What happens after the war?

[Velociryx]

Or....not. I mean, I'm willing to do it your way. I already said that.

You're not willing to do it mine/DeepO's, and I think that an ideological rift of any kind would be bad for the team. There's no real need for divisiveness on this issue. In the larger scheme of things, it's just not that big a deal (at most, we're talking about something like seven dead axemen....it's just not that big an issue).

So, if you're that vehemently against it, then yes...I think for the good of the team, we should do it your way.

Using your own maths, I feel that I've demonstrated that it is a) quite possible to do, and b) without downside or risk (or at the very least, pointed out assumptions in your line of thinking that incorrectly make the all-axe approach seem less certain than it is), but....I can't do any more than I've already done to convince you, and I'm not sure I should try. Your mind seems made up, and that's cool. No hard feelings from me, and I don't think anybody else has a bug up their butt to kill them with axes, so it's all good. We can wait for cats, okay?

I do hope, however, that the debate has at least brought to light the notion that the most effecient play, hammer-wise is not always the only, or even the best way to do a thing. Hammers preserved is a good measure of efficiency, I agree.

Speed, however, has its advantages as well.

But...I'm perfectly willing to support the Catapult idea.

Let's do a minimal choke and expand peacefully and all that jazz.

Let's stop spinning our wheels debating WHAT to do, and get down to the much more important business of HOW to best do it.

-=Vel=-

[Blake]

Originally posted by Velociryx
No, I get you, and you're right...it will take longer to get in excess of 2x hammers on scene (which would be necessary for the win) than it would be to get 3x total production, however, your initial plan (post 59) assumed only double total production, not triple, did it not? (and even if it did not, it assumed 10 turns of travel time, which implies no roads, which could cut that time nearly in half and radically change the equation).

Actually 60 turns was the generous assumption Wines would produce 10hpt - over 3.5x total production.

It's not possible to EVER get triple hammers on the scene with only double hpt .

Take for arguments sake, 50 turns.
Vox generates in that time, 6hpt, 300h total.

Okay say we generate 12hpt, but we are 6 turns behind them.
In 44 turns of production, we have... 528h on the scene, which is 1.76x.

Get it?

With only double hpt, we can never get double hammers at The Voice. The mathematics FORBID it.

Okay. Try a realistic triple-production scenario.

EOTS is 6 + 8 = 14 turns behind - from travel time and time sunk into settler. After that it generates 12 hpt. In 50 (36) turns it generates 432h.
Wines is founded on turn 16 or so, so it has 34 turns of production. Lets say 6hpt for arguments sake. 204 total. I've been kind and ignored travel time for Wines.

Combined we have 204+432 = 636h, which is just barely 2x Vox.

That's at 50 turns.

And just barely 2x isn't good odds.

I cant make this any simpler.

You're not willing to do it mine/DeepO's, and I think that an ideological rift of any kind would be bad for the team. There's no real need for divisiveness on this issue. In the larger scheme of things, it's just not that big a deal (at most, we're talking about something like seven dead axemen....it's just not that big an issue).

It's not about ideology! It's about the numbers!

The numbers say that Vox do have the option of making an Axe rush Not Work. The numbers can't say whether Vox WILL take that option, but comitting to such a strategy when there's chance - outside of our control - that it will Not Work, is foolhardy.

I am willing to Axerush, but I'm not willing to comit to Axe rushing while it's still a pure gamble based on how Vox responds.

[Velociryx]

See above...the assumption you're still making is that Vox will play the perfect defensive game and won't make any mistakes or get impatient over a more than SIXTY TURN span of time.

Nobody goes that long without a screwup.

Nobody.

For the scenario to work out with dubious chances of success, this assumption is quite necessary, and IF we make that assumption, I agree (again...still... ).

However, as I've said before, they've not played a flawless game so far, and yes...I think it's a reasonable assumption that they're human, and as such, will not suddenly begin to play flawlessly now.

But that's okay. I concede the point. Under optimal, ideal, no mistake play for the next sixty turns by our opposition, yes. The numbers indicate it's a crapshoot.

We could fault each other for our assumptions till the cows come home, but I still don't think we'll bring each other 'round, so why not call a truce and do the cats?

-=Vel=-

[Blake]

Actually I'm quite willing to take a wait and see approach - and as I said, I wont be surprised if Vox hits wine city VERY hard as a way to go out with a bang rather than a whimper. It's a way to say "Well fine, take us, but we want at least one good fight first".

I don't mind comitting to the cats strat now (it seems extremely solid), but nor do I see the need.

BTW. It's not exactly difficult to pump out archer after archer and then hit "f" for each one... it's not a strat which can be screwed up. It's entirely a matter of will.

[DeepO]

I like the discussion so far, even opinions differ everyone is getting a better feel for the situation. Sometimes it's good to get pressured into little corners

Not enough time to comment tonight, but one thing: there might be a point in time when we can achieve 2.5x the hammers at the Voice then them, and that's reasonably close. Blake, I love your out of the box thinking on the fur settling, and we should probably do it soon anyway, even if not during the war. So what about my 'crazy' idea:

Upgrade warriors. Build the wines, time it so we end production in EotS in ~33 turns, include 4 or 5 warriors and pop to oblivion. Everything moves to the Voice. When the warriors are at the last piece of land around wines, upgrade them (there should be enough gold for at least 4 more axes), and attack.

If I've got a good feel for the math, that should put us at 8 skirms, 17 axes or something close... it might be even more with chops. What amount of archers are Vox going to have in 45 turns? 14 with whipping as crazy? that's 795h vs 350h, or 2.3x. We should win it, although RNG is always a factor. And we might even improve on that result. Roads towards the front will decrease the 10-turn lag we're facing now.

The problem is in the economics, of course. If we've got 20+ units running around, even 2 cities at 0% research aren't going to cut it. Not without cottages at least, and upgrading means no cottage for a while.

Although, consider this: Vox has the same problem. what's the max amount of units they can support at 0% research? we'll need 2 cities and cottages, but we can destroy them economically. And it won't take 70 turns before we hit that limit.

Vox would be wise to be saving on cash right now. I wonder if they know this. Please, let them research whatever possible!

DeepO

[Velociryx]

(you DO know I'm not pissed or anything, don't you? I hope so! I think it's been a fantastic debate!)

And it's cool. The catapult strategy is vastly more conservative, but from the comments made thus far, it seems only DeepO and myself are strongly in favor of a lightning strike with axes, which (unless there is a sudden groundswell of support), puts us in a clear minority.

DeepO, I like your idea re: upgrading warriors, and I think that's a fine approach, but I also think we won't (necessarily) need it. IMO, we would have more than enough hitting power without, but again, you and I seem the clear minority in terms of favoring the muscle and bone approach.

Blake, I'll do you one better. In addition to supporting the Cat idea wholeheartedly right now, I'll say this:

I think the key assumption you based your maths on is unrealistic, and because it's unrealistic, that makes the end result unrealistic. I think we'd be CRAZY (and I'm not talking about punch-drunk crazy, I'm talking about naked grandmas on motorcycles in December crazy) to assume that the Vox team is going to get the save, build archers, hit F and pass the turn for the next sixty turns, but even if they did, they have no better than a 35% chance of winning the day (and actually, this number is closer to 15% if you take into account such things as a road network linking us to Vox and the five+ forests we could chop and a per turn production suite that's triple theirs in size...and that's before taking into account any missteps they make in non-optimal tile assignments). Each unit they lose by doing something rash and reckless reduces this by some 4%.

If we were in their shoes, WE wouldn't do it (build Archers, sit back, do nothing but hit "F" and pass the turn), and I'm 10,000% sure they won't either (thus, my "safe" assumptions from before).

And I'm willing to put my money where my mouth is.

Let's do it your way, and IF Vox holes up like you believe they will. If they sit back for the next sixty turns, build archers and hit F and pass the turn to us, I'll buy you a copy of EU III, or any other computer game you choose. If they don't, you get to wear a "Vel was right" tag line in your sig file, and support ME the next time we disagree. Deal?

-=Vel=-

EDIT: And yes...for all the reasons I mentioned before, I think it's imperative for us to decide on a strategy and spend the bulk of our time honing it, rather than endlessly dickering and trying to convince each other of the flawlessness of our thinking....I know I'm right, you know you're right, but our plans differ...so let's pick one and get down to brass tacks.

[Dominae]

The whole point of a choke is limit expansion and deny access to tiles. That's the source of advantage it provides, and it grows as you grow while keeping them down.

It's possible to throw this advantage out the window by attacking prematurely; I've seen it done before. In this case you still are further ahead, but not by quite as much because: you had to build all those units and they are now destroyed; you no longer have your advantageous position.

Vel is not wrong to predict that Vox will try to break the choke: I have seen that happen before too. But it's not a sure thing. The only sure thing (if there are any sure things) is that Catapults will end this in an instant. We just have to get there.

At this point I think the important question is not so much should we wait for Catapults, but rather how many units do we send over in the meantime to maintain a good enough choke.

[Velociryx]

Well, I've said my piece on it and made my bet with Blake, so I'm willing and ready to drop it.

IMO, we should start with the four Skirms and grow the force slowly. More than that, and it costs US (and slows down research to the Catapults that are all the rage), and less = a non credible threat.

Soon as we get some cottages up, we can expand the choke, but for now, unless we want to start dinging our research, four's about as good as it gets.

-=Vel=-

[Hot Mustard]

Great discussion guys. I'm not actually convinced one way or the other yet, personally. I was definitely on the side of attack-as-quick-as-possible initially, but now... unsure.

Something to keep in mind though, is the impact of the PtWDG. If I were a Vox team member, I would not be thrilled with the situation being so similar to the last game, and would not want a repeat of the long, drawn out, subservient existence. I would more likely walk away and let others play it out, or be determined to go out gloriously.

I'm no pyschologist - but I wouldn't be at all surprised if they jumped at the chance to end it quickly and join our team, as opposed to getting killed or a repeat of the last game.

Of course, I don't know if its the same membership...

[Velociryx]

I agree, and that's one of the reasons I sugessted that approach. In addition to being factually true, we have psychology on our side.

But....I am, by my own admission, a bit of a freak, soooo....

-=Vel=-

[Dominae]

I think we should build Cottages, beeline for Construction, and end this.

[Velociryx]

that's the very plan I just agreed to, Dom...

-=Vel=-

[Mudhut]

For what it's worth:

-I am particularly grateful to both Vel and Blake for writing all this down for humble noobs like me to learn from. I have re-read it all three times and I think I understand it vaguely.
-I am persuaded that Vel's plan - attacking as early as possible with lots o axes - is the best option. [Blake: I know the numbers don't work in the worst case scenario, but I agree with Vel's statements about what Vox will/won't do.]

But
-If Vel is happy to go with waiting for cats, then I'm happy to do that too!
-I think the Vel v Blake bet sounds like a very interesting idea! Except it should include eating cardboard somewhere there as well... (oh, and Blake should probably accept the bet at some point, or it's not really a bet!!)

Doesn't seem like there's really any need for a vote, IMHO.

[Dominae]

Originally posted by Velociryx
that's the very plan I just agreed to, Dom...

Just throwing in my two cents.

[vmxa1]

I am some what swayed by Blake and Dom, but by nature I am go for broke guy. So as per Vel, I can support either.

I suspect that we could bust them sooner, but no doubt it is utterly safe to go Blakes way.