Turn 23, 3120BC

[DeepO]

Originally posted by notyoueither
Blake's plan.

Why build settlers when there is a civ start to be had?

Because I'm not too optimistic when it comes to Vox' production power. Them going food now can indicate two things: they save up food for later production boosts, or they want to grow asap for better production. Both of them will also increase their ability to put more archers in their capital then us spitting at them.

We will need a large numerical advantage to overcome the defense bonusses of Voxian archers. Already, the city is at 40%... Our archers won't have the benefit of a promotion either.

So, my solution is to get better in production then them. Not only can we outclass them in numbers, but we also won't suffer from this war as bad as they will. Even if things would turn sour, we didn't throw away our future.

DeepO

[Blake]

Because I'm not too optimistic when it comes to Vox' production power. Them going food now can indicate two things: they save up food for later production boosts, or they want to grow asap for better production. Both of them will also increase their ability to put more archers in their capital then us spitting at them.

The weird thing is Vox isn't really going food. We know they have 2-1-0 and 1-2-0 tiles, yet they choose to work 2-0-1 tiles. They aren't getting food at the expense of hammers, they're getting commerce at the expense of hammers.

It appears they are trying to match our commerce rather than our production.

The way I see it there are two main possibilities:
1) They are simply mad and beelining to Monotheism or something equally foolhardy.
2) They are gambling on copper.

I'm still forced to wonder why they would choose to sacrifice hammers for a faster beeline, they could get out an extra warrior or two and use it to apply at least minimal pressure on us.

[DeepO]

Let's first of all assume Vox isn't stupid. Maybe some things don't work exactly as planned, but I think that much of what we'll see is some reaction to some plan in some situation we aren't fully aware off. Pure stupidity (like going for Monotheism) I'm not expecting.

Indeed, they choose beakers over hammers, but there might be a simple explanation for that. Beakers only come combined with food in forested lands, and for the moment they stil had the choice to not focus on hammers too much.

Why the beakers? BW might be an option, but I don't think that's likely. The moment they spotted us, they must have known we were too close to risk going for copper or horses before building a few archers. So my guess is exactly that: they were a couple of beakers short to get archery a turn earlier, right after their current warrior/scout build. (A scout is quite likely, BTW). If they were going to put some of those beakers in hammers, it wouldn't help, as they would lose them again in some prebuild they don't need.

Next on the list is probably BW, and this not for copper, but for forest chopping. We must try to prevent them from getting a worker in the field, everything will hinge on that.

BTW, they might choose commerce over hammers, but only because there is no commerce over food option. We see a plain hill now (unforested?), but no sign of e.g. gold or silver yet.

DeepO

[Blake]

Hmmm it does fit with my spreadsheet, projections indicate Vox hits 86 beakers (archery costs 85) and 15 hammers on the same turn. That should be uh.... next turn.

[Arrian]

So they will have a 2nd warrior next turn?

The only other things I could imagine them building are a worker or a barracks (the latter would be a huge gamble at this point, but offers a nice payoff).

-Arrian

[DeepO]

I'm guessing they'll have a scout ready next turn, and start immediately on an archer.

It's what I would do: spot GS to my side, 'spend' my initial scout trying to let GS believe I'm on their other side, go for archery, and right before I can start on archrs build another scout to not waste any opportunity. After all, the initial scout is tied up around EotS (well, he was, for as long as it worked), so he's not popping huts and meeting others.


If they build a scout, I'll be even more in favour of a settler after skirm 2. We don't have the resources to go looking for other teams right now, an advantage we'll have to cede to Vox. So if they b uild a scout and meet somebody, we build a second city and crush them before that somebody can get any ideas on interfering.

DeepO

[DeepO]

Come to think of it: a scout would be ideal for us as well. If they've got a second warrior, there's a good chance they'll try to kill Grog. With a scout, they can't because if they fail, they lost the game.

DeepO

[DeepO]

some more thoughts.

What will be the least in ratio for a skirmishers vs archers race? My guess is that it will need to be higher than 2 to 1.

The reason is that we will have to face the possibility to lose skirms in choking. Especially if they bait us, they can effectively trade a warrior for a skirm.

So, our production needs to be higher than twice theirs... growing to size 5 will be one piece of that puzzle, I'm sure. But at size 4 they will have 6 hpt as well, given the information we now have. That's exactly half of what size 5 (with loads of worker improvements) will give us.

So, Blake, I'm afraid your plan needs a little more tweaking. Can't chops add more beakers than mining? Can't we get to more than 12 hpt with a second city? Any other things we miss right now, and which can still improve?

DeepO

[Ennet]

My bet is on a warrior rather than a scout, for several reasons. First, i hardly belive they would think we were actually going to kill the scout, whereas it would seem unessesary to have two scouts in the field at the same time, even if one where momentarily tied up.. secondly, specially in MP i would personally not gamble not building a second warrior when i knew an opponent to be that close.. and last, i think their tactics where pretty hostile to us right from the start, not making contact with us but circling our border to mislead us and not sending a greeting when we first met. it indicates they at least held a war with us in the near future as a valid option another reason to build another warrior