Mating habits of the Voxarian Warrior
I'm trying to figure out what the Vox warrior will do and how best to counter it.

Make sure I have the projected timeline right, I'm sort of new to the PBEM thing and getting the order of events right.
Next Turn:
(Vox): Vox move the warrior to Red1, in order to "threaten" EotS, they spy our worker doing something to the sheep with his pickaxe.
(GS): We note there's a Voxarian warrior across the river. EotS is configured to complete the skirmisher, we hit end turn and it pops out - our skirmisher completes BEFORE the vox warrior even gets a shot at EotS - we don't get to MOVE it, but it's there in the city preventing Vox from ever actually taking that 0.67% potshot. Am I right here?
2 turns ahead:
(Vox): Vox note a rather large and menacing skirmisher has appeared inside EotS and wisely decide to run away rather than fight at 1 : 7,091,087 odds! They move to Red2, in order to get away from the skirmisher and close to the sheep.
(GS): We note that the Voxarian Warrior is about to do something unmentionable to our worker, our skirmisher can move to Blue2, our worker either moves 2 under the skirmisher, or 1 onto the floodplain and builds a road for a turn.
3 turns ahead
(Vox): Vox are saddened to see that the worker hasn't hung around to play, they could make a move on the sheep, but the Skirmisher would get the oppurtunity to.. skirmish them. So they move to Red3, onto the desert hill.
(GS): We move our skirmisher and worker onto the sheep.
4 turns ahead
(Vox): Vox need to keep running - if they move 4 the skirmisher can immediately kill them, if they move 7 (onto the corner hill on the coast) our skirmisher can move to Blue4 and trap them - I don't think Vox knows the shape of the cost so they might well make this move in an attempt to escape to the north-west and draw our skirmisher as far away from The Voice as possible. If they move 8 instead, they can't be trapped.
(GS): We don't want the warrior to head west - it would lead our skirmisher even further from The Voice. So we move our skirmisher 7 (to blue4) so we can kill the warrior on any nearby hill tile. Blue4 is also an AMBUSH point - if Vox escapes to the north but then ever tries to move back into the hills, the skirmisher can kill them without prior warning.
Even further ahead:
Either the Vox warrior gets trapped on the coastal corner and is killed or it is forced to retreat into the foggy north (or return to The Voice). I believe it's not in our best interest to pursue them, they'll keep running to the ends of the earth or until killed by a barbarian. Instead we should keep the skirmisher at the ambush point where it can protect the worker - chasing the warrior only moves us further from The Voice anyway.
I expect that our 2nd skirmisher will be ready before the Vox warrior threat has passed so that's the one which will probably get to choke.
Important Conclusions:
1) Vox don't get a potshot at EotS.
2) Our worker will be disrupted - if Vox makes the right moves they'll be able to sacrifice their warrior to kill him (sarifice, because the skirmisher will get them next turn), Vox will surely take make this sacrifice so we need to move the worker.
3) Vox don't know the lay of the land and there's a good chance their warrior will get trapped and executed by our skirmisher, this is the clean solution. Also possible is them escaping into the foggy north (we can ambush them if they return). It's not possible for them to get past the skirmisher into the west. Worst case is losing the skirmisher in a fight - we have ~98% odds vs warrior on hill so it's not at all likely.
Should Vox move in a different direction after seeing the skirmisher this stuff wont apply, of course, I think they'll want to disrupt our worker though, unless they really want to be nice in the hope of getting a friendly alliance.
I'm trying to figure out what the Vox warrior will do and how best to counter it.

Make sure I have the projected timeline right, I'm sort of new to the PBEM thing and getting the order of events right.
Next Turn:
(Vox): Vox move the warrior to Red1, in order to "threaten" EotS, they spy our worker doing something to the sheep with his pickaxe.
(GS): We note there's a Voxarian warrior across the river. EotS is configured to complete the skirmisher, we hit end turn and it pops out - our skirmisher completes BEFORE the vox warrior even gets a shot at EotS - we don't get to MOVE it, but it's there in the city preventing Vox from ever actually taking that 0.67% potshot. Am I right here?
2 turns ahead:
(Vox): Vox note a rather large and menacing skirmisher has appeared inside EotS and wisely decide to run away rather than fight at 1 : 7,091,087 odds! They move to Red2, in order to get away from the skirmisher and close to the sheep.
(GS): We note that the Voxarian Warrior is about to do something unmentionable to our worker, our skirmisher can move to Blue2, our worker either moves 2 under the skirmisher, or 1 onto the floodplain and builds a road for a turn.
3 turns ahead
(Vox): Vox are saddened to see that the worker hasn't hung around to play, they could make a move on the sheep, but the Skirmisher would get the oppurtunity to.. skirmish them. So they move to Red3, onto the desert hill.
(GS): We move our skirmisher and worker onto the sheep.
4 turns ahead
(Vox): Vox need to keep running - if they move 4 the skirmisher can immediately kill them, if they move 7 (onto the corner hill on the coast) our skirmisher can move to Blue4 and trap them - I don't think Vox knows the shape of the cost so they might well make this move in an attempt to escape to the north-west and draw our skirmisher as far away from The Voice as possible. If they move 8 instead, they can't be trapped.
(GS): We don't want the warrior to head west - it would lead our skirmisher even further from The Voice. So we move our skirmisher 7 (to blue4) so we can kill the warrior on any nearby hill tile. Blue4 is also an AMBUSH point - if Vox escapes to the north but then ever tries to move back into the hills, the skirmisher can kill them without prior warning.
Even further ahead:
Either the Vox warrior gets trapped on the coastal corner and is killed or it is forced to retreat into the foggy north (or return to The Voice). I believe it's not in our best interest to pursue them, they'll keep running to the ends of the earth or until killed by a barbarian. Instead we should keep the skirmisher at the ambush point where it can protect the worker - chasing the warrior only moves us further from The Voice anyway.
I expect that our 2nd skirmisher will be ready before the Vox warrior threat has passed so that's the one which will probably get to choke.
Important Conclusions:
1) Vox don't get a potshot at EotS.
2) Our worker will be disrupted - if Vox makes the right moves they'll be able to sacrifice their warrior to kill him (sarifice, because the skirmisher will get them next turn), Vox will surely take make this sacrifice so we need to move the worker.
3) Vox don't know the lay of the land and there's a good chance their warrior will get trapped and executed by our skirmisher, this is the clean solution. Also possible is them escaping into the foggy north (we can ambush them if they return). It's not possible for them to get past the skirmisher into the west. Worst case is losing the skirmisher in a fight - we have ~98% odds vs warrior on hill so it's not at all likely.
Should Vox move in a different direction after seeing the skirmisher this stuff wont apply, of course, I think they'll want to disrupt our worker though, unless they really want to be nice in the hope of getting a friendly alliance.
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