3920 - Kgb

[Dominae]

Originally posted by Aginor
Another thought - if I had a hot commerce start, would I not want to get to Writing ASAP? ESPECIALLY if I am Liz, and I am Philo, and I can spit out a GS from a nice fat commerce start on the coast. Fastest beeline is Myst->Mediation->Priesthood->Writing. It's a gamble, but it would pretty much guarantee them tech dominance, might get them an early religion, and would almost certainly get them Taoism from lightbulbing Philo later. Not a bad state of affairs if you decide to go vertical out of a strong start (suppose, for instance, that Liz is coastal with gold/silver/gems handy *shudder*).

By the way, I think we should go Writing ASAP. We have a lot of research potential and a lot of things on our shopping list, but that does not mean that a Library in our cap is a luxury. Our sims should revolve around three key goals: two expansions, sufficient defense, and Libraries in our three cities. If we can get all that done in record time we are a (the?) team to beat.

[Aginor]

Originally posted by Blake
Hmmmm. As a rule people either research meditation extremely early, or rather late. Maybe near the end of time if they got Poly instead. It's not going to get discounted like AH or BW does.

*shrug* If one extra team goes up to Writing through the Priesthood side of the tree and hits Meditation before we do, we still benefit. Also, if it turns out that there's race on for Poly, we can always head up through Poly rather than Meditation (taking advantage of that discount), wait until we have a religion to even bother with Meditation (or trade for it later), and make a couple more techs available in the long run.

Now wait a sec... how does a fin leader get a +11 comm... the only way, is to found on a comm special on a river. And work a 0 commerce tile.
A non-fin civ can get it by working a +2 comm tile, or founding on a river comm special + working a 1 comm tile.

The 12 has to be Financial, the non-Financial is the 11. Thought this was self-evident; however, as you have observed there is a possible case for a Financial civ with 11 commerce. Let me hit that in the next point.

Arrrgh Aginor I don't get your logic for why the 11 comm one must be creative. Any leader can get any commerce start within the realm of probability (ie from 9 to 12). Do you have it right or did you not account for city tile commerce variance?

Never have had a start, or even seen one, where I founded/would on a Commerce tile on a river as a Financial civ. That would be an odd start indeed. (Incense doesn't generate on rivers that I've seen - such a desert tile becomes a flood plain. Anything else on a river is going to be more profitable to work, particularly long-run.)

It's theoretically possible that a Financial civ: founded on a Commerce tile on a river and is working a food special (eg: Corn) on a Grassland that's not a river, or is working a 2/1 Forest...but is that a probable move? Given that Cathy founded turn 1, it would have to be AC or Sara that is the 11 (since such a city site cannot be masked turn 1). Then the 12 would either have to be a commerce-masking Cathy who realized after turn one that they had the march on Buddhism and switched, or the other of the AC/Liz grouping.

I would still argue that the 11 is almost certainly a non-Financial civ, and ALL non-Financial civs in the game are Creative. It's probably the team that swapped from the 9, and they probably: worked a Grassland Forest or similar 2/1/0 for one turn for the extra hammer and then swapped over to a 3/0/2 Oasis tile (thus growing in the same time frame, masking commerce and stealing a hammer) or a 2/0/2 freshwater tile/Fish (deciding they wanted their first tech more in further discussion than they wanted a Warrior, or just a flat-out misplay). Such an 11 doesn't need religion. Again, there's the tenuous assumption of rationality here (Banana) on what they do, but it would seem likely that Myst will not be the first order of business on the 11's list.

The alternate case you're suggesting runs as follows: We had a [10,10,9] start with 3 civs. The 9 switched from a 2/1/0 tile to a 2/0/1 tile or a 3/0/1 tile on turn 2. Sara and Liz found, one of whom is working a 3 Commerce tile, and one of whom is founded on a river/commerce tile and working a 3/0/0 or a 2/1/0. Both of them burned a turn in order to increase commerce; both of them then have a high probability of hunting a religion.

Subcase here is: Cathy is the 9, and switched to a 3/0/3 or 2/0/3 after realizing that Buddhism was a lock. Sara and Liz found; one is the 11, and one is a 10.

This may be a logic puzzle which can be solved on the basis of food/hammer output variance across the two turns we have info on; I'll take a look at it when I get home. I still feel the former case is most likely, but I'll have to see if I can actually eliminate any of them.

And on the topic of med/poly; I think it's also likely that any other team who decides to go religion, but don't have a great comm start, will go for Poly instead. If we try to race the slow guys, we lose because of player order and stuff.

I tend to agree; that said, if we're the second team to Mysticism, we've probably got the march on the competition except for the 12 team, and Hunting and Poly start looking solid. If we're the third or later we've got a problem, and it's time to re-evaluate.

And I think the question is: What is it worth to get our scout out 5 turns earlier? It's obviously worth something.

+/- 20 gold, probably, from huts on average. (calculated as blue-sky probability of getting an extra hut by the chance of getting gold by the chance of getting gold; the possibility of tech discounted as highly remote). Which is a decent reward.

While I'm willing to wait and see I really don't think we have a whole lot to lose by dedicating ourselves fully to the religion race.

Then again... the logic that we're either going to lose outright, or get it regardless even with researching hunting first... is looking extremely solid.

True, but there are two possible paths to a religion. You're right that in the case of Meditation we're either going to get it regardless or lose, I think. Poly is less clear.

[Aginor]

Originally posted by Dominae
By the way, I think we should go Writing ASAP. We have a lot of research potential and a lot of things on our shopping list, but that does not mean that a Library in our cap is a luxury. Our sims should revolve around three key goals: two expansions, sufficient defense, and Libraries in our three cities. If we can get all that done in record time we are a (the?) team to beat.

I'm thinking Pottery first; if we were Liz and we could pop a GS, a Library is really, really hot; here I think that getting the Cottages up before the Library is the way to go to maximize early research.

I agree that Writing is going to be a priority, but I'm thinking that building #1 is a Granary, and building #2 is a Library in the capital. Further, I'm thinking that the Library is going to get whipped 10 turns after the Settler build.

[Aginor]

*sigh* Double post, deleted.

[Aginor]

Originally posted by vulture
However, our lead rivals in this regard have 21000 sq km. Do they really have 21 tiles?

Finally resolved this one: 3 Creative civs settled prior to our first turn. At 4 Culture/turn, and having played 3 turns (4000, 3960, 3920), the game shows their border expansions already having occurred when the game gets to us (since they have first mover advantage vis a vis us).

Next problem to be resolved: 12,333 average:

From mudhut's interpretation of commerce set, the equation for rival average should then be: (21+21+21+9+9+0)/6 = 81/6 = 13.5, or 13,500 square miles. 13.666 if the Horde get credit for 1 tile for the Settler (can't check atm, but I believe that they do not.)

Clearly the game is dividing by six; division by 7 would leave a different remainder than what we observe (.333) so that part of the explanation seems to hold.

OK, so that leaves only one possibility: somebody's coastal. Presumably ocean tiles don't count towards land area controlled. Actual land tiles = 12.333*6 = 74. So 7 (or 8) tiles are water.

First order of business, then: check 3960 after we founded to see if any of the initial founders had water in their radius. If all 3 display 9 tiles (ie: we are tied for #1 in demographics) then it's very probable that the coastal tiles are divvied up amongst multiple civs (since it's improbable/impossible that Liz or Qin moved the capital in order to settle with 7-8 coastal tiles in the initial city radius). If not, one of them may have brought a ton of ocean in with the expansion, and Liz/Qin may not necessarily be coastal at all.

Second - with the culture expansion shown it is indeed highly probable that the answer to the shifting 9 commerce team/11 commerce team riddle is a non-Financial that picked up a two-commerce square. Perhaps an Oasis or a river commerce tile. The game then automatically redid their worked tile as superior to whatever they were working before. Be interesting to see if they're still 11 next turn; if not and we've got a 9 again, that would virtually confirm that they're trying to max hammers. And if THAT's the case, I bet it's someone that's got Hunting already and is trying to get another Scout on the ground or get an actual Warrior to defend the capital ASAP in case a wandering Woody x2 Warrior shows up.

Alternate explanation: Civ in question that was the 9 civ was working a 2/1/0 Forest. Boundary expansion brings a Silk/Spices/other Commerce special Forest (think they get the +1 commerce regardless of river here, again game is not available to verify) into the radius, bumping commerce from 9 to 10, resolving that mystery. Then one of the Financials that founded is the 11, and either the other Financial or Cathy is the 12 (possibly an Oasis in border expansion?)

Which brings into the discussion the remote possibility that the commerce bumps are *totally benign* belonging to two Creative civs that aren't dying for a religion, that the two civs that need religion the most (Sara/AC) are stuck at 10 just like us and that we actually are in the driver's seat on Buddhism.

Logic puzzle gets even more complicated. *sigh*

[Blake]

[QUOTE] Originally posted by Aginor

Never have had a start, or even seen one, where I founded/would on a Commerce tile on a river as a Financial civ. That would be an odd start indeed. (Incense doesn't generate on rivers that I've seen - such a desert tile becomes a flood plain. Anything else on a river is going to be more profitable to work, particularly long-run.)

You havn't? *frown*. Wine's the main one that spawns all the freaking time on rivers. Fur is another altough possibly not on this map type. Gold ofcourse is often found on rivers, but I don't think anyone would found on it. Silk will spawn on rivers, Dye and spice will too (tho those latter two I'd rarely found on)..
Wines on plains (+1 food +2 commerce) or silks (+3 commerce), I found on the suckers given the choice. They don't give a fantastic amount of commerce. Found on these tiles + work cottage > work these tiles + found "on cottage", that's the fact.

Starts with comm special on river are unusual, but I wouldn't say unusual enough to not be probable that at least one other team had the option of founding on a commerce special on river. From experience, this sort of start happens like 1 in 4, to 1 in 8 games...
*runs a few trials of continents script, counts the comm specials on rivers*
2/9: Plains silk forest, plains spice forest.
2/9: plains wine, plains silk forest
2/9: plains wine, plains spice forest

I'm noticing a definite trend. 20-25% chance of getting a plains comm special on river, and it's often forest, thus taking a turn to settle on.

[Blake]

Second - with the culture expansion shown it is indeed highly probable that the answer to the shifting 9 commerce team/11 commerce team riddle is a non-Financial that picked up a two-commerce square. Perhaps an Oasis or a river commerce tile. The game then automatically redid their worked tile as superior to whatever they were working before. Be interesting to see if they're still 11 next turn; if not and we've got a 9 again, that would virtually confirm that they're trying to max hammers. And if THAT's the case, I bet it's someone that's got Hunting already and is trying to get another Scout on the ground or get an actual Warrior to defend the capital ASAP in case a wandering Woody x2 Warrior shows up.

Well that makes sense.

Btw what on earth is with Soldiers? Shouldn't it be equal ?

[Aginor]

I always seem to get Wine on bare ground and hills. Odd, must be an artifact of a limited case set. I agree that Wine's junk, of course.

Next question to be answered in trials - how often are civs spawning with visibility on those specials? And, of those cases, how often would you found and then proceed to work a 2/1/0 or 3/0/0? Still seems like a low probability case set on the face of it, particularly given the river assumption. However, since we've also got a sim request on min/max/average closeness of start for nearest civ, I can kill two birds with one stone this evening and run 50ish map trials to address both questions. (Thank god for the new comp I built and its 4200+ and 10,000 RPM HDD, otherwise it'd take the rest of my natural life.)

Still thinking that the border expansion (see last post) has a lot to do with it, but I'd best reserve judgment until I can sim this.

[Aginor]

Originally posted by Blake

Well that makes sense.

Btw what on earth is with Soldiers? Shouldn't it be equal ?

Edit: Interesting - the Wheel counts, eh? Odd.

[Blake]

Okay, I hunted down the workings soldiers in the SDK, Python and XML.
A warrior is worth 1K.
Mining is worth 2K.
The Wheel is worth 4K.
Hunting is worth 2K.

Everything else is worth 0 (this includes Scouts)

So we are 7K.
The Horde are 6K.
Banana are 5K.
Vox and merc are 4K
Sara and AC are 3K.

Sweet diddly-damn. The opponent average matches the demographics, must be right.

Well, no-one has popped a warrior, mining, hunting or wheel, yet. Or AH (2), BW (8), Archery (6) or Sailing (2), for that matter. It occurs to me that soldiers probably has little value, as the same info can be gleaned from tech costs? Then again it might be useful to track general army size or something.

[Aginor]

Demographics observations from 3960:

Commerce discussed above, 10,10,9 drawn from the fact that putting us at 9 commerce ranks us at 3.

Hammers: Rival best 2, average 0. So 2/2/2 is out. 2/1/1 or 2/2/1 are the possibles here. Founding and adjusting hammers to 1 shows us ranked 3rd, therefore hammer situation is 2/2/1.

Food: Rival best is 5. Adjusting food to 4 shows us at 2nd. Adjusting to 3 shows us at 4th. So rival food counts are 5/4/4.

Land: Best 9000, average 4333. Our land area is zero, so unfounded civs don't count. 4.333*6 = 26. So one of those civs had a water tile of some sort in the starting radius (expected land value = 27 for 3 civs). Most probably that is an inland lake which is their only source of freshwater, though it could be a bay yielding ocean access.

What's all that mean? Discounting the possibility that one of these three rivals founded on a Commerce special on a river: as of 3960, someone is working a grassland grain/livestock special on a river or a flood plain (5/1/10). That leaves the data as 4/2/10 and 4/2/9. The 4/2/10 would be a grassland-river Ivory, plains-river grain/livestock tile, or grassland-Forest-Commerce special tile. The 4-2-9 start is a classic grassland-with-a-shield tile (for our purposes, grassland Forest, or 4/2/10 permutation without the river).

It's also possible that the 5/1/10 founded on a Commerce special on a river and is working a 3/0/0 tile, or that the 4/2/10 founded on a Commerce special on a river and is working a 2/1/0 tile. I'll discuss that in more detail in a moment.

(I'm assuming that none of these civs founded on a Plains Hill; in my experience, if you want that you gotta burn the first turn to move onto one.)

Continuing to work on the logic puzzle with the 3920 data:

First thing to note: Liz is the ONLY civ with Fishing at the start. ALL other civs have some permutation on Hunting, Mining, Ag, and the Wheel. This limits some possibilities - although it turns out that no one can possibly be working a water tile, interestingly enough.

Commerce: 12,11,10,10,10,10,0 as noted above.

Food: Putting us at 4 drops us to 5th and at 3 to 6th. Distribution must be 5,5,5,5,5,4,0 across all civs.

Hammers: Rival max 2, we're 4th with 1, all founded civs must have 1 hammer. Therefore distribution is 2,2,2,1,1,1,0.

Land: As noted above, 7 water tiles. Border expansion for the civ with 1 water tile could conceivably bring 6 water tiles into the starting radius with precisely the right layout of the land; possible, but improbable. My judgment is that 2 rivals (at least) have water within their borders at this time. Impossible to tell whether border expansion did or did not cause this; however, best guess is that either AC or Sara is coastal.

OK, further things that we know ex ante:

The 12 commerce start can only have 2 hammers if it founded on a Plains Hill.

There is no way to get a 3/1/x tile unimproved. We are one of the 1 hammer civs. Our rivals have hammers 2,2,2,1,1,0 but food 5,5,5,5,4,0.

The ONLY way this distribution works (again assuming that none of the first 3 founding teams actually started out on a Plains Hill to begin with) is if BOTH Sara and AC are on Plains Hills. Then they can each work a 3 food tile, and removing them from the distribution yields food 5,5,4 and hammers 2,1,1, which we can account for by a 2/1/1 tile (as above in 3960) or 2/1/0 tile and Commerce special-river start, and two 3/0/1+ tiles.

So now we know why Sara and AC delayed - namely, the Plains Hill. And we also know that they're the only ones with that type of terrain.

Blake, I gotta admit that the Plains Hill on a river with a commerce special is looking like a longshot explanation for the 11, though I cannot discount it. (2/2/3 capital working a 3/0/0 non-river grain/livestock tile is the only way 11 works.)

OK, next problem: Commerce. There's nothing that can conceivably yield 2/1/2 (or 2/1/3 to Financial) to anybody, so the 2/1/1 team is exactly that: 2/1/1, yielding 4/2/10.

Leaves us with 12,11,10,10 to account for with a 5/2, a 5/2, a 5/1, and a 5/1. The 12 HAS to be Financial, unless it's a non-Financial founded on a Commerce special river that went from working a 2/1/0 or 3/0/0 to a 3/0/2 (Oasis) on border expansion. Farfetched, though not impossible. It's almost certainly Cathy, Liz or Qin.

We know that IF it's Cathy she's 5/1/12 and she shifted from either 4/2/9, 4/2/10 or 5/1/10 at border expansion. In other words, she had an Oasis that was unworked once the border expansion landed, and the governor AI instantly shifted to it (and for good reason).

Alternately, it's Liz or Qin. Again, it has to be an Oasis (only way to get 3/0/3), and in this case it has to be 1 space away from the Plains Hill. Alternately, the Plains Hill had a Commerce special and a river and that civ is working a 3/0/1. Either way - quite fortuitous, don't you think?

OK, what about the 11? Could be Commerce special river Liz/Qin working a 3/0/0, as noted. Or it could be that a Commerce special-river Creative, non-Financial civ got a border expansion from 3/0/0 to 3/0/1, or from 2/1/0 to 2/1/1. Or that civ could be on a normal founding tile and have caught an Oasis with border expansion.

Conclusions: Most probably either: a) Liz or Sara is on a Plains Hill next to an Oasis and is rushing to Buddhism or b) Cathy had the Oasis in the first border expansion. I'm actually leaning b), as *someone* had their food count jump from 4 to 5. The 11 is IMO also driven by the border expansion, with additional data to follow in the next turn which may or may not substantiate the conclusions on the 11. It seems that at least one of our border expanders was in the desert, and that they shifted from a flood plains to an Oasis or from a 2/1/0 to an Oasis. In any case, Liz and Sara built on Plains Hills.

So, with all of that analysis, I'm feeling a bit better about the Meditation path. We'll know more after Sara and AC get their border expansions, of course.

[Mudhut]

Aginor, you are my hero

Has anybody recorded all this in a location other than this thread? Just thinking it would be nice to have it all laid out for further analysis in an easily-referable location somewhere.

I'm thinking a big momma spreadsheet...

[Aginor]

Can work on that. Present project: Starting spot simulation, 50 iterations, generating 350 observations (Prince, standard map, 7 civs). Some assumptions above were revealed to be bad at 1/3 completion, and others were validated:

1) You CAN start on a Plains Hill. It's unlikely (3/105 cases thus far), but it does happen. Have to rework 3960 segment to cope...which complicates things because AC and Sara don't both have to be on Plains Hills - one of the initial founding civs can conceivably be one of the two Plains Hills civs. Which then makes a 5/2 first turn for that team a possibility.

2) I have NOT seen any instances where there was a commerce tile on a river on a Plains hill. The only thing that can conceivably generate there (I believe) is Wine. We can probably toss that as a possibility. However, it's still possible that one of Sara/AC moved to a Plains hill and the other moved onto a Commerce special to found.

3) The ratio of starts where a Commerce tile is available on a river to found the first city on is 1/5 (21/105) at this point. I've operationalized that concept as follows: no more than 2 squares away from start in any direction (even if it takes 2 full moves to get there), must be something other than Gold or Silver (I'm assuming no one is dumb enough to found on either of those.) Silk, Spices and Wine are all fair game. Incense also would be, but I've yet to see a Plains tile on a river with it.

I've posted preliminary estimates on the 'number of spaces from rival' in the thread on where to move the Warrior.

[Aginor]

Edit: I've started using the top post in this thread to detail what we KNOW, and when we will KNOW more. Suppositions stay buried in the thread.

Final numbers on 50 trials (n=350, 7 civs * 50 trials):

Settlers started on Plains Hills 26 times. Several instances where this happened twice in a game; therefore in slightly less than half the games someone starts on a Plains Hill initially.

Commerce specials on rivers were within two squares of a civ's Settler start 72 times. (Counted specials: Dye, Silk, Spices, Wine, Incense (happened once on a Plains); specials not counted: Gold, Silver (assumption is that no sane player would found on these, as the bonus for improving the tile is too strong))

Commerce special on a Plains Hill on a river within 2 squares of a civ's start happened once. I'm inclined to disregard this as an explanation for what's going on.

We know that: two of our rivals are founded on Plains Hills. We further know that at least two of our rivals are either founded on Commerce specials on rivers or working either a Commerce special on a river or an Oasis. We further know that Cathy is NOT founded on a Commerce special.

We know that all of our rivals but one are working food specials, flood plains or Oases. We can surmise that the one that is not working an Oasis is the one working a 2/1/1 tile (although it could be a non-Financial founded on a river Commerce special working a 2/1/0).


OK, when will we know more? Backchecking 4000 supports the idea that none of the first 3 teams switched their production from turn 1 to turn 2; therefore, observed changes (from 9 to 10 and from 4 to 5) are due to border expansion.

The team with constant 5 food grows 7 played turns from the start of the game, in BC 3760 (it will have grown by the time the turn reaches us). A team MUST have jumped from 4 to 5 due to border expansion; another team MAY have jumped, leaving either AC or Sara with the 4 food (in which case I believe that civ would have to be on a Commerce tile).

Any team that jumped from 4 to 5 food will have 6 food in their bank by the end of 3920. 15 more food will accumulate in 5 turns, and that city will grow in 3720.

AC and Sara accumulate 5 culture per turn, and they move after us. By the time 3920 got to us they already had accumulated 2 culture. Therefore, AC and Sara will have a border expansion showing in 4 turns, when 3760 reaches us. If either is currently running 5 food (and at least one is), that civ have grown when 3680 reaches us.

Finally, the Horde has to found sometime. We can add those calculations when that time comes.


Further supposition:

1) It's probably a good bet that all 3 of the civs that just got a border expansion have been placed on 3-food tiles by the AI. We can confirm that if there's movement away from one of those 3-food tiles in 3880, but I doubt that there would be. Everyone probably wants to get to size 2 ASAP.

We can also tell whether or not both the initial civs went from four food to five by whether or not we get two civs whose food/hammers/commerce increase in 3720. If this is the case, then both of those civs running 4 food originally picked up a 3 food tile in the border expansion. Further, we are lucky enough to be able to distinguish this from the 3760 border expansion that AC and Sara are going to get and the 3760 growth for the initial 5 food civ. If one of those two civs did NOT pick up a 5 food tile, the unlucky 4 food civ would not grow until 3640.

2) If this is correct, that would leave either Sara or AC as the civ that is running 4 Food at this time. That would probably mean that this civ is founded on a Commerce special on the river. They could then be working a 2/1/0 for 4/2/11 or a 2/1/1 for 4/2/12. The 2/1/1 explanation would make a LOT of sense given that such Commerce specials often spawn together in grassland Forests.

Another 4 food, 12 commerce explanation is that either Sara or AC moved to be in range of grassland Gems on a river. And the doomsday scenario there is that they were fortunate enough to catch a Plains Hill in range of their start and also that river grassland Gems tile, which I have to admit would be a hot start.

3) If AC/Sara founded on a Commerce special rather than a Plains Hill, then the other of the grouping and one of the initial civs are on Plains Hills, are working 3-0-1 tiles and are presently 5-2-10.

What strikes me as inconsistent about that scenario is the initial production for 4000/3960 - if the team on the Plains Hill was 5-2-10 all along, that means that the other two civs were 4-1-10 and 4-2-9. 4-1-10 is a pretty iffy move; most 'fair' starts would have at least a 2-1-0 tile in the radius. Not sure that I buy a 4-1-10 tile.

If the Plains hill team was 5-2-9 working a 3/0/0, then the other two civs are 4-2-10 and 4-1-10, which strikes me as even more suspect given that the 4-2-10 only resolves on grassland Ivory or grassland Forest Commerce specials. Add that to someone without a 2-1-0 or a 3-0-0 and you've got a pretty unlikely scenario.

If the Plains hill team was 4-2-10, they're working a 2-0-1 and that strikes me as a poor move, although the other results start making more sense (5-1-10 and 4-2-9). And I'm not buying that the Plains Hill team was 4-2-9.

So it still seems to me most likely that AC or Sara are our Plains Hill suspects working 3/0/1 or 3/0/3 tiles. If that's the case, one of the initial civs has the Commerce special and/or Oases are being worked out there.

[Hot Mustard]

Okay, it's time I expressed something.......Wow - that's an impressive pile of information already collected!

Thanks for all the time and effort spent!