After the 1st skirm: Econ/Strat spit ball session

[notyoueither]

And Dom may be right. We may not be able to finish this without cats.

If they turtle with archers and every unit they build stacked up in the cap, they can likely stay over the 1:2 threshhold for successful assault on The Voice.

[Velociryx]

I agree, it's a possibility, but I wouldn't bet the ranch on that....they're already running scared, and they've already demonstrated less than optimal play. They won't be content to sit there holed up indefinitely.

Rash action.

That's what we can expect from them.

And I'd bet it'll come long time before cats.

If not tho, I agree...cats would be the sure finisher, and definitely an eventuality we should plan for.

-=Vel=-

[Krill]

Turn 32: WF 2, 4, 8, 2hpt/4fpt
Turn 33: WF 4, 8, 87, 5hpt/3fpt, Worker finish mine
Turn 34: WF 4, 8, 9, 1hpt/5fpt, Skirm1 built build skirm 2, 0 hammer spill over, Worker 2
Turn 35: ditto, Worker Mine
Turn 36: ditto,
Turn 37: ditto,
Turn 38: WF 4, 8, 9, 88, 1hpt/6fpt, 4 food stored, Mine finished.
Turn 39: ditto, Worker 22
Turn 40: ditto, Worker chop if possible
Turn 41: ditto,
Turn 42: WF 4, 8, 9, 87, 5hpt/4fpt,
Turn 43: Size 5, 13 hammers invested in Skirm2.

That is basically growing asap. Not particulary shabby but I'm still wary of Vox doing something that doesn't help us which completely screws us over, ie connecting copper.

[Velociryx]

Okay, I slept on all the latest information we've got coming in, and here's how I see it:

* Absolutely no possibility of seriously talking peace until we know what the copper situation is on ours and Vox's little slices of the continent. Worst case, we talk peace beforehand, it turns out that they've got copper and we don't, and it gives them time to mine it and start cranking out axes that we have absolutely no answer for. As long as we're choking them, this is impossible, and we keep them away from their best ancient age resource.

* Once the copper situation clarifies itself, we monopolize it in the region, then sure...we could sue for peace, wait for cats and blow them off the map, but why? If we have copper and they don't, then we no longer NEED cats anyways...may as well just have done with it.

* Second (and third) cities become even more important if we want to end this thing in a timely fashion, because of the production edge it would give us over them. EoTS can already outgun them, hammer for hammer, but with 1-2 additional cities, even if they produced nothing but Skirmishers (no copper for us, worst case), we could still bury them, turtling or no (and the city builds would help mitigate the hammer loss of a war like that, as the "cost" would be spread out over a couple of cities rather than just being eaten by the one we've got right now.

* Cats are great, and we should definitely plan for that eventuality, but IF we're gonna wait that long, then we need to sue for peace right after the copper situation is clarified, so we can REX and prep to meet them in force post-cats. I don't think we need to do it this way, and think that it's dangerous to leave them alive that long, but if that's the prevailing opinion, then that's what we'll do.

In any case, NYE brought up an excellent point re: Scouts...at this point in the game, a scout might have a relatively short shelf life, and if we're NOT gonna build one, then we need to get our Woody II warrior north where it appears the bulk of the continent is, so we can explore it and find out what our continent-wide options are...his use is diluted in the predictable south, and a proposed scout would have gone north anyways, almost by default. We can scout the south after Vox is gone....no civs south of us anyways, so it's basically a barb spawning dead zone for now, but it's also a safe border in terms of human presence.

So if we run without a scout, then the course is clear enough. Max food and churn out as many Skirmishers as we can between now and BW, then see what's what.

-=Vel=-

[Dominae]

Originally posted by Velociryx
* Once the copper situation clarifies itself, we monopolize it in the region, then sure...we could sue for peace, wait for cats and blow them off the map, but why? If we have copper and they don't, then we no longer NEED cats anyways...may as well just have done with it.

But we do need Cats: Axemen versus Archers in their capital is not a cost-effective proposition.

Let's say you're right: they do panic and make desperate moves like try to break our siege against the odds. In this case they just make our job eaiser no matter which we choose - Axes or Cats. If instead they focus on making our job harder by building Archer upon Archer in their capital, we will need Cats.

I've seen this scenario many times in MP: once you deny their Copper/Iron/Horses, they either quit, commit suicide, or spite you by building zounds of Archers. As long as you get Construction in a timely manner, they're cooked regardless. I imagine Vox will try to make it as difficult for us as possible on their way out.

[Velociryx]

It's not that the cats aren't useful, and I totally see what you're saying...yes, without cats, it's gonna be more resource intensive.....then again, if we have 2-3 cities committed to the war effort, and we're choking them (limiting their growth and whip options, and also limiting their ability to get hammers--unless they come out to play, they will have ZERO tile improvements, and we'll be occupying all the best food, hammer, and commerce producers they would normally have access to), there's *no possible way* they can produce enough archers to keep us at bay, even if we suffer wretched luck in combat....they just simply cannot do it (at...what? 3-5 hammers a turn and maybe 1-2 surplus food for whipping?).

So we lose a few axes...we gain a city really close to the capitol that has a gold mine attached (and eventually, a shrine), we gain religion, and the ability to spread it to our benefit sooner, rather than later, and we gain the security of having the continent to ourselves--so far as we know--....it might not be as cost effective, this is true, but it's also about a thousand years faster, and that's gotta count for something, no?

-=Vel=-

[Velociryx]

Was gonna edit the post above, but I thought it maybe deserved its own post.

One thing we ought to decide *right now*, before too many more turns go by, is "do we wanna wait for catapults?"

Because if we do, then there's no sense in staying at war, and there's no sense in building 3-4 Skirmishers.

We ought to make peace and out-REX them if we're waiting that long.

IMO, we can grind them to dust without Catapults, but Dom's points are excellent ones, and the war *will be* more expensive without them (acceptably more expensive, IMO, but I am only a single voice on this team, and I have been absent, which I recognize may well lessen the weight of my advice...I understand the need and desire to be efficient, but I also understand timing. Faster's better, even if it's more expensive...that's the situation we face here. Fast and more expensive....slow and cheaper. That's really what it comes down to).

That's the first thing we gotta decide, because finishing them now requires a radically different build order and priority vs. waiting for cats. As ever, I will gladly go with whatever the team decides, but based on what we know *right now,* we hold all the important cards, and there's no reason on earth why we can't just blow them off the map early and be done with it.

-=Vel=-

[Dominae]

Originally posted by Velociryx
there's *no possible way* they can produce enough archers to keep us at bay, even if we suffer wretched luck in combat....they just simply cannot do it (at...what? 3-5 hammers a turn and maybe 1-2 surplus food for whipping?).

I completely agree; they're cooked if we decide to throw enough resources at them.

What I'm arguing is that Cats will be the most cost-effective way of doing it. You have to build a lot of Axemen to conquer 8+ Archers in a 40-60% cultural defense city in a single turn. Do we really want to build all those Axes?

I would prefer keeping them choked (with Skirmishers, maybe a few Axes) until we get Construction. This tech path is certainly not the most ideal, but it's not horrible either. And all those Hammers saved on Axes will help our economy elsewhere.

[notyoueither]

Well, if we are agreed that we make all speed to size 5 whether at war or not, then I'd say we have a bit of time to decide whether to wait for cats or not.

[Dominae]

Originally posted by Velociryx
That's the first thing we gotta decide, because finishing them now requires a radically different build order and priority vs. waiting for cats. As ever, I will gladly go with whatever the team decides, but based on what we know *right now,* we hold all the important cards, and there's no reason on earth why we can't just blow them off the map early and be done with it.

I think the appearance of Copper will have a lot to say about what path we should follow here. Beyond that, I agree that we need to decide pretty soon whether to invest fully in Vox's early demise: if we do, vertical growth in the cap and pump out the Axemen; if not, start expanding and get those Cottages going.

[Blake]

I think the way we destroy them is really up to Vox. If they do the non-boring thing and try to take the fight to us, proactively doing what damage they can, then they'll take enough losses to be crushable with a simple skirmisher/axe rush pumped from 1-2 cities.

On the other hand if they go for the route of maximum harm - denying us their capital for as long as possible, then in that case it'll be easiest to wait for catapults.

I think that if we do go for a booming economy to get catapults ASAP, then they'll come out of The Voice to fight us and try to slow us down, but in that case we wont be geared up to outnumber them at The Voice.

So the question really is whether they'll try to fight us in the next 20 turns or so. If they fight, we fight and crush them. if they huddle, we focus on our economy and otherwise only have enough military to keep the choke on.

I don't think copper makes a huge difference here - An Axeman is 20% stronger than a skirmisher and costs 40% more, without promotions, for a non-agg leader, they are fairly equal fighting units in terms of bang for buck. Axeman are infinitely more whippable though, but in our case we have enough hills to make whipping largely non-useful (we'd need to get granaries first too).
edit: I'm also assuming that, one way or another, Vox wont be seeing any copper in their city screen. It's true that Axemen are much better than plain archers.

[Velociryx]

Wow...Blake and I are actually on opposite sides of the fence on this one...I think I can count those times on one hand! See, I disagree with the notion that how we beat Vox is up to Vox. WE hold all the important cards....how we destroy them is, I believe, entirely up to US. What they do will affect the margins, but they're in the inferior position (and by a substantial margin). They react to US, not the other way around, unless we willingly hand them the initiative to do so, but why would we want to do that?

Based on what we've seen from them so far, I am convinced that they will NOT do the thing that will give us the most grief...they will NOT sit idly in their city and hit "end turn" until we take them out.

They're scared, and they'll behave like a scared person. They'll lash out, even if it isn't optimal.

And when they do, we need to have the goods to relieve them of their city sooner, rather than later, so we can get on with the rest of the game.

I think that the combination of the production advantage we have now, coupled with whatever we get from wherever a second city might go, and further combined with their own fear and rash action, they'll largely undo themselves.

If they don't....if the war doesn't pan out that way, then it'll be easy enough to simply make for Catapults (or plan to), and finish them off, but I'd be surprised as hell if they're still around by the time we GET catapults....assuming we put our minds and hearts to their destruction, that is.

re: Axes (and copper in general):

Three things make copper pretty important, IMO. True, that the combat strength between Axes and Skirmishers isn't all that huge (and less than the increased cost of the unit), but we gain efficiencies in pop rushing (nod to axes), and an axe vs. an archer is more likely to win than a skirm vs. archer, which means relatively fewer promotions for the other team (another nod to the axe). Finally tho, the BIGGEST component of copper playing an important role is not so much if WE have it (cos we could beat them with Skirmishers alone if we had to), but if THEY do.

If they do and we don't, then choking them is the only way to stay in the game and maintain our dominant position. If we both do, again, choke is pivotal to a clean war. If we do and they don't is the only scenario in which choke doesn't gain us a clear combat advantage (tho it DOES still give us a production edge, over and above the natural advantages we can already apply, in the form of denial of key tiles).

In any case, the core choice seems to come down to this:

If we want to take them fast, then let's keep the choke on and ram Skirmishers and/or Axes down their throats until they die (and it won't take terribly long).

If we don't have the stomach for that, then let's ease off, expand to our no-maint cap (4 for Noble?), and blow them away when Cats come around.

Whatever we do tho, we need to decide in the next two turns (skirmisher will be done and we need to know what we're building next...if not in two turns then *certainly* we need to be of one mind by the time we hit size five), as again, these two paths have different goals, aims, and build orders, so it's not something we can just "wing it" and decide on the fly. We need a coherent plan and we need to follow through with it.


-=Vel=-

[Blake]

No really I think we are mostly in agreement here (i've just crunched more numbers ), firstly I think that whatever we do, Vox die - their choice is in how they get to die, a quick and flashy death or a slow grinding death.


Now this is basically fact: Logistically, it's simply not possible for us to use a clean skirm/axe bumrush if they do nothing other than pump Archers from now until the end of the game and fortify them all in The Voice (or are otherwise very careful not to lose any, and get them back to the Voice in time when they see our forces amassing seriously). That is Vox's die very slowly choice.
The calculations I did were only back of the envelop stuff combined with some in game testing. The fact is two skirmishers wont reliably kill one archer in The Voice. I ran a whole bunch of 10 skirmishers vs 5 archers trials, in maybe 15-20%, the skirmishers won out-right - so I'm not saying it can't happen, just it's more likely to fail. And then about 15-20% of the time the skirmishers lose horribly - in one case every archer was left alive. I would say if we want somewhat reliable odds we want to outnumber them at least 3:1 (for axemen, like 2.2:1) - 2.5:1 would be the risky minimum.

What this means is that having a 2:1 hammer ratio, or even slightly better, isn't going to cut it, since we have a 10 turn travel time, giving Vox time enough to train another 2 archers and skew the odds. We need like a 3:1 hammer ratio going for long enough to cover the travel time and the investment in getting that 3:1 hammer ratio - the second city will take approximately 28 turns to pay off the 100 hammers investment.

Vox production is going to be static at about 6hpt, maybe dropping to 5hpt (they can slave), eventually maybe 4hpt (with whip, that's about what the city tile and 1 worker on crap produces).

Our production is going to be 1hpt for about ~7 turns, then 5hpt for ~7 turns, then 12hpt thereafter. The second city will start at -100 hammers, take about 20 turns to get to size 3, and thereafter produce ~8 hpt with mines or axe whipping (another 10 turns to pay back the investment).

It should in principle be possible to graph the hammers-in-units "at The Voice" for each team - once that ratio hits about 3:1, the brute force GS vs meek Vox approach pays off - guaranteed.
In my estimate, if Vox are foolish with their archers it'll take as little as 40 turns to eliminate them with brute force - 15 turns to grow, then 15 turns of skirmishers, and 10 turns of travel ~10 skirmishers at the Voice, vs 4 archers.

But if Vox are conservative then in that same time span they'd have trained 9 archers – far too many for our skirms to handle.
20 turns later (choked down to 4hpt, no settler, road to Vox): We'd have 30 skirmishers, Vox have 13 archers. Now those are some winning odds.

So the way I see it, if Vox are very conservative then they can choose to hold out for up to 55-60 turns and for 20 of those turns we'll be hemorrhaging gold from the unit supply starving The Voice - they can die very expensively for us and that is a choice they CAN make. (maybe with a 2nd forward city we can get it down to ~50 turns)

Now assuming that they refuse to take that boring path - then we have a lot more liberty in choosing how and when to kill them.


But regardless, I feel that the best strategy in the immediate future is to grow to size 5 ASAP, maybe slowing growth at size 4 to work the sheep (should actually calculate the merit of that, should be a black and white thing in terms of total hammers).

And also, during that growth period when we have a fixed optimal strategy, Vox should also make it fairly clear how they intend to fight us - aggressively or defensively.

So I contend that the final decision needs to be made when we reach size 5 - by then we should also have the information we need regarding Vox strategy.

[Velociryx]

Yep, in reading that, we are mostly in agreement, and it looks like our course is set at least until we hit size five (building skirmishers until we hit that threshold).

After that, we see what Vox is doing (my money is still on the fact that they'll not be content to turtle, but as you say, the next span of turns will reveal it, one way or the other).

So everybody's pretty happy with our general course till we hit size five then? Just keep cranking out skirmishers while we grow, then revisit the discussion based on what else has transpired by that point in the game?

This means we stay at war from now till size five, at a minimum, and strengthen the choke with what forces we can make available in that timeframe.

In that case, the immediate term discussions should probably shift to exactly what forces we plant in their territory, and specifically *which* tiles we block with those forces.

Clearly, our choke isn't sustainable at the present (one warrior fortified on a hill), so the first skirmisher we get almost has to head to Voxian lands, by default.

So how many of their tiles do we want to lock down, in the near term? (and which tile is the soon-to-be completed skirmisher bound for, in Vox territory)?

-=Vel=-