture it doesn’t help them much) and the +1 commerce from the non-forest river tile is minimal anyway. Growing will only increase hammer output if they are able to work all their forests, and the cow.

So I guess right now I don’t consider the FP to be a high priority tile, but I’m certainly open to alternative arguments .

[Velociryx]

Well said.

For myself, I see it as maybe slightly higher in priority than you...not a first tier choice, but also something we should keep an eye on...it's not the most efficient whip ingredient they could hope for, no, but if we occupy all the best hammer terrain, then it will become their primary engine for growth, and thereby, for converting pop points directly into hammers.

Unfortunately, it's also the one tile that we can't easily defend, without committing a fair number of additional resources (and by the time we could really afford to nix it out from under them, they'll be on the ropes anyway)....

That's why I love this game!

-=Vel=-

[Blake]

Firstly I absolutely agree that commerce should simply be ignored - the Alphabet is the only tech of any possible relevance because they might be able to use it for 10 turns of peace with us, or to bribe another party into the war. That doesn't however seem very likely to help them.


I don't believe we can effectively choke (well... throttle) them without at least 4 Skirmishers, the most valuable tiles in order of tier are:
Hypothetical Copper Tile.
Floodplain, Cow, 2x Plains Forest
3x Grassland Forest
2 yield tiles.

As long as they are working 3-yield tiles they basically get +1hpt per pop point, either by working a 1-2 tile, or whipping. They have fully 7 3-yield tiles (assuming no copper), so we need to lock down 4 of them before they even begin to hurt (whipping involves being at size 4).

So the purpose of the choke are twofold:
1) Play chase the worker, it seems they are training a worker atm (either that or growing to 5). One skirmisher should be able to effectively keep the worker moving - they can actually do a turn of flat land work every turn (move work, move work...) but they can't do anything in a forest or a hill - the skirmisher will catch up. They can try guarding it with 1 archer, but then they run the terrible risk of losing both the archer and worker to the low odds battle (but not so low as to make it non-worthwhile for us to take). I say they need 2 archers and the 2 warriors to effectively shut down 1 skirmisher - they can escort the worker with 1 archer+warrior, and garrison The Voice with the other two. Demograph indicates they need to invest 110 hammers to get that, which will take 18 turns. So 1 skirmisher should be able to cause them considerable grief (or at least some anguish when it comes to battle odds).
2) Test the waters. Are Vox Archers pirrana's or goldfish? Have they got bite or do they just look pretty in their sheltered little habitat? Vox might be planning to make a heroic effort to keep us out of their territory. I suspect they can probably manage this (especially with whipping) - at the cost of speeding up their demise by maybe 20 turns.

I think we probably want to send Skirmisher 1 in and send him safely into the forest, right next to The Voice. As he arrives we'll research Bronze Working (and it should be a few turns before Vox do), it might be they have copper on one of the hills - making it clearly good to place Mr Skirm. If no copper I think the forest will be as good as place as any.


Relevant is skirmishers odds of winning against archer zergs with varying bonuses:
(odds is a single skirmishers chance of surviving the given number of archers)

Flat Land (0% bonus):
78.2%
17.9%
1.9%

Fortified on Flat OR across river (25% bonus):
1 Archer: 96.2%
2 Archers: 52.1%
3 Archers: 14.4%

Forest or Hill (+50% bonus):
1 Archer: 99.1%
2 Archers: 72.9%
3 Archers: 33.7%

Across River and Fortified (-25% / +25% bonus):
1 Archer: 99.3%
2 Archers: 75%
3 Archers: 37.3%

Fortified in forest or on hill (+75% bonus)
1 Archer: 99.5%
2 Archers: 87.4%
3 Archers: 55.5%



Also relevant is our one skirmisher odds to win against a single archer:

Archer on flat (0% bonus):
78.1%

Fortified Archer (+25% bonus):
66.2%

Archer in Forest or Hill (+50% bonus):
30.1%

Archer fortified in Forest (+75% bonus):
22.5%

And finally attacking Vox while they have a +40% culture bonus:

Archer fortified in The Voice (+115% bonus):
1 Skirm: 4.3%
2 Skirms: 50.4%
3 Skirms: 90.1%


Note that with even the slighest bonuses Skirmishers totally outclass Archers and Archers need massive bonuses to get Skirm odds down into single digits. Also the skirmisher odds are ever so slightly better than the listed numbers (the calculator I used doesn't support First Strike chances).

It can be conluded that if we put a skirmisher in forest, they wont be moving him without at least 3 archers.

[Randolph]

1. Your right about the gold, I just took it as a given, but even +3 commerce is probably less valuable to them then one hammer/food.

2. I’m not seeing two plains forests in their radius, unless 89 is (the one we can’t see).

3. Why do you consider the floodplain more valuable then the grassland forests? The potential for a farm?

4. I certainly hope they’re building a worker, it will make the whole situation more active and fun , and it’s only one bad move or die role away from being our worker.

5. Thanks for the combat stats, I’ve been wondering about that. That 78% archer v. skirm in the open is going to make improving tiles very difficult for them. We should watch the hills though, they’re both (moderately) defensible, and hammer rich when improved.

Edit: P.S. Sorry for spamming a little, I have two days left at my current job, and next to nothing to do.

[Blake]

It appears that the 8-8 forest extends into 8-9, I assume it's a plain forest - I may well be wrong here though.

Floodplain actually varies in value due to the value of growth and whipping varying in value due to pop food cost, basically the smaller The Voice is the better the floodplains are. They aren't high priority when the choke first starts, unless Vox have decided to whip, in that case blocking the floodplain slows their growth.

[Velociryx]

Blake is a bit farther along than I am...I spy nine tiles, total, that I'd like to see us lock down (the high ground...all the hills they could work), the forests (all of them that are in the workable area), the cows, and the FP, but I've not yet come to a firm preference in terms of WHEN we occupy WHICH tiles...still working on that...

-=Vel=-

[Velociryx]

Offhand, with three units available to lock 'em down, I think my gut preference would be to leave Grog where he is (fortified on the gold hill), see the Skirmisher in the forest just south of "The Voice" and our Woody Warrior in the forest just west of that city.

This would not give us tremendous line of sight, but it would press them close, and give us compelling terrain advantages, and, with the Skirmisher adjacent to SB (who, IMO, would be the most likely target of any attack), he'd be able to crush any weakened archer who might be left outside.

It'd lure them to attack, and would be a fine opportunity to test their mettle and see what they'll do.

I'd also like to know what tiles THEY are working at present...this would tell us a lot about what they themselves value, and psychologically, if we deny *those* things to them, it could be quite damaging.

-=Vel=-