KGB Update and Discussion

[notyoueither]

Originally posted by vulture
Now that poly is working again...

Important question: are we allowed to use old saves (turn 10
specifically) to replay exactly the same moves (to avoid seeing new
info), but play around with changeable things like assigning workers to
different tiles to see how the demographics change?

Yes, I think so. The general rule is don't do anything that needs a reload to reverse.

[vulture]

Some demographics notes as of 3560 BC (turn 12):

Our manufacturing has moved back up to 5th - someone has switched from a tile producing 1 hammer to one producing 0 hammers this turn. Since 2 civs grew the previous turn, it will probably have been one of the civs reallocating the tile the AI governor assigned to them when they grew.

2 Civs are still size 1. If the KGB thread info is accurate, and banana was the only civ working a 4 food tile, then all civs should have grown by now. So it seems that 2 teams have gone worker first.

We've dropped to 3rd in military in the last 2 turns. The jump of 2000 in 3640 BC is due to city growth and a jump of 12,000 soldiers occurred the turn before. 1000 of that is due to city growth, so 11k is due to warriors are techs. Unlikely to have built any warriors by then, and not many are going to be popped on the same turn, so it is mostly going to be techs.

From the previous KGB thread, possibilities are:
Bronze working 8k
Archery 6k
Wheel 4k
other techs: 2k

So say we have archery, wheel and a warrior appearing in 3640. Not the only possible combination, but it appears that one or two military techs are loose in the world.

[vulture]

Playing with the numbers some more:

Banana weren't building a warrior or a worker. Scout seems the most likely bet.

Mercs are building a worker.

One of {AC, Horde} has 8 food and is growing at a hell of a pace.

One of {AC, Sara} is producing a worker. The other one has completed a warrior.

Either Mercs or Banana researched archery in 3680 - that's the turn enough beakers accumulate to get archery, and the turn there is an 11,000 jump in soldiers. At a guess, the other one completed the Wheel at the same time.

By my reckonings, Vox could have completed a warrior or scout at the start of 3600 (turn 11).

[vulture]

More analysis, including the effects of scores:

AC popped hunting in turn 5, researched archery in turn 10, are still size 1 and therefore are building a worker (assuming archery gives 7 score, not 6 like 1st tier techs).

Saranium researched hunting in turn 8, grew in turn 10, and has built a warrior.

Horde are the team with 8 food. The tech situation is a bit of a mystery. The change in numbers of soldiers suggests they got the Wheel (11k soldiers then come out as 6k for AC with archery, 4K for horde with wheel, 1k from Saranium growing to size 2). But if they were getting 10 beakers per turn (plus 1 phantom - IIRC from earlier in this thread they don't get a bonus from 3 teams having the tech already), they can only have 77 beakers at this point, which isn't enough for the wheel. However I don't know enough about how exactly research bonuses work in this game to draw any too-firm conclusions.

Mercenaries have not grown and haven't researched a tech yet. So they are going for an expensive tech, and producing a worker.

[vulture]

I think I've finally figured out all the changes on turn 10. It can't have been AC who researched archery - it doesn't fit in with the max soldiers scores and our position.

So, what we have, that fits with all the data as far as I can see, is:

Mercs: Have not grown and researched no techs: they are therefore going worker first and researching something expensive: Animal husbandry or Bronze working.

Vox: Got mysticism or agriculture on turn 7, grew on turn 8, got warrior on turn 10

Banana: Got mining on turn 7, built warrior on turn 8, grew on turn 11

Horde: Got archery on turn 10, grew on turn 11. As mentioned before, they've found a site with 8 food at size 2, so they'll quickly make up for founding later than everyone else.

AC: Popped hunting turn 5, researched animal husbandry or sailing turn 10 (nothing else would take that long and give 2k military), haven't grown, so building a worker. I can only make all the numbers fit if they got a warrior on turn 10. Seems unlikely that they'd have built it and then gone for a worker 1 turn from growing to size 2, so more likely they popped it - nice huts for AC. Re sailing vs AH - sailing would make sense since they are almost certainly coastal, were it not for the fact that I can't see any way for them to get fishing (the score doesn't fit). So AH is the only possibility. So they're not in the religion race.

Saranium: researched agriculture or mysticism in turn 8, grew and completed a warrior in turn 10.

This all requires 3 warriors to appear in turn 10: Sara and AC would both compete one that turn with warrior first and 2 hammers per turn (although Sara haven't grown...) Vox can complete one that turn with 1 shield per turn and growing to size 2, with their 1 turn of working a 0/2/3 tile (I think).

Vox and Sara both got mysticism (or agriculture) before us, and evidently have higher beaker outputs than us.

[vulture]

Continuing the trend of talking to one's-self:

Vox can finish a warrior turn 10 *if* hammer production when you grow works like in civ3. When they receive the 3760 save (turn 7) they have 18 food in their food box, and 6 hammers. But in civ3 their production for that turn would be more than 1 hammer (shield) since food / growth is processed before hammers and beakers - so they get the extra hammer that their governor assigned, putting them at 8 in turn 8. They then work a 0/2/3 tile for 1 turn (for 3 shields total), giving them 11, before switching to a 1/1/1 tile for 2 turns, putting them at 15 shields and a nice warrior, built at the end of their turn 10, and therefore showing up in our turn 10 (after them). Correct me if I am mistaken on any of the mechanics.

[Dominae]

I'm relatively certain that you do not get the Hammers from a new Laborer on the same turn as city growth.

Also, as far as I know, there's no way of getting better than +3fpt without tile improvements. No team can be growing faster than us at this point (although some teams do have a one turn head start). Maybe I'm misunderstanding this part:

As mentioned before, they've found a site with 8 food at size 2, so they'll quickly make up for founding later than everyone else.

[vulture]

I'm fairly confident that something is wrong in my summary - it's all shoe-horned together fairly uncomfortably, but I haven't found a scenario that fits better yet.

ON the horde food thing, I misread my notes, and thought we had 7 food and someone else had 8. Silly me. I'll check things tomorrow to make sure I haven't screwed anything else up too badly.

[vmxa1]

Not to worry vulture. It is good to put out your thoughts and see if they can be confirmed or shot down. It is a good starting point.

[vulture]

One thing I am pretty certain about: the Mercenaries got bronze working this turn, giving them their score jump, pushing up the total number of soldiers by 8k, theirs from 4k (last) to 8k (2nd) and pushing us to 4th in that category.

Which means that they've gained 171 beakers in 13 turns - that's a shade over 13 beakers per turn, confirming that they are a 13 beaker civ (with 1 beaker from the ether). At least they're not in the religion race.

[Ennet]

Originally posted by Dominae

Also, as far as I know, there's no way of getting better than +3fpt without tile improvements. No team can be growing faster than us at this point (although some teams do have a one turn head start). Maybe I'm misunderstanding this part:

quote:
As mentioned before, they've found a site with 8 food at size 2, so they'll quickly make up for founding later than everyone else.

City Square = 2fpt, and then 2 x 3fpt squares?

[notyoueither]

Wake up, guys. We have quite a bit of info on Vox from the graphs of food, mfg, comm, etc.

Can we get a confirmed summary of what techs Vox has? Army strength?

[Blake]

Well, their hammer graph equals ours at the moment.
That means they aren't rushing us... yet.
Altough it did pulse earlier, I assume to complete a scout or warrior, probably a warrior actually, for city defense.

GNP graph is pretty weird.

Crop yield looks good for us... probably makes it very obvious we are floodplains.

[notyoueither]

I will link to this thread for discussion for KGB Stats.

[notyoueither]

Comments on this welcome. It looks nuts to me.

Soldiers

              us     best     avrg    worst  rank
T# Year
 1 4000    7,000    6,000    4,166    3,000     1
 2 3960        -        -        -        -     -
 3 3920        -        -        -        -     -
 4 3880        -        -        -        -     -
 5 3840        -        -    4,500        -     -
 6 3800        -        -        -        -     -
 7 3760        -    7,000    4,833        -     -
 8 3720        -    8,000    5,166        -     2
 9 3680        -        -        -        -     -
10 3640    8,000   12,000    7,166    4,000     -
11 3600        -   13,000    7,500        -     3
12 3560        -        -        -        -     -
13 3520        -        -    8,833    5,000     4
14 3480        -        -    9,000        -     -
15 3440        -        -        -        -     -
16 3400        -        -        -        -     -
17 3360    9,000        -        -        -     -
18 3320        -        -    9,333        -     -
19 3280        -   15,000    9,666        -     -
20 3240        -   16,000   10,666    6,000     -
21 3200   10,000   17,000   11,000        -     -
22 3160        -        -   11,666        -     -
23 3120   12,000        -   11,333        -     3
24 3080        -        -        -        -     -
25 3040        -   21,000   12,333    7,000     -