Turn 27, 2960BC

[Hot Mustard]

Turn 27, 2960BC (current plan)

Units
Grog: 2/2, 1/2 Exp. Move 3
Spinebreaker: 2/2 2/5 Exp (W1). Move 7
Thug: 2/2, 0/2 Exp. Fort in EotS

Science
Current: Archery in 2 turns
Polytheism 134/143


Cities

Eye of the Storm (Size 3) WF on auto
Growth: 3/26, paused for Worker build
Production: Worker in 2 turns

Diplomacy
None

Other
None

[Hot Mustard]

Re: Turn 27, 2960BC

Originally posted by dejon

Units
Grog: 2/2, 1/2 Exp. Move 3
Spinebreaker: 2/2 2/5 Exp (W1). Move 7

Grog's move as suggested in the 3040BC turn thread.

SB's move prioritizes the hut over the Lion, assuming it doesn't show itself. If it does, shall we attack?

Discuss.

[Theseus]

SpineBreaker the LionTamer.

[notyoueither]

What are we going to do with our worker when Vox's warrior shows up?

[Mudhut]

Good point nye. The Vox warrior will be at our outer rim cultural borders in 5 turns (assuming that they are trying to harass us, and not just scouting the continent to try and find an ally they can bring against us). He can attack EotS in 7 turns (if they want).

Our worker finishes in 3 turns, so we have 3 turns of spare production before they reach us (is that right? because they move their seventh turn before we do?).

Assuming no fights/healing, at the point where their warroir could attack EotS, Spinebreaker will have reached the hut and be on his way back, but still 5 turns away from EotS.

We're three turns from archery, so can start building our first military unit as soon as the worker finishes. How much will we have built on a warrior/skirmisher at this point? Well, it depends on what we work (note that there is no carryover from the worker, because it finishes at 60/60 exactly)
a. Max Hammers by shrinking option. We're at 3/26 food, so can spend three turns at -1 food without shrinking. If we work grass forest/plains forest/plains hill we get 7 hammers/turn, so this is 21 hammers into a military build.
b. Max Hammers, no shrinking option. If we work grass forest/grass forest/plains hill we get 6 hammers/turn, no shrinking. Which is 18 hammers into a military build.
c. Max food option. If we continue to work fp/fp/fp we're at +5 food a turn. We'd be at 18/26 food, with 3 hammers on our current build. Obviously if we were unconcerned about the Vox warrior, this is our best bet.

Note that none of these workforce plans can be choked by a single unit - we have one 0/3/0 tile, but three 1/2/0 tiles and two 2/1/0 tiles, so we can substitute two 1/2/0 tiles for a 2/1/0 and a 0/3/0 if we need to.

So we can build a warrior in EotS (15 hammers) but not a skirm (25 hammers) before they get to us. Are we willing to allow them to attack EotS with just a warrior defending? However, to attack on the 7th turn, they would be from across the river. This means that we would be +25% from fortifying and +20% from cultural defense, +25% from across river, so 2 vs 3.5. (Can someone check this?) This is of course assuming that the Vox warrior doesn't get promotions from animals on his way to us.

All of which means I'm pretty happy for us to build a skirm first up, using one food from our store to have it complete in four turns (7+6+6+6=25). They'll have a low percentage shot at one lone garrison warrior for one turn (if they want to take it), then our skirm will be built.

In terms of what this means for our worker, if he's on the sheep tile they could move straight there and pillage before we could do anything about it. Does this mean we're better off building on the flood plains to the west of EotS? Because this is one tile further west, We would then have enough time to build a skirm before the Vox warrior could get there.

Thoughts?

[Edit: spelling and removed a bit of ambiguity]

[Theseus]

Not to be overly cautious, but how about switching to a Warrior now?

[notyoueither]

Not the correct answer, IMO.

[Mudhut]

Theseus: They can't get here that quickly.

Here is the map of a possible path they might take. Note that this is from after we moved at 3080 BC, and the numbering is from this point.



As you can see, it takes them seven turns from 3080 bc to get to the outer rim of our cultural borders. Obviously, because of diagonal movement, they could be anywhere in that column. It would take them nine turns total to attack EotS - but this would have to be across a river. In 10 turns, they could reach the sheep tile or attack EotS without a river penalty.

So here's what I'm proposing. Remember that this map and counting begin TWO TURNS ago - the last time we knew exactly where the Vox warrior was.

1 - 3040 BC: EotS builds Worker 36/60 + 6
2 - 3000 BC: EotS builds Worker 42/60 + 6 (last turn)
3 - 2960 BC: EotS builds Worker 48/60 + 6 (this turn)
4 - 2920 BC: EotS builds Worker 54/60 + 6
5 - 2880 BC: EotS builds Skirm 0/25 + 7
Worker: Completed. Moves TWO tiles WEST of EotS (4-4), to start a cottage.
Workforce: Changing workforce to forest/hills, total production of 5/7/1, which means we are losing one food from surplus box.
6 - 2840 BC: EotS builds Skirmisher 7/25 + 6.
Vox: We should be able to see their warrior one tile outside our border.
Workforce: Change workforce to forest/grassland+plains, total tile producton of 6/6/1, back to breaking even on food.
Worker: Starts COttage
7 - 2800 BC: EotS builds Skirm 13/25 + 6
Vox: Their warrior will have entered our borders when we open the save.
8 - 2760 BC: EotS builds Skirm 19/25 + 6
Vox: Their warrior will be across the river from EotS when we open the save.
9 - 2720 BC: Skirm is ready. Build something else.
Vox: When we open the save, Vox could have moved their warrior to attack us across the river (less than 4% chance of victory) or they could have moved either north or south of EotS.
Skirm: Attacks Vox Warrior and kills him, or blocks him out somehow. Note that he can't be out of range, and there's no way he can reach the worker without us getting a crack at him.

Now, I'd really like someone to check my time-frame-reference to make sure it all happens in this order (ie who gets to move when, and who produces when), but I think this is correct.

With this plan, Vox get an across-river attack at us, which is a <4% chance of losing the game, but I think that's worth taking.

Thoughts?

PS Also, we could build the cottage 4-7 of EotS, which means we might have to run when their warrior steps on the sheep. From the NE. There's no way to get our skirm between their warrior and the worker if this is the case. But we wouldn't lose the cottage, because we would kill them if they tried to step there.

[Ennet]

They'll have an even less chance than us for a successful attack, not to mention is that we'll see them when we finish our worker build if they're heading our way, and can then decide if we would want to go for a quick warrior which we'll finish in time before they reach us.. but unless he has gained a combat I + shock promotion from a hut, we'll be safe with the skirm.

EDIT: Nice calc Mudhut, but should they take the path you used in your calculation we could go ahead and mine the sheep, only if they go north and doesnt have to move up next to our captial should we have to worry about them pillaging the mine..

[Mudhut]

Yup, Ennet, they could be anywhere on that column when they show up. I just picked a random path to illustrate how long it would take them to get to our capital. Diagonal movement means the vertical axis doesn't matter here.

But if they did come from the North East, they would be able to get to the sheep tile before our skirmisher could hit them.

Although, now that I think about it, would could start on the mine anyway, because we get enough notice of their impending approach to reroute the worker. If they show up to the North East in 2800 BC or whatever, we simply bring the mine to within one turn of completion - *but don't finish it off*. They can't pillage what isn't built. We'll need to bring our skirm out, scare them off, and then spend one turn to move back and finish it off - which will cost us a two turns in lost worker movement, but that's it!

[Ennet]

Good thinking

[Blake]

Here are across-the-river odds...

Our Defensive bonuses: +25% from fort, +25% from city (warrior ability), +20% from culture = +65%.
Vox penalties: -25% from river (calculated as 2/1.25)

Total = 1.6 (Vox) vs 3.3 (GS) - these are 0.8% odds.
That's 1 in 110 odds.
I personally feel it's a flaw in the game that a unit can win at those odds at all (at a certain point the probability tree should be pruned). But anyway it can win. The question really is whether they'd be willing to fight such an absurdly low odds battle and whether we should worry about extreme improbabilities...

[Ennet]

Well otherwise they wouldn't be odds anymore, but im agreeing with you anyway(more fun with less randomness, but no fun without it). Think i won at 0,5% odds once in what was meant only a way to hurt the defender so my more valuable units could then finish them off with a better chance of success.. Lost two 98% odds in the same attack once too, but the probability is so small for all of this that you cant really count on them.. they will occur once in a while but hey, nothing one can do anything about, cant really take the odds into account either way.. i usually count the outcome to be worse than the displayed odds, but i generally take odds over 90% pretty much for granted..

[Blake]

I take better than 99% odds for granted...
but I've lost 100% odds (Archer vs archer with insane defensive bonuses).
3 vs 8.250
And won at 0% odds (catapult vs longbow with insane defensive bonuses)

My catapults routinely defend against Horse Archers, one catapult took no damage (6.6 vs 3.33) the odds of that was about 1 in 20,000. I bet the AI threw a hissy fit...

If this was a game against raging barbarbians - I would not chance even a 0.8% odds fight, but that's because the barbs always attack so the odds are actually 1/110. Vox are far from guaranteed to attack so the odds are much lower... they'd probably be like "if the odds are 25% or better we should consider going for it". If I thought Vox would actually eliminate us with their warrior I'd buy a lotto ticket...

We should train a skirmisher next and call them dickheads if they make the move and it actually suceeds (no need to be gracious in such a defeat).

[Theseus]

Hmmm. Well, call me an ole grandma, but I say why take the chance. I'd build a Warrior now and fortify it, then finish the Worker, and adjust depending on the path of the incoming Vox Warrior. I don;t think the lost Worker time would be meaningful.