Turn 25, 3040BC

[Hot Mustard]

Turn 25, 3040BC (current plan)

Units
Grog: 2/2, 1/2 Exp. Move 3
Spinebreaker: 2/2 2/5 Exp (W1). Most likely Heal
Thug: 2/2, 0/2 Exp. Fort in EotS

Science
Current: Archery in 4 turns
Polytheism 134/143


Cities

Eye of the Storm (Size 3) WF on auto
Growth: 3/26, paused for Worker build
Production: Worker in 4 turns

Diplomacy
None

Other
None

[notyoueither]

It appears as if we have a ~24% shot at taking out Vox, since their warrior will get back to the Voice just ahead of Grog getting there. Do we want to take that shot?

I suppose we'll see better from that hill.

[Blake]

If I'm not mistaken they'll train a new warrior next turn - unless they aren't actually putting hammers into a warrior.

[alva]

Originally posted by notyoueither
It appears as if we have a ~24% shot at taking out Vox, since their warrior will get back to the Voice just ahead of Grog getting there. Do we want to take that shot?

I suppose we'll see better from that hill.

Some random thoughts/questions.

1. How costly would that warrior be?

2. Isn't he more usefull...errr...not getting killed?

3. What can we do with diplomatically? Threatning to attack and possible take the city might be worth something to Vox. (we could get a good peace deal here).

[Arrian]

If we have a ~24% shot of taking them out, I think we have to seriously consider it.

-Arrian

[vmxa1]

I do not see what we have to gain from diplomacy at this point. what could they offer us? They cannot even offer to not spread their religion to us.

The farther the game progress the better for them as oppossed to where they are right now. We are fairly sure we can take them out in the near future and gain a lot.

We need that gain to make up what the cost we are now paying.

[Theseus]

I would only make that attack bet at 67% or higher.

Given the current circumstance, the problem is that if we lose, we gain NOTHING. We'd then have lost our intel advantage and local threat, and any damage to Vox would simply heal.

Attack when we can at least keep the pressure on.

ps: Diplo? We don' need no steenken' diplo!!

[Hot Mustard]

While 24% is high for attacking a city, it is still 76% chance that Grog dies, our forces are cut by a third, we lose vital scouting information, and have nothing to show for it.

[Cort Haus]

Originally posted by Theseus
I would only make that attack bet at 67% or higher.

Given the current circumstance, the problem is that if we lose, we gain NOTHING. We'd then have lost our intel advantage and local threat, and any damage to Vox would simply heal.

Their warrior would get XP too.

[Arrian]

Well then, it appears I'm alone (or at least in the minority) in thinking that taking a 1 in 4 chance at ending this in one shot might be worthwhile.

The conservative approach is fine by me, as I'm generally conservative in these games. But I don't think taking the chance would be bad play.

-Arrian

[notyoueither]

I agree, Arrian, the shot is tempting... assuming they are putting hammers into something other than a warrior as Blake pointed out.

However, the others are right. If we lose we lose the first part of the choke and then they could send a warrior to us and reverse the situation.

I think the right play is for Grog to stay on high ground/bushes in Vox land and give the Voice nightmares.

[DeepO]

Originally posted by notyoueither
I think the right play is for Grog to stay on high ground/bushes in Vox land and give the Voice nightmares.

Indeed.

1 in 4 aren't too bad odds... very tempting indeed. The cost of failing is very high, though. They could even move their (promoted?) warrior towards us, and start choking us!

DeepO

[Arrian]

I suppose. I have a bit of the gambler in me, though.

So be it. We go the safe road.

-Arrian

[DeepO]

Oh, I'm a gambler myself... but when there is a high risk of losing, it's always good to see what the cost of losing will be. If that cost would be lower (e.g. because our second warrior is only 3 tiles away), I wouldn't hesitate. 1 in 4 is a very decent shot at the biggest prize possible this early in the game.

DeepO

[Ennet]

Do we get a 1/4 chance of taking their capitol, which i doubt we will, i think we should take it