Turn 37, 2560BC

[Hot Mustard]

Turn 37, 2560BC (current plan)

Units
Grog: 2/2, 1/2 Exp. Fortified on Vox gold
Spinebreaker: 2/2 7/10 Exp (W2). Move 9
Thug: 2/2, 0/2 Exp. Fort in EotS
1st Skirmisher: 4/4, 0/2 Exp Move 9

Worker: build road

Science
Current (11/turn): Bronze Working (5 turns) (102/171)
Polytheism 134/143


Cities

Eye of the Storm (Size 3)
WF: same (4,8,87)
Growth (3/turn): 19/26 (3 turns)
Production (5/turn): Skirmisher (15/25) (2 turns)

Diplomacy
None

Other
None

[Hot Mustard]

Re: Turn 37, 2560BC

Originally posted by dejon
Spinebreaker: 2/2 7/10 Exp (W2). Move 8? 9?
1st Skirmisher: 4/4, 0/2 Exp Move 8? 9?

Any issues? I'll try to remember to rename the Skirm this time.

[Ennet]

Skirm 9? we still want him wandering in the right direction, 8 would just stall him..

[Arrian]

Skirm toward Vox. Seems like 9, 6 or 3 would be better than 8.

Spiney... make use of his woodyII status if possible. I think he could do some scouting to the north, although he's also useful for choking purposes.

-Arrian

[Hot Mustard]

Vox is after Grog!


Do we want to move Grog, or stand and fight?

[Blake]

Stay on gold (+50%): 44% chance of beating archer.
Cross river onto forest (+50, -25%): 70% chance of beating archer attacking across river.
Cross river onto forest, Vox also crosses then fights (+55%): 58% chance of beating archer.

Grog will almost certainly die, the best case odds of also beating the warrior is like 5%. So it's the chance of trading Grog for an Archer.

My vote is to move Grog onto the plains forest then make a stand.

[Ennet]

I agree with Blake, they might try soften Grog with the warrior also to give the Archer a greater shot at it, but with larger production capasities i am all for any 1-1 trade.

[Hot Mustard]

If all they're after is the gold hill, then moving off to the plains forest gives them what they want without a fight - they could move those units or either of them to the hill and claim it.

If they want to kill Grog - we could lead them on a merry goose chase.

The question is - what do they want?

[notyoueither]

I'd rather keep Grog. We have a lot of scouting to do.

Move 9, and keep moving if we need to.

[Dominae]

I vote move onto the Plains Forest. The odds are in their favor of killing Grog with a combination of both units, but they will have to risk losing the game to two losses in a row. They might just play defensively and move a unit back the Voice rather than chance it.

As someone else mentioned, even a one for one Warrior trade is in our favor, given the strategic situation.

[Mudhut]

I vote for the plains forest.

There's a low chance that they may have done something aggressive like clearing out their capital to send the other warrior to harass us (since we can't see it any more thanks to the forest). If we move Grog, they are then forced to attack across the river.

Also, I think it a good idea to also send them a merry note something along the lines of:

"Seeing the forces arrayed against him, the brave but headstrong warrior Grog rallied himself for one final glorious battle. As he charged towards the Voxian capital, he cried 'For the Stooooorm....'"

Gives the impression that we might be stupid enough to attack their capital with Grog (ie that we were thinking "if he's going to die, may as well take the 2% shot of winning the game"). Perhaps this might make them move a unit back into The Voice, which would then mean they couldn't attack next turn. Which would allow Grog to stay for another few turns, with line of sight and more fortify bonus. He'll die eventually if we take this path (when they build their second archer), so I understand the value of wanting to run away. But it's worth the sacrifice imho.

[I'm fine with not sending an accompanying message, btw - I still think it's the best move.]

[notyoueither]

If we move to the plains forest, they move 8 and 2 of him and he is dead as soon as he moves, and they have a second archer before the 1st skirm gets there.

We are gifting them a promotion.

[Ennet]

The point about a promotion is true, i didnt concider that, if they move 9 and 2 we could move 4 or fortify, depending on what they moved where and we would still probably walk off with a 1-1 deal at least. But they do get a promotion, and if we run away with Grog they might want to give chase with both units to be sure to be able to kill him off if they get the chance.. that would tie up two of their units and giving Grog a chance to surive, and it also makes it harder for them to kill off our first skirmisher and gain another promotion.. which may or may not be a good thing..
If they have copper anywhere near, the trade will be in their favour as it will give them time to hook up the copper.. if it isnt, any 1-1 trade or better will be in our favour even if they gain some exp.. so it might be wise to let them give chase to Grog until we know better..

Oh and if its the hill they want, we only profit if they work it, at least until they have had time to improve it, and by then we should have a coupple of skirms parked between the gold and the capital..

So i change my vote to 9.

[Hot Mustard]

I also think moving 9 is the best course of action. They'll kill Grog one way or another, possibly getting a promotion. They'll also end up with the gold hill one way or another. By moving 9 we at least save Grog, and perhaps draw one or both units away from The Voice - possibly leaving it open for Vidane & SB?

How much longer should we wait for input before playing the turn?

[Cort Haus]

I'll go for 9 too.