Turn 34, 2680BC

[Hot Mustard]

Turn 34, 2680BC (current plan)

Units
Grog: 2/2, 1/2 Exp. Fortified on Vox gold
Spinebreaker: 2/2 7/10 Exp (W2). Move 3-6?
Thug: 2/2, 0/2 Exp. Fort in EotS

Worker: Mine complete, start Road

Science
Current (11/turn): Bronze Working (8 turns) (69/171)
Polytheism 134/143


Cities

Eye of the Storm (Size 3)
WF: same (4,8,87)
Growth (3/turn): 10/26 (6 turns)
Production (5/turn): Skirmisher complete (25/25), start Skirmisher (0/25)? (5 turns)

Diplomacy
None

Other
None

[Hot Mustard]

Re: Turn 34, 2680BC

Originally posted by dejon
Spinebreaker: ... Move 3-6?

Worker: ... move 2?

Production (5/turn): ... start Skirmisher?

SB continues to make use of his promotion with 3-6, but if we want to head north sooner or defend the sheep, he may move differently.

Worker's next improvement? I recall reading mining the plain hill on the river - were there any competing alternatives?

Skirmisher next? I believe the notion of a Scout next was discussed and decided to be sub-optimal.

Discussion encouraged.

[notyoueither]

I think we need to switch to food now.

Also, we should road the sheep before moving to the next hill. You want to be able to move quickly to an important tile to defend it, especially when in a war.

[Blake]

Hmm...

Sheep R Good: 3fpt / 4fpt 5hpt/5hpt
6 turns to grow to size 4, 30h
7 turns to grow to size 5, 35h
Turn 13 total = 65h.

Max Food: 5fpt/5fpt 1hpt/1hpt

4 turns to grow to size 4, 4h
5 turns to grow to size 5, 5h
4 turns of 11hpt, 44h
Turn 13 total = 55h

Food then Sheep: 5fpt /4fpt 1hpt/5hpt
4 turns to grow to size 4, 4h
6 turns to grow to size 5, 30h
3 turns of 11hpt, 33h
Turn 13 total = 67h

The highest yield is from growing to 4 asap and then working the sheep while growing to 5. That yields 67h.
But working the sheep the whole time yields 65h and that remaining 2 hammers hardly matters (since the sheep yield is a multiple of 5).
Difference in commerce might be enough to let us research BW a turn earlier.

It seems that the numbers support maximum sheepage. So do I then. Work the sheep, I say. Maybe I missed something though.

edit: Agreed on roading the sheep. If we then road the river plains hill too then the same units can defend both the sheep and EotS.

[notyoueither]

The numbers say maximum sheep? But you just laid out that we get more hammers and commerce by working fps to size 4.

[Blake]

Okay I've calculated it more fully.

On turn 13, the total yield from "Growth" exceeds that of "Sheep" - therafter the yield per turn is the same.

Depending on tile allocation, the total yield is higher by 2 food, 2 hammers and 6 commerce. This can be translated into 0 food, 6 hammers and 4 commerce (since the 2 food would be surplus in the food bar at size 5 and can be absorbed by working forests in place of floodplains).

Working the sheep, we move the next several builds forward by 3 turns, at the cost of moving subsequent builds back by 1/2 a turn (the 6 hammers being equal to half of the 12 production).

The question is, what is the turn advantage in having our next several units out 3 turns earlier? I say this is somewhat intangible (at the moment). I mean it's possible that Vox have a scout out still and our scout might beat them to a hut if he gets on the job asap - that could be like 40g, easily covering the cost. Or maybe a 3 turn earlier 2nd skirmisher will be able to prevent them securing a tile.
Instinctively I say it's better to get units out faster.

Btw it's likely that Vox's builds will go something like this:
Worker: 9 turns
Archer1: 3 turns - 12
Archer2: 4 turns - 16
Archer3: 3 turns - 19
Archer4: 4 turns - 23
(reminder, we have a 10 turn travel time to get to The Voice)

It is likely that turn 16 (from now) will be the turn they can secure both The Voice and an adjacant tile (1 archer+1warrior). Turn 19 will be when they can definitely boot out Grog without excessive risk or keep our skirmisher off a flatland tile. I would say that turn 19 is the latest we want our 2nd skirmisher to arrive. Failure to do so will give Vox a short grace period to safely hook up "lucky copper" (copper on their river on the far side of The Voice type thing...) and once hooked up they could whip out 2 axemen - this wouldn't save them by any means, but it would be a big annoyance - we'd need 4 skirmishers to kill their 2 axes.
I think if we do go fps I'd have to insist that the next build be a skirmisher, but if we work the sheep we can sneak a scout in first. Alternative analysis of the relative turn advantage (or risk) is welcome, though.

edit: If they decide to utilize the whip on the worker or archers then all bets are off regarding what they can and can't secure - but they'll destroy their longer term potential in the procress.

[Ennet]

Nice calculation Blake, personally I would value an earlier skirmisher more than a scout. Specially with Barbs comming up in not too long.
Sheeps got my vote aswell, seems like the best option. Back to semilurking for a few days..

[Arrian]

Skirmishers. More. Better. Faster.

-Arrian

[notyoueither]

OK. We give up a couple of shileds and a few commerce. In return we get a skirmisher 4 or 5 turns sooner. I can go along with that.

The real choice was made last turn. That lost food would have moved growth under full food up a turn.

[Hot Mustard]

We missed orders for the first skirmisher. Move? 3? 9?

Do we want to get each Skirmisher into the (choking) field as they are completed, or wait for pairs, or wait for them all?

We also need a plan of approach for each, each pair, or whatever we decide. Go in from the south, the north, the west, or all of the above?

I'm thinking of moving our first one 3 this turn, in case we want to get out there immediately. If not, he can always return next turn.

[Cort Haus]

I think we're sending the first one off on his own, to jump on any Bronze they might have.

[Blake]

I think we should send the first skirmisher 9, in case Vox should deicde to bring their warrior back that way. Head 9 for about 4 turns then head 3 to The Voice.

edit: Spinebreaker, I would almost like to send up north scouting...

[Hot Mustard]

Turn 34, 2680BC

Units
Grog: 2/2, 1/2 Exp. Fortified on Vox gold
Spinebreaker: 2/2 7/10 Exp (W2). Moved 3-6
Thug: 2/2, 0/2 Exp. Fort in EotS
1st Skirmerisher: 4/4, 0/2 Exp Moved 9

Worker: Mine complete, started Road (2 turns)

Science
Current (11/turn): Bronze Working (8 turns) (69/171)
Polytheism 134/143


Cities

Eye of the Storm (Size 3)
WF: same (4,8,87)
Growth (3/turn): 10/26 (6 turns)
Production (5/turn): Skirmisher completed (25/25), started Skirmisher (0/25) (5 turns)

Diplomacy
None

Other
None

[notyoueither]

Nothing startling in stats this turn, except that skirms are worth 3K troops, someone lost a warrior, and we are 2nd in soldiers. That will greatly help nail down soldiers stats.

If we want to send SB north, 39 is the fastest way to get to forest. Moving the skirmisher 999933... would lend him some support in getting to the tree line as well.

One question though, how do we uncover the possible copper and barb city sites to our south?

Oops. Missed you by a few minutes, dejon.

[notyoueither]

Best GNP 17, +1
Mfg, we are 3rd with 5. Two teams have 6 (best)
Crops average went to 9, +1. We are 3rd now with 9, so two teams are 10 (looks like Vox) to 14 (best)

We are tracking very close to Vox in Mfg, GNP, and crops.