KGB Update and Discussion

[Ennet]

Thanks that explains will update my assumptions accordingly

[Ennet]

note: under construction

T# Year 
 1 4000  Mercs, Vox & Nana settles 
 2 3960  
 3 3920  We, AC & Sara settled last turn
 4 3880  Horde Settled last turn  
 5 3840  AC gain tech. (Animal Husbandry/Hunting)
 6 3800
 7 3760  Vox gain tech, Mysticism. Nana gain tech (Fishing/Pottery/Mysticism)
 8 3720  Vox size 2. Sara gain tech, Mysticism.
 9 3680  We discover Mysticism.
10 3640  EotS size 2. Sara(or AC) size 2. AC(or Sara) gain tech(?) Horde gain tech(?) Vox build their first warrior.
11 3600  Nana & Horde size 2.
12 3560
13 3520  Merc gain tech, Bronzeworking.  
14 3480  
15 3440  Sara gain tech, Buddism. Sara founds Buddism.
16 3400  EotS size 3.
17 3360  Vox size 3. Vox gain tech, Hinduism. Vox founds Hinduism. We built our first warrior(last turn).
18 3320  Nana gain tech(?). Vox adopts Hinduism.
19 3280  Horde size 3. AC gain tech, (?).
20 3240  Merc gain tech (?). Sara gain tech (?)
21 3200  
22 3160  AC(or Sara) size 2.
23 3120  Merc size 2
24 3080   
25 3040  Vox builds their second warrior.
26 3000  AC size 3.
27 2960  Vox size 4, Sara size 3.

What follows is a list of how i have made the conclusions and other speculations.
First off i counted any differences in average population from nye's stats. By multipling the difference with 6 (the number of opponents) you get the total shift in population that turn. The population levels make it even easier to tell whats going on.
A size 1 city has 1000 population.
A size 2 city has 5000 population.
A size 3 city has 21000 population.
A size 4 city has 48000 population.
So if you calculate there is a shift of 4000 population a turn you can see that someone just grew to size 2 for an example. (5000-1000)
After doing this for all turns I got the following results:
Growth to size 2: 8,10,11,11,22,23
Growth to size 3: 17, 19, 26, 27
Growth to size 4: 27
We can easily see that Vox has the only size 4 city (as we had a unit next to it) on turn 27.
Further nye found these changes in score when he added population in a sim.
pop1 = 6(or 5?) score
pop2 = +6score
pop3 = +6score
pop4 = +6score
pop5 = +7score
and then +6 for each pop until size ten where it increases with 7 again.
Starting with the easiest ones we see that there were two civilizations that increased in population in turn 11. And while Banana and Horde were the only ones that increased in score (both by 6) we can assume these were the two civs that grew that turn.
Moving to the growths to size 3 for a bit now. On turn 17 a civ grew its city to size three. From top5 cities screen we can tell that this city was founded 4000 which only leaves Vox, Banana and Mercs. Vox were also the only one to increase in score this turn (by 13)
6 of those must've came from the population growth and the remaining 7 must've come from them founding Hinduism.
From nye's experiment we know that the ancient techs add to score: 6,7,6,7,7,6,6,7,6,7,7,6,7,7,6,7
We also know that Vox must've researched mysticism first, so it makes sence they got 7pts from the tech and also they must've grown to size too earlier aswell.
The only possibility for their growth to size 2 is turn 8, when there both was a matching shift in avg.population and a Voxian score increase. That leaves their research of mysticism to the turn before that, turn 7.
We can also tell that Horde were the one that grew on turn 19. (from top5 cities, they were the only ones that settled in 3920BC) there is also a match in score increase. From top5 cities list we can also tell that it was AC and Sara that grew in turn 26 & 27.
As Sara were the only of the two that increased in score on turn 27 we understand it was them that grew this turn. (And AC on turn 26).
Remaining to be explained is who grew to size 2 in: 10, 22 & 23. The possible candidates left are: Mercs, AC and Sara.
In turn 23 Mercs is the only of the three that increase in score, that also the only turn Mercs grow in score and match a population growth. Who of Sara and AC that grew in 10 and 22 will we return to later, both increased in score on those turns and AC increased with 7 both times which may indicate that irregular score increases from population and techs may derive from decimals that we do not see.

Now we're going to turn our attension to the Soldiers stats for a bit. Following is a list of shift in soldiers, calculated the same way I calculated the change in population. (Multiplying the shift in average population with the number of opponents (6)).
(format is: [turn#] +[shift ins oldiers])
t5 +2000, t7 +2000, t8 +2000, t10 +12000, t11 +2000, t13 +8000, t14 +1000, t18 +2000, t19 +2000, t20 +6000, t21 +2000, t22 +4000, t23 -2000, t25 +6000, t27 +3000
From the link vmxa1 so kindly provided i found out that: "For every two population points from all your cities you get 1000 soldiers." So on turns 8,10,11,22 & 23 there will be a shift in a 1000 soldiers due to city growth. (Note: on turn 11, it will be 2000) And likewise will there be a change of 1000 soldiers from pop on turn 27 when Vox grow to size 4. Being done with the soldiers from population growth let us try to explain the rest of the changes.
On turn 5 there was a change is 2000 soldiers and AC gained 6 score. Obviously they got a 2k soldier tech from a hut. Starting with Agriculture & Mining, the possibilities are: Animal Husbandry or Hunting.
On turn 13 there was a shift of 8000 soldiers and Mercs had their first score increase. (They were also the only ones that gained any score that turn).
Bronze Working is the only tech in the ancient era thats worth 8000 soldiers and starting with Mining (& Hunting), the Mercs can have researched this. I think someone counted the beakers and confirmed they could have researched it in that time earlier in this thread but we'll come back to this when we start examine the economy stats, in the meantime we assume they researched it.
Earlier we said Mysticism was researched by Vox on turn 7, so if you are keeping notes make sure to count a shift in 1000 soldiers for that turn.
By taking a quick look at scores we can also conclude that Sara and Bana got a tech each on turn 8 & 7 respectivetly. Each of these turns we have an unexplained increase of a 1000 soldiers left.
Lets take a look at turn 15, we got a message "Buddism has been founded in a distant land." Sara is the only one that increases in score (7), So we can assume they were the ones that researched and founded Buddism.
They must also have researched (or gained from a hut) Mysticism. They either did this in turn 8 or 10.
Ok Pause now, but have in mind: Did AC or Sara grow on turn 10? And did Sara gain Mysticism on turn 8 or 10?

What I am going to do now is to take a (very) wild guess. (Specialy as i dont know anything about how territory affects score).
Examining the irregularity of the population (6,6,6,6,7,6,6,6,6,7) and the techs (6,7,6,7,7,6,6,7,6,7,7,6,7,7,6,7).
If these irregularities were caused by decimals, then you must gain something between 6.20 and 6.24 for each population. Ran into some trouble regarding tech #7, need to verify how the scores add up.

Even without the aid above i think we can say that Sara researched Mysticism on turn 8, they wouldnt have been able to research Buddism in time if they would have researched Mysticism on turn 10. Gained it from a hut is possible but then they would have got two techs from a hut so i think its safe to say they researched myst in turn 8.
From Blakes calculation on vox production and the powergraph with us and vox (plus the confirmation with the sighting of their two warriors) we can see that they built a warrior on turn 10 and 25.
About the soldier shift in turn 7 and Bananas increase in score that same turn. Either Banana researched(or gained from a hut) a non-military tech (Fishing & Pottery possible as they started with Agriculture & The Wheel) and someone built a warrior or gained one from a hut. OR Banana got Mysticism(?). Need to check with hammers and beakers to see what's more likely.

That's it for now, I didnt really get any further than I had already come, but perhaps I have given some insight as to how I have been thinking.

To come: Who of Sara and AC that grew when. More speculations on score changes & changes to soldiers. Also: Going to check if 'best' and 'worst' stats in soldiers challenge any assumptions i have made. Going to check if production, food of beakers counters anything i've said. Going to Include hammers, food and beakers into the speculations in an further attempt to explain what's been going on. Going to speculate on the negative soldier shift of 3000 on turn 23.. (Yes it's 3000 and not 2000, as Mercs grew to size 2 which should have given them 1000 additional soldiers)

soldier changes left to explain:
t7 +1000, t10 +10000, t14 +1000, t18 +2000, t19 +2000, t20 +6000, t21 +2000, t22 +3000, t23 -3000, t25 +5000, t27 +2000

Links to information i've used:

http://forums.civfanatics.com/showthread.php?t=163098

http://apolyton.net/forums/showthread.php?s=&threadid=154472

[Ennet]

Ok every other population gives 1k soldiers, but not in this demogame...

[notyoueither]

Sorry I dropped this, Ennet. I am looking at it again.

1 error, Mysticism does not give 1000 soldiers.

Edit: Neither does Priesthood.

[notyoueither]

Originally posted by Ennet
Ok every other population gives 1k soldiers, but not in this demogame...

We grew from 7 to 8000 soldiers the turn EotS grew to size 2.

[Ennet]

ohh sorry thought as i thought mysticism gave 1k soldiers i came to the concultion we didnt gain any score when we grew. Dropped it aswell, a few things popped into real life, will try to spend some time with this in the upcomming week. Thanks for the corrections btw, was stuck there.

[notyoueither]

This is what I've got so far. Some of it is exact (we see a team increase in score, average pop increases by 5000, we know who grew to size 2). Some of it is a jig saw puzzle (assigning the numbers for soldiers increases).

I am updating the demo data this is derived from.

T01 4000BC Merc, Vox, Nana settled. 26 land tiles, 1 coast
T02 3960BC EotS, ACen, Sara settled.
T03 3920BC Merc, Vox, Nana borders expand. BlOH settled. 74 land tiles, 7 coast (3 coast for ACen or Sara)
T04 3880BC 82 land tiles, 8 coast (BlOH has 1 coast). 5/8 coast accounted for
T05 3840BC ACen pop Hunt/AH
T06 3800BC BlOH borders expand
T07 3760BC Vox (Mysticism) and Nana discover tech. Nana discovered AH/Hunt/Mine
--- ------ GS, ACen, Sara borders expand (16 land, 8 coast between ACen and Sara)
T08 3720BC The Voice size 2.
--- ------ Sara discover tech (Mysticism)
--- ------ Nana complete warrior
T09 3680BC GS discover Mysticism
T10 3640BC EotS and Sara size 2
--- ------ BlOH (Archery) and ACen (hunt/AH) tech
T11 3600BC Nana and BlOH size 2
T12 3560BC No changes
T13 3520BC Merc discover Archery. Sara gains warrior. Another warrior pops/completes for Merc or Nana
T14 3480BC Warrior pops/completes for Merc or Nana
T15 3440BC Sara discover Meditation. Buddhism in Sara cap.
T16 3400BC EotS size 3
T17 3360BC The Voice size 3. Vox discover Polytheism. Hinduism in The Voice
--- ------ GS gain contact with Vox, complete 2nd warrior
T18 3320BC Nana tech. Vox anarchy
T19 3280BC BlOH size 3. Complete archer. ACen disc Fish/Mason/Myst
--- ------ Life Expectancy Best increases from 85 to 87, Health resource hooked up by Sara, Merc, or ACen
--- ------ GS declare war on Vox, Vox lose scout
T20 3240BC Merc (the Wheel) and Sara (Hunt/Sail) tech
T21 3200BC BlOH tech. Most likely AH/Mine. GS completes 3rd warrior
--- ------ Scores from Land Area begin (Merc, Vox, Nana). Vox 2nd border expansion
T22 3160BC ACen size 2. Health resource hooked up
T23 3120BC GS discover Hunting. Merc size 2
T24 3080BC Nana discover Fish/Pott/Myst/Masonry
T25 3040BC Merc, Nana, Sara 2nd border expansion. +35 land, +13 water tiles
T26 3000BC ACen size 3
T27 2960BC The Voice size 4, Sara size 3
T28 2920BC BlOH tech. 2nd border expansion for BlOH
T29 2880BC GS discover Archery. Sara tech
T30 2840BC Merc and ACen disc tech. ACen size 4
T31 2800BC Vox disc Archery(? will be confirmed with our T32 if they have a v large power jump)

[notyoueither]

http://www.apolyton.net/forums/showthread.php?s=&threadid=154472

Top 5 cities, Econ, Soldiers, Land Area, and population updated with some puzzles added (assigning exact numbers to each civ).

If people are interested, it would be helpful if someone double checked to make sure my numbers are all correct.

Here's an excel spreadsheet with all of the info (including some not yet posted, like approval, life exp, and the flat lining imports/exports. I'm adding things as I go and am wondering how far this project can be pushed. Is it possible to nail everything down through the first ~50 turns using the info provided by the game and some reasonable guesses? What is the answer to the Universe? Am I quite mad?

[Krill]

Jesus Wept...that is ungodly...

[notyoueither]

Originally posted by Ennet
13 3520 Merc gain tech, Bronzeworking.

Here's a major difference in our reckonings.

True, soldiers went up 8000, but worst also increased by 1000 so nobody could have disc BW that turn.

Also, Sara grew to size 2 (+1000 soldiers to 5000, worst).

More likely Merc got Archery and Merc or Nana gained a warrior.

The following turn the other of Merc or Nana gained a warrior.

[Ennet]

Like mentioned above i made a bad concusion about pop effects on soldiers and worked from there. Also I must admit i never got as far as checking with min/max values that was my next step. I tried to work methodical by adding layer of layer of information to my conculsions, so i wouldnt get overwhealmed and miss something, but never got any further as i was uncertain to the mechanics of the game and had to stop. Great work nye.

edit(about turn 13): or rather i think i checked the min/max value but worked beliving myst. gave another 1k soldiers, from where i could make those assumptions.

[Ennet]

Ok i have possibly found a cool think, as you build grow research etc at end of turn this can affect the Demographics, making it look like you get hammers/commerce/food for a turn, that you actually dont get.. (due to the tiles being automatically assigned after city growth at the end of turn) Think Blake or someone might have mentioned something about this earlier but i didnt understood what they ment until now. Made some sence to otherwise wierd statistics

[Ennet]

Originally posted by notyoueither
Here's a major difference in our reckonings.

True, soldiers went up 8000, but worst also increased by 1000 so nobody could have disc BW that turn.

Depends, either Mercs or Sara popped a warrior on turn 10. If it was Sara, they would be 5k and Mercs 4k. Mercs could then easily have gotten BW and increased to 12k.
Not sure if its the most likely, but its at least possible.. I think

[Ennet]

Sorry for this spam, just came to think of something. On turn 23 there is a loss of 3k soldiers. Possible or perhaps probably from two teams fighting eachother. Possible one or two warriors lost to animals. Three seems a bit much. Anyway i mentioned this before, wasnt what i came to think of.
The stats we see in the Demographs screen are how the tiles are allocated, not what the team worked at the end of their turn. When a city grows, a borders expands or an enemy walk onto the tile, it gets relocated. So when we walked on that gold hill, being worked by Vox twice during our invation, any team after us would not see Vox working that time and their stats would be messed up. This will be true for any other teams aswell, so if two other teams are at war and either of them attempt to choke the other, we must be prepared that the stats dont show everything.

[Ennet]

Have an sort of odd request, something really wierd happened today. Suddenly I just couldnt load the Demogame mod anymore, just doesnt work. Havnt made any changes of any kind at all which is why im so puzzled. Anyway could someone load up the 3600BC savegame, make sure we work all foodplains and fire up the demographics and look at what rank we are in Mfg. Goods?