KGB: Voxs peace-fire offer: Why now?

[DeepO]

Okay, as seen here, Vox sent us an ultimatum-like offer: they are holding their turn, expecting an immediate response whether we would consider allying with them or not.

There are two main discussions here:
1. Do we want to ally with Vox, instead of aiming to destroy them?
2. Why the urgency?

------------------

1. Allying with Vox
In principle, this would be a good idea. With 2, we should be able to destroy anyone in our path. At some point or another, we'll need an ally in this game, or we'll lose.

The thing is, Vox is an unlikely candidate for us. We'd be better of if we can take them. They're very close to us, are near-certain to spread their religion to us, and we've tried something like this a couple of years ago.

Direct gains on our side?
- None, except the ability to pursue a tech like Pottery/Alphabet, instead of BW.

Direct gains on Vox' side?
- they can build a worker, who can improve without the risk of pillaging
- They can chose their tiles optimally
- They can get resources
- They will gain 1gpt almost immediately
- They will gain Line of Sight in our capital almost immediately
- They can train a scout to race after huts
- Right now, there is no option for them to send out a settler.

2. Timing
I think that for us, it's too soon to decide whether we'd win or not. Vox is correct in that it will take quite a long time to conquer them, time we lose opposed to other teams. However, right now we're not losing anything: our research path won't change over the next 12 turns as it will stay on BW. Our build queue won't change either: we need to get at least 2 skirms asap in any case. And our unit actions won't change a lot either: our worker will improve the same tiles, our warriors will roughly stay in the same spot too (Grog would explore in peace, but that's about the only difference).

But why would they send us this message in the middle of their turn? My guess is, that they have spotted something, otherwise they could have warned us a bit before sending us an ultimatum.

So, what could have changed?
- They moved their scouting warrior 99. From there, They can't see our worker...
- But maybe they deduced we built a worker anyway. And realised they can't keep us from improving our land, while we can keep them from improving theirs.
- Further, maybe they didn't anticipate us going for the gold hill. If they would think on a worker, the gold would be the first spot to improve. It let's them grow a pop, gives huge commerce (which they otherwise won't get), and they already have mining. We've blocked them there, in that we forced them in making a decision right now: either attack us now, or face a growing fortify bonus.

- Other line of thought: is it possible that they got either AH or BW? If so, they might spot they lack a resource, or can't reach a resource while we might be right next to a bronze or horse. That would certainly be a reason for them to ask for peace asap, before we find out ourselves.
- Last change I see, is that we've completed archery, and must be on our way towards a skirm. They can see part of our WF distribution, and might have deduced we will complete a skirm before they can even threaten our worker.

DeepO

[DeepO]

One thing to note, is that I think Vox might be right that we won't be able to destroy them without seriously hampering our own growth. But that doesn't mean we acn't stay in the war a bit longer.

And in general, it seems like Vox will be gaining more than us, especially in the short term. Any alliance we'd get, should compensate this. As a minimum, any agreement should see 1gpt for every of our cities with their religion going towards us... it's the least they can pay for the ability to spy on us at all times.

DeepO

[DeepO]

Heh. I just noticed that my subject reads like I'm dyslexic... sorry about that

Not a lot of things going on here. Guys, we need some more opinions on this!

DeepO

[Ennet]

Re: KGB: Voxs peace-fire offer: Why now?

Edit: Nvm..

[Ennet]

Re: KGB: Voxs peace-fire offer: Why now?

Originally posted by DeepO
1. Do we want to ally with Vox, instead of aiming to destroy them?
2. Why the urgency?

1. No! Specialy not until we've seen the save..

2. Want us to make a quick and not-too-well-thought-through decition maybe.. Might have researched copper this turn and found out they had none.. or even worse for them, they had none, but we had some copper within or close to our border.. they're screwed in either case.. and either way, if that was what happened or not, we dont need to stress or should not stress any decision.

[Theseus]

Burn'em to the ground.

(Although I will say that Don seemed like a generally good guy at Polycon.)

[notyoueither]

I'm inclined to say no.

While they are correct that we fall behind in econ vs the others in the short term, they fail to mention the benefit of having two start locations (and theirs is great with the gold and the religion) and a lot of room to find 'super-sites' for future cities in the long term.

Furthermore, I look at it this way. We'll either be out of this game before years are invested, or we will gain a huge advantage in power in the mid to long term and be on track to winning.

[Mudhut]

I too think the answer is no.

Perhaps we need to point out to them that they have the lead "in peace" as it were. With their religion and gold hill, they will be in the lead if we're at peace. We have the lead "in war", with our superior ability to disrupt their workforce and skirms on the way. Why should we give up our advantage?

Also, I'd really love to see the save and if they have BW now -> that could explain a lot (if they have found out that they have no bronze, then it's pretty much all over for them).

[asleepathewheel]

/delurking

hey-

I'll throw a no vote in as well. This has bluff written all over it. We have skirmishers for a reason, press the advantage.


(I'm going to post more around here for a change, I think)

[Cort Haus]

If they had just uncovered Bronze or Horses within range I doubt they'd be asking for peace. Perhaps they want us off the gold, or have a build/tech decision to make.

IMO we should say that we neither wish to hold up the game, nor be rushed. They can attack us this turn if they want, and we will consider their offer on our turn. If the offer no longer stands at that point, so be it.

[Hot Mustard]

Originally posted by notyoueither
I'm inclined to say no.

While they are correct that we fall behind in econ vs the others in the short term, they fail to mention the benefit of having two start locations (and theirs is great with the gold and the religion) and a lot of room to find 'super-sites' for future cities in the long term.

Furthermore, I look at it this way. We'll either be out of this game before years are invested, or we will gain a huge advantage in power in the mid to long term and be on track to winning.

What nye said. Let's see them cards, Vox.

[Metaliturtle]

N flippin O

Donegeal is afraid of GS I spent 26 hours in a car with him and everything from him was that GS has Vox outgunned strategically, diplomatically, and totally.

Additionally I watched him play CIV on his laptop on his way home, and he felt that Warlord was the appropriate difficulty level for him.

His MP game success that he had at apolycon stemmed more from luck, it was 1 city elimination and he almost lost the game to the barbs. Theseus can verify.

He is right that he can be a pretty good pain in the arse, but I think he is creating a facade to convince us to be his ally.

[notyoueither]

See the chat.

It is quite plain that Done is acknowledging our current advantage which amounts to skirms vs archers.

He is doing the right thing for his position. That doesn't mean that we are doing the wrong thing, for us. For us it is now or never to be a long term power in this game.

[alva]

Originally posted by notyoueither
Furthermore, I look at it this way. We'll either be out of this game before years are invested, or we will gain a huge advantage in power in the mid to long term and be on track to winning.

^^ Sounds like the right mentality, so another (lurker's) no.

[Cort Haus]

Great stuff, nye. Don didn't give an impression of negotiating from a position of strength, or confidence.

and we have massive ww when at war with the holy city?

I didn't know about this aspect of WW.

nye
how much land do we have?
Donegeal
er... not sure. There is room for at least 2, maybe 3 really good cities to our E.

Unless he's bluffing, they've explored the east and there's not room for two or three civs out there, or even one. Which means just the two of us, and a potentially very competitive empire available for a sole survivor.

The flip side is that if we're isolated with no tech trading partner until Optics, and no resource trades until Astro, we might be a long way behind, and even vunerable in the mid-game if an alliance of other civs decide that our long-term potential is too threatening.

With The Horde looking for conflicts, and The Mercs encouraging instability for business reasons, we can hope that there will be war to slow some of the the others down, but if we are alone with no sea-routes we would probably need to lightbulb a few juicy techs, and go cottage-heavy to have a chance of staying in the same era as rivals overseas. Of course, if we are isolated we would only need a garrison-and-barb level force, allowing more time for lovely multiplier and growth builds.