Turn 76, 1000BC

[Krill]

Uh. not per se, but BTS shouldn't affect Vanilla.

[Arrian]

edit: nevermind. Nothing to see here. Move along.

-Arrian

[Krill]

I know, but I was trying to divert attention from that.

[Hot Mustard]

Posted in poll thread:

Originally posted by Hot Mustard
Expecting that the crowd drawn in yesterday will check back in this evening, we should get a clear picture of the team's collective opinion and be able to play it later this evening. I'm going to go out for dinner with the missus, but I'll be back.

I'm hoping to play the turn somewhere between 10pm and 12pm EST.

[Blake]

Press the attack because it's now a 40% chance, and there's only 25h at stake now. On average, we lose 15h, with a 40% chance of getting all of Vox. Even 40% of the cost of the freebie worker is 24h, nearly more than the cost of the entire skirmisher.

The maths overwhelmingly favor making this attack.

[Dominae]

Darn, I missed most of this.

It's pretty clear that expected value compels us to attack, even now that we only have a 40% chance of victory.

We're about to lose our choke, though, and that Settler gives them a way out of their predicament.

Nevertheless, our economy is better, we have Axemen in the field right now, and Catapults are soon to follow. We still definitely have the upper hand.

What we've lost is the option to play it out patiently (that is, wait for Cats) for a minimum of risk. Had I seen this post earlier I would probably have brought this up because it's ultimately what we decided to do when we had the "rush with Axemen or wait for Catapults" debate. I still favor that decision because we're in this game for the long haul.

Breaking the choke also gives them more diplomatic currency: if they can convince the other teams that they (Vox) are no longer a non-factor they might start making deals. If I were AC I would seriously consider this.

On the plus side, with two cities it will be relatively easy to re-establish a choke, and I'm confident we can keep them off metals. Basically we'll have to keep focusing on MFG instead of switching to GNP.

Unless, of course, the third Skirm wins...

[Solomwi]

Press the attack. Godspeed to you, good Materazzi!

[Dominae]

The lesson learned here (for me at least) is that you always want all your units in close proximity to your choke. You're never in a great risk of a counter-choke when you do this (assuming only two players) because of travel time. Vox might have forced to rethink or Worker orders, maybe even pillaged a tile or road, but in my mind that's nothing compared to keeping them firmly under our boot.

(I should say that I haven't been following all that closely, but weren't our Axemen idle for a couple of turns?).

[Arrian]

Not really. One axe hung out on the roaded hill for one turn, IIRC, before moving into Winestrom. Maybe two turns, max.

-Arrian

[vmxa1]

Too bad we did not get a little slack form the RNG. Maybe the third one is the charm.

[notyoueither]

Originally posted by Hot Mustard


Ah, you must be Krill's second - he knew your post was coming I guess.

I'm getting a bad feeling too - the RNG can be streaky.

It is streaky.

The 'odds' displayed are not the real odds over a stretch..

Cut and run.

[Hot Mustard]

RIP Materazzi

Followed the desire of the majority. Apparently we had not yet learned our lesson from the goodie huts - the RNG is not with us, but against us. In future we must stack all odds possible against it, and not take any gambles, no matter how 'reasonable' they seem.

This is a painful loss - let us turn the page into the new millenium and remember the lesson learned well.

[Hot Mustard]

Re: Turn 76, 1000BC

Turn 76, 1000BC

Units

Warriors
Spinebreaker: 1.1/2 9/10 Exp (W2). Heal (5 turns)
Thug: 2/2, 0/2 Exp. Forted (EotS)

Skirmishers
Zidane: 4/4, 0/2 Exp Attacked The Voice and lost, Donegeal 1.8/3.0
Materazzi: 4/4, 0/2 Exp. Attacked The Voice and lost, Donegeal 0.9/3.0
Beckham: 4/4, 0/2 Exp. Attacked The Voice and lost, Donegeal 2.6/3.0
Cantona: 4/4 0/2 Exp. Forted on Forest Hill
Schumacher: 4/4 0/2 Exp. Forted on Hill

Axemen
Axemen I*: Forted in Winestrom
Axemen II*: Fort on road hub

Scouts
Scout I: Moved 1-4

Workers
Worker I: Moved 6, Farm
Worker II: Moved 3, Cottage


Science
Return to 100%

Current (29/turn +2): Masonry complete, resume Mathematics (236/357) (4 turns)


Cities

Eye of the Storm (Size 5)
WF: 1, 44, 74, 7, 78 (same)
Growth (-/turn): 0/30
Production (12/turn): Building Axeman (12/35) (2 turns)

Winestrom (Size 3)
WF: 2, 4, 7 (growth)
Growth (6/turn): 1/26 (5 turns)
Production (1/turn): Granary (22/60) (38 turns)

Taz City (Size 1)
WF: 2 (change to farm)
Growth (4/turn): 21/22 (1 turn)
Production (1/turn): Skirmisher (7/25) (18 turns)


In-Game Diplomacy
Offered Polytheism and Masonry to AC (Yang) for Iron Working

[notyoueither]

****.

I trust we've heard the last of 'give it a go'.

[Solomwi]

Donegeal is now at 0.9/3.0, HM. 29 HP. Materazzi won the first two rounds, then lost four straight.